US embassy cable - 00HARARE6564

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06564  01 OF 03  221603Z 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC 
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE 
NOVEMBER 24 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 21, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, 
PRESIDENT OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC 
CHANGE (MDC), BRIEFED THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON THE 
MDC VIEW OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE IN THE CONTEXT OF 
AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE TO BE HELD IN BOTSWANA NOVEMBER 24 
TO DECEMBER 1.  TSVANGIRAI SAID IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR 
SADC, THE EU, AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEAL 
WITH ZIMBABWE'S CRISIS WITH FORESIGHT.  THE MDC LEADER 
STATED THAT HE IS NOT SEEKING INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, BUT SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC 
PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE.  TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC 
HAD TRIED TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE (GOZ) AND THE RULING ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT 
SINCE THE JUNE ELECTIONS, BUT HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY MET 
WITH HOSTILITY AND VINDICTIVENESS.  HE OUTLINED FOUR 
FUTURE SCENARIOS OF DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS HE AND HIS 
PARTY ARE CONSIDERING: 1) WAITING FOR THE 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 2) EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 
3) MASS ACTION WITH NO GOVERNMENT REPRESSION, AND 4) 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06564  01 OF 03  221603Z 
MASS ACTION RESULTING IN POLICE AND MILITARY REPRESSION 
THAT COULD LEAD TO MARTIAL LAW.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A DECISION ON THE QUESTION 
OF MASS ACTION, AND THE PARTY COUNCIL WILL MEET NOVEMBER 
24 TO VOTE WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE'S DECISION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2. (C) ECONOFF ATTENDED A NOVEMBER 21 BRIEFING BY THE 
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR THE HARARE 
DIPLOMATIC CORPS.  THE BRIEFING WAS WELL ATTENDED BY 
REPRESENTATIVES FROM ALL THE MAJOR DONOR COUNTRIES. 
TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PURPOSE OF THE BRIEFING WAS TO SHARE 
 
SIPDIS 
THE MDC'S PERSPECTIVE ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE PRIOR TO 
AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE IN BOTSWANA FROM NOVEMBER 24 TO 
DECEMBER 1.  HE STATED THAT THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR HAD 
WANTED THE MDC INVITED TO THE CONFERENCE, BUT THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT OF BOTSWANA HAD VETOED THIS DECISION AS 
"UNDEMOCRATIC."  (NOTE: TSVANGIRAI DID NOT SAY WHAT 
COUNTRY THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR WAS ACCREDITED TO, AND 
ECONOFF WAS NOT ABLE TO GET A CLARIFICATION ON THIS. 
END NOTE.) 
 
--------------------------------------- 
THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC IS NOT SEEKING THE 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06564  01 OF 03  221603Z 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S SUPPORT FOR THE PARTY.  WHAT 
IS CRITICAL IS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORTS 
HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE. 
WHEN ASKED WHAT HAD BEEN HIS GOAL IN MEETING WITH NELSON 
MANDELA A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS 
TWO-FOLD: FIRST, MANDELA HAS TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE AND 
CLOUT IN THE REGION, AND COULD COMMUNICATE TO THE 
GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA THE IMPORTANCE OF REVIEWING 
ITS POSITION ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE; AND SECOND, TO 
GIVE ASSURANCE THAT AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT SEEK 
RETRIBUTION AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE.  HE STATED THAT HE 
WAS NOT ASKING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, OR MANDELA, 
TO APPLY PRESSURE TO THE GOZ, BUT RATHER TO BRING REASON 
TO BEAR. 
 
-------------------------------- 
DEALING WITH ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ 
-------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC HAD TRIED (AFTER 
THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS) TO WORK WITH THE GOZ 
AND ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT ON ISSUES OF COMMON CONCERN, 
SUCH AS THE ECONOMY AND LAND REFORM, BUT FOUND THE GOZ 
AND ZANU-PF VINDICTIVE AND UNWILLING TO WORK WITH THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY.  THE MDC LEADER EXPLAINED THAT ZANU-PF 
IS UNWILLING TO ACCEPT THAT PUBLIC OPINION IN MUCH OF 
THE COUNTRY IS AGAINST THEM, AND IT IS WILLING TO USE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4750 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06564  02 OF 03  221604Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------A2C377  221613Z /38 
P 221602Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7682 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06564  02 OF 03  221604Z 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC 
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE 
NOVEMBER 24 
 
VIOLENCE TO STAY IN POWER.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THIS IS 
EXEMPLIFIED BY THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE OCCURRING IN 
MARONDERA WEST, WHERE A BY-ELECTION FOR A SEAT IN 
PARLIAMENT WILL BE HELD ON NOVEMBER 25 AND 26.  HE WAS 
SCHEDULED TO SPEAK AT AN MDC RALLY IN MARONDERA ON 
NOVEMBER 17, BUT CANCELLED WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR THAT WAR 
VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE 
TO DISRUPT THE RALLY. 
 (NOTE: A VIOLENT ALTERCATION 
BETWEEN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AND MDC SUPPORTERS IN 
MARONDERA STILL OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 17, AND AN INNOCENT 
BYSTANDER WAS SHOT DEAD IN AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE.  END 
NOTE).  TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS CLEAR THERE CAN BE NO 
PEACEFUL FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, 
AND THAT THE MDC WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED INTO 
WITHDRAWING FROM THIS OR OTHER ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE. 
 
------------------------- 
THE FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS 
------------------------- 
 
5. (C) TSVANGIRAI TOLD HIS AUDIENCE THAT THE MDC WAS NOW 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06564  02 OF 03  221604Z 
CONSIDERING FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR ITS ROLE IN 
ZIMBABWE'S FUTURE: 
 
  1) WAIT FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. 
 
     THE PROBLEM WITH THIS STRATEGY IS THAT PEOPLE ARE 
     IMPATIENT AND WANT CHANGE NOW.  HE ALSO QUESTIONED 
     WHO WAS GOING TO UNDERWRITE THE GOZ FOR THE NEXT 18 
     MONTHS WHILE IT DESTROYS THE ECONOMY. 
 
  2) AN ACCELERATED CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS LEADING TO 
     EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. 
 
     HE SAID THIS WAS A LEGITIMATE OPTION BECAUSE 
     PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS LOST HIS MANDATE TO RULE, 
     AND WHY SHOULD THE PEOPLE WAIT 18 MONTHS FOR A 
     CHANGE WHEN THE COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD IT. 
 
  3) A MASS ACTION. 
 
     THE QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL IT OCCUR, AND WILL 
     IT PLUNGE ZIMBABWE INTO CHAOS?  HE STATED THAT HE 
     WANTED ANY MASS ACTION TO BE PEACEFUL AND WITHIN 
     THE LAW, AND THAT THE GOZ WILL NOT RESPOND WITH 
     FORCE AGAINST A PEACEFUL MASS ACTION. 
 
  4) A MASS ACTION WITH GOZ REPRESSION. 
 
     TSVANGIRAI TOLD THE GROUP THAT HE WAS CONCERNED 
     THAT A MASS ACTION WOULD BE MET BY SEVERE POLICE 
     AND MILITARY REPRESSION, POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06564  02 OF 03  221604Z 
     MARTIAL LAW.  HE DID NOT BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO 
     WOULD HAPPEN, BECAUSE THE POLICE AND MILITARY IN 
     ZIMBABWE RESPECT THE CONSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF 
     CIVILIAN CONTROL. 
 
------------------------------------ 
MDC TO LEAD MASS ACTION IN DECEMBER? 
------------------------------------ 
 
6. (C) AFTER LAYING OUT THESE SCENARIOS, TSVANGIRAI TOLD 
THE GATHERING THAT THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A 
DECISION REGARDING WHETHER TO CALL FOR A MASS ACTION. 
(COMMENT: TSVANGIRAI WAS DELIBERATELY VAGUE ON WHAT THE 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DECIDED.  END COMMENT.)  THE 
PARTY COUNCIL, REPRESENTING THE MDC'S 12 PROVINCES, WILL 
MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO VOTE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE 
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE'S DECISION.  (NOTE: THE MDC DIVIDES 
ZIMBABWE INTO 12 "PROVINCES" FOR REPRESENTATION ON ITS 
PARTY COUNCIL, WHICH IS THE SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY 
OF THE MDC.  THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE ACTS ON THE 
COUNCIL'S BEHALF WHEN IT IS NOT IN SESSION.  THE COUNCIL 
MEETS INFREQUENTLY AND ONLY TO MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS. 
END NOTE.) 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE WE HAVE STRONGLY COUNSELED 
TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC LEADERSHIP REGARDING THE RISKS OF 
 
SIPDIS 
CALLING FOR MARCHES OR DEMONSTRATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO 
FURTHER BLOODSHED AND REPRESSION, TSVANGIRAI'S BRIEFING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4751 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06564  03 OF 03  221604Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------A2C385  221613Z /38 
P 221602Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7683 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06564  03 OF 03  221604Z 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC 
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE 
NOVEMBER 24 
 
INDICATED THAT THE MDC IS STILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING 
SOME FORM OF MASS ACTION IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, 
PERHAPS TO COINCIDE WITH THE ZANU-PF PARTY CONGRESS IN 
DECEMBER.  HOWEVER, TSVANGIRAI CLEARLY DID NOT WANT TO 
PUT ALL HIS CARDS ON THE TABLE BY REVEALING THE NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE'S DECISION, POSSIBLY IN CASE THE PARTY COUNCIL 
TURNS DOWN ITS RECOMMENDATION ON THE FORM THE MASS 
ACTION SHOULD TAKE.  END COMMENT. 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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