US embassy cable - 04HARARE170

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA, PETERSEN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR PRATT, BARTON, KHANDAGLE, 
MENGHETTI, BORNS, MARX, HALMRAST-SANCHEZ 
AFR/SA FOR FLEURET, LOKEN, COPSON, BAKER, MACNAIRN 
STATE/AF FOR RAYNOR, DELISI 
PRETORIA FOR DIJKERMAN, DISKIN, HALE, REYNOLDS 
NAIROBI FOR SMITH, RILEY, BROWN 
LILONGWE FOR RUBEY, SINK, RUBEY 
LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, NIELSON 
MAPUTO FOR POLAND, BLISS, THOMPSON 
MASERU FOR AMB LOFTIS 
MBABANE FOR KENNA 
GABORONE FOR THOMAS, BROWN 
ROME FOR FODAG FOR LAVELLE, DAVIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI 
SUBJECT:  Rising Food Insecurity in Zimbabwe 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. The number of vulnerable households in Zimbabwe 
continues to rise as food staples become more expensive. 
Seed prices have risen beyond affordable levels for most 
ordinary farmers and the outlook for this year's 
agricultural season is not yet clear.  Continuing 
economic deterioration, disruptions to agriculture 
through on-going land seizures, poor distribution of 
rains, lack of draft animals or tractors for tillage, 
and HIV/AIDS have compounded the problem. During the 
next few months, the hungry period, 5 million rural 
Zimbabweans will be in need of food aid assistance.  In 
the urban areas, it is estimated that another 2.5 
million are food insecure. While donors have responded 
to the food crisis with substantial resources, currently 
meeting 80% of WFP's appeal, the Government of Zimbabwe 
(GOZ) has publicly acknowledged that it has acquired 
240,000 MT of grain, but it has not released this grain 
in any significant amounts or even disclosed its 
distribution plans. Post recommends that any further USG 
pledges of food commodities be placed on hold until 
greater transparency from the GOZ is forthcoming 
regarding use of its grain reserves. 
 
 
 
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INCREASING VULNERABILITY 
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2. As the price of maize, the staple food in Zimbabwe, 
has increased, it has becomes unaffordable to more 
households. Thus, the number of food insecure people has 
increased.  Zimbabwe is now in the "hungry period," 
which will last until the next harvest in April/May 
2004.  Most households have depleted the last of their 
stores and must now purchase food. Based on the current 
price of maize, the Famine Early Warning System 
(FEWSNET) has estimated that 5 million people are 
currently in need of food assistance. The FEWSNET 
previous estimate, based on prices in early 2003, was 
4.4 million. 
 
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INTERNATIONAL FOOD AID 
----------------------- 
 
3. With recent pledges from USAID and the EU, about 80% 
of the UN 2003-4 appeal (EMOP 10290) has been met, both 
in terms of dollars and food tonnage.  It is not 
certain, however, if food can be procured and delivered 
in time to avoid food pipeline breaks.  Already, because 
of delivery delays, WFP had to reduce the cereal ration 
for the month of December by half to 5 kg of grain per 
person.  Although the cereal ration was restored to 10 
kg per person in January, there were no pulses or oil in 
the ration for this month. 
 
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FOOD STOCKS 
------------ 
 
4. It is estimated that the GOZ has stored approximately 
240,000 MT of grain in Zimbabwe. The Grain Marketing 
Board (GMB) has reportedly been stockpiling grain in 
various depots around the country, and the GOZ has not 
been forthcoming with distribution plans for this grain. 
The UN Humanitarian Coordinator recently sent a letter 
to the GOZ requesting better coordination between the UN 
and the GOZ in this respect.  He wrote "I trust that GMB 
will fill the (food distribution) gap foreseen in the 
next couple of months", and requested that GOZ share 
whatever plans it might have to utilize the grain.  The 
WFP briefed the international press on January 22nd in 
Johannesburg on GMB food stockpiles, leading to stories 
in Reuters, the NY Times and elsewhere. 
 
5. On January 27, 2004, the front page headline of the 
Daily News, an independent newspaper in Zimbabwe, called 
for the release of the GOZ stockpiled maize.  There is 
dismay that the government is withholding this grain 
from hungry people and growing concern among Zimbabweans 
that it may be used by the GOZ for political purposes 
during the up-coming elections.  Donors are increasingly 
concerned that the GOZ is not contributing its fair 
share to the feeding of its own citizens.  These 
concerns are heightened by the GOZ's substantial and 
undistributed grain stocks.  Post recommends that any 
further USG pledges of food commodities be placed on 
hold until greater transparency from the GOZ is 
forthcoming regarding use of its grain reserves. 
 
 
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AGRICULTURE 
------------ 
 
6. The outlook for this year's agricultural season is 
unclear at this point, but preliminary information is 
troubling.  A joint FAO/WFP food and crop assessment 
mission will take place just before the harvest -- 
probably in early April.  Figures from the Agricultural 
Research and Extension (AREX) report of January 16, 2004 
show that, so far this season, the number of hectares of 
crops planted is below GOZ target levels for all crops: 
maize (target 3,500,000 ha, planted area 859,662 ha), 
sorghum (target 400,000 ha, planted area 207,255 ha); 
soybeans (target 300,000 ha, planted area 12,542 ha) and 
groundnuts (target 200,000 ha, planted area 170,153 ha). 
Most disturbing, however, is that the area planted for 
maize is estimated to have decreased: for the 02/03 
agricultural season, FAO estimated 1,395,000 ha planted 
for maize, whereas the estimate for the 03/04 season is 
down to 859,662 ha. 
 
7. Within the past few days, rains have been widespread 
in Zimbabwe, and the latest Rainfall Bulletin issued by 
the Department of Meteorological Services (Issue No. 11, 
January 21) reports that cumulative rainfall is more 
than 80% of normal rainfall amounts to date for most of 
the country, except for Manicaland, Mashonaland East and 
Mashonaland West, where rainfall levels are between 60% 
and 80% of normal.  The highest amounts of rainfall 
since October have been recorded in the central southern 
parts of the country, with the least (less than 200mm) 
over the east of Matebeleland South. 
 
8. While this is a significant improvement over the 
previous two years, the cumulative rainfall figures are 
quite deceptive and only tell part of the story.  The 
constancy and distribution of rainfall is critical for 
crop production, and rainfall this year has been very 
erratic. Over the past months rains were sporadic and 
varied throughout the country, with fairly good rains in 
November in some areas, followed by a dry spell. 
 
9. Some farmers who planted in November, when the first 
rains arrived, watched as their crops shriveled in the 
fields.  Those with enough seed have since replanted. 
Widespread tilling and planting are still on-going. 
AREX has advised farmers who have not yet planted to use 
short-season varieties due to the late date.  We 
believe, however, that many farmers do not have access 
to seeds for these varieties. 
 
10. Shortages of input supply and critical foreign and 
local currency constraints prevented the purchase of 
necessary inputs such as fertilizer, crop and livestock 
chemicals, fuel, and agricultural equipment and 
replacement parts.  Many communal farmers have had to 
plow smaller areas of their fields due to the scarcity 
of fuel for tractors and/or animal draft power.  In many 
instances, farmers have only been able to plow by hand 
one quarter of what they could previously plow with 
government-supplied tractors, portending significant 
reductions in income for the foreseeable future. 
 
11. Of the approximately 4000 large scale commercial 
farms in business three years ago, less than 300 remain 
under the original ownership.  Many of the resettled 
commercial farms are out of production altogether or 
producing at lower levels than they previously did. 
Just this week the GOZ listed a further 130 farms for 
compulsory acquisition. 
 
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SEEDS 
------ 
 
12. Seed prices have risen beyond affordable levels for 
many ordinary farmers.  Seeds are reportedly still 
available in shops, unlike last year at this time, 
despite the fact that fewer seeds were imported this 
year.  It is not known whether this is due to 
unaffordable prices, poor timing or unsuitable 
varieties. 
 
13. ICRISAT is conducting a study on the effectiveness 
of the emergency seed distribution programs.  It will 
report on amounts of seed distributed, areas targeted, 
results of seed germination tests, and the quality and 
performance of seeds.  The post harvest analysis will 
examine how crops performed, with a final report ready 
in June. 
 
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AGRICULTURE HIT BY HIV/AIDS 
------------------------------ 
 
14. The HIV/AIDs prevalence rate on farms is reportedly 
43 percent compared to a national infection level of 
24.6 percent, according to the soon-to-be-released UNDP 
Zimbabwe Human Development Report for 2003.  Since most 
of the HIV-infected people are in the 15- to 23-year age 
bracket, this greatly affects the labor force on farms. 
Orphans and child-headed households are plentiful.  The 
productivity of affected farmers has declined, and plot 
sizes have shrunk due to the reduced capabilities of 
affected farmers.  Many humanitarian assistance 
programs, including USG programs, attempt to target 
HIV/AIDS and other chronically ill populations. 
Additional donor attention is needed to find ways to 
more effectively target those infected and affected by 
HIV/AIDS. 
 
15. Labor-saving technologies and agricultural practices 
can ease the burden for chronically ill farmers.  There 
is great need to utilize more appropriate technologies, 
such as the drip irrigation (already promoted through 
the USAID/Zimbabwe-sponsored LEAD program), and/or to 
introduce conservation farming, such as low or no- 
tillage methods, intercropping and other appropriate 
practices. 
 
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URBAN ASSESSMENT COMPLETED 
---------------------------- 
 
16. Poverty is increasing in urban areas of Zimbabwe. 
An urban assessment has been completed and presented to 
the government, but has not yet been released to the 
public.  Our preliminary information is that the urban 
assessment will conclude that an estimated 2.5 million 
urban dwellers are now food insecure. 
 
17. The practice of planting maize on empty lots, along 
roadsides and in riparian zones within cities is very 
widespread this year.  In prior years, the City Council 
prohibited maize production in certain urban areas and 
took steps to remove illegal crops.  So far this year, 
no action has been taken against urban farmers. 
18. Donors are not funding general food distribution in 
urban areas.  They do fund more targeted programs, such 
as the USAID-funded Market Assistance Program (MAP), 
which provides low-cost sorghum products through 
existing market channels in poor urban neighborhoods in 
Bulawayo to assist with meeting their daily nutritional 
requirements.  However, donors need to do more to 
address the needs of the most vulnerable in urban areas. 
 
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CONCLUSION 
------------- 
 
19. Vulnerability and food insecurity in Zimbabwe 
continue to increase as inflation, HIV/AIDS, and land 
redistribution take their toll.  Late and intermittent 
rains have delayed planting of crops, and early-planted 
crops have withered in the fields in some areas.  Even 
good rains would not solve the food shortages in the 
country as almost 95% of the commercial farms have been 
disrupted by resettlement within the past three years, 
and most rural farmers cannot afford inputs.  Pipeline 
problems affecting WFP distributions in rural areas mean 
that WFP would be hard-pressed to respond to the needs 
of the 2.5 million food insecure in urban areas.  The 
GOZ reportedly has stockpiled 240,000 MT of maize. 
Whether it will intervene to feed the hungry in urban 
areas, viewed as opposition strongholds, remains to be 
seen.  The UN and the donors will need to intensify the 
pressure on the GOZ to respond in a timely and 
appropriate manner. 
SULLIVAN