US embassy cable - 04AMMAN723

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 000723 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2014 
TAGS: PREF, PREL, EAID, KPAL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN SHOW LITTLE INTEREST IN RETURNING 
HOME, WHILE STILL MORE ARRIVE 
 
REF: AMMAN 199 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary and comment:  A range of embassy contacts 
report that Iraqis continue to seek refuge in Jordan, with 
only limited returns from Iraq to Jordan.  The handful of 
voluntary returns in the last six months was limited to new 
caseload refugees or individuals with particular reasons to 
return to Iraq.  The new Iraqi arrivals represent a broad 
range of Iraqi society and include some who came to Jordan in 
search of humanitarian assistance, and others who fear 
retribution.  NGO contacts report that old caseload Iraqis 
have exhausted their financial resources, while their 
employment opportunities have become more limited.  UNHCR 
acknowledges it has little knowledge of its potential volrep 
caseload and has commissioned a profile of the extremely 
vulnerable Iraqi population.  While some Iraqis and NGOs 
report some pressure on the Iraqi population, the presence of 
a large Iraqi community has yet to become an overt political 
issue in Jordan.  Consequently, the GOJ continues to accept 
the presence of the estimated 300,000 Iraqis in Jordan and we 
have no reason to believe it will move toward a premature 
return.  End summary and comment. 
 
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Iraqis Continue to Arrive at Steady Pace 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Jordanian, Iraqi, UN and NGO officials all report 
that significant numbers of Iraqis continue to seek refuge in 
Jordan.  While the GOJ has not provided precise figures of 
new arrivals, anecdotal evidence indicates that Iraqis from 
across the socio-economic spectrum continue to seek temporary 
safety in Jordan.  Ahmad Jiralla Al-Dabbagh, the Consul 
General at the Iraqi Mission in Amman, told PolOff that the 
flow of Iraqis from Iraq to Jordan continues, and that 
Amman-based Iraqis he's talked to tell him that they are 
waiting for the security situation to improve and for good 
job opportunities.  Al-Dabbagh added that although many 
Iraqis in Jordan are eking out a meager existence, many feel 
they would be worse off if they returned to Iraq now.  ICMC 
Country Representative Clive Cavanagh (who administers a 
PRM-funded assistance program for the most vulnerable Iraqis) 
estimates that 30-40 percent of ICMC's current caseload 
arrived in Jordan after the fall of Saddam's regime.  A small 
number of these new arrivals (Cavanagh estimated 10 to 15 
individuals) told ICMC they came to Jordan specifically for 
the medical assistance offered by ICMC.  (Cavanagh refused to 
provide assistance to these individuals, to avoid creating a 
pull factor among needy Iraqis inside Iraq.) 
 
3. (C) On the other end of the spectrum, Amman since the 
summer of 2003 has been awash in late-model luxury sedans 
with Baghdad license plates, and Jordanians complain that 
wealthy new Iraqi arrivals have bid up the price of real 
estate.  Local Iraqi churches report an increase in the 
number of new Christian arrivals from Iraq.  Some of these 
are undoubtedly former supporters of Saddam fearful of 
retribution in Iraq; others may be simply rich enough to come 
to Jordan and ride out the present period of uncertainty and 
instability at home. 
 
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GOJ Limiting Entry? 
------------------- 
 
4. (C) Rumors persist that the Jordanian authorities limit 
entry of Iraqis to those who can prove they have sufficient 
resources either to support themselves in Jordan or transit 
to another country.  UNHCR staff in Ruweished report that 
only Iraqis with USD 20,000 in cash or in banks in Jordan are 
allowed to enter the country.  While we have not been able to 
confirm this report, Embassy Amman's civil-military liaison 
officer at the Iraqi border reports that an average of 200 
persons are denied entry to Jordan every day.  The Jordanian 
Armed Forces (JAF) LNO told a member of the Embassy's 
Humanitarian Assistance Coordination Center (HACC), that 
while there are no definitive monetary requirements for 
Iraqis wishing to enter Jordan, they are asked to show 
evidence of sufficient funds for the stated purpose of their 
visit, i.e., vehicle or apartment purchase.  UNHCR 
Representative Sten Bronee worries that these rumors, if 
true, indicate that the GOJ has a de facto closed border 
policy in spite of written commitments made to UNHCR to allow 
all asylum seekers to enter from Iraq.  (Comment: The GOJ 
does seem to have a closed border policy for those asylum 
seekers it deems risky on either security or overstay 
grounds.) 
 
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While Few Iraqis Choose To Return Home 
-------------------------------------- 
5. (SBU) UNHCR, NGO and Iraqi embassy officials report that 
only a limited number of Iraqis have chosen to return home in 
the last six months.  Iraqi Consul Al-Dabbagh told PolOff 
January 14 that the majority of Iraqi citizens in Jordan -- 
regardless of socio-economic status -- plan to remain in 
Jordan until security conditions in Iraq improve.  According 
to UNHCR Senior Protection Officer Jacqueline Parlevliet, 
only two of the 7,630 Iraqis registered with UNHCR in Jordan 
have informed UNHCR that they wish to return home.  (Those 
two Iraqis had been accepted for the U.S. refugee 
resettlement program and decided to return after hearing from 
PRM refcoords that their cases were not likely to be resolved 
in the near future.)  ICMC Representative Cavanagh reports 
that only one beneficiary - a terminally ill cancer patient 
who wanted to die in Iraq -- had returned home. 
 
6. (SBU) Legal aid NGO Mizan believes many illegal Iraqi 
residents of Jordan are reluctant to leave Jordan, for fear 
of losing their ability to return.  Under current Jordanian 
policy, all Iraqis who have overstayed their residency are 
denied legal re-entry to Jordan.  The majority of returnees 
in the last six months has come from the new caseload, 
primarily Palestinians who fled Baghdad in April and May of 
2003.  UNHCR and IOM estimate that roughly 500 of 2,700 new 
caseload refugees have returned to Iraq.  Iraqi Consul 
Al-Dabbagh told PolOff that he had recently hosted a Danish 
delegation seeking his input on the repatriation to Iraq of 
approximately 12,000 Iraqis based in Denmark.  The Danes his 
advice on whether to start repatriating Iraqi asylum-seekers 
who now had no claim to political asylum.  The Iraqi Consul 
told the Danes that the current unstable situation in Iraq 
did not bode well for their repatriation and suggested they 
wait six months and consult with him at that time. 
 
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Conditions Worsening 
For Vulnerable Iraqis 
--------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) UNHCR's NGO implementing partners report that there 
are some signs of intolerance toward Iraqis in Jordan. 
According to CARE community service workers, Jordanian 
authorities have cracked down on illegal Iraqi workers. 
While downtown Amman used to be full of Iraqi street vendors, 
according to CARE, the only remaining vendors are women who 
hide their wares under their hijab at the approach of 
Jordanian policemen.  These women tell CARE workers that 
their male relatives are unable to find work and spend their 
days hiding from Jordanian officials.  ICMC social workers 
echo these views, adding that longer-term Iraqi residents 
seem to have exhausted their savings and are unable to find 
work.  According to ICMC Representative Cavanagh, many Iraqis 
in Jordan now need assistance with food and shelter, a need 
that did not exist when ICMC began this project in November 
2002.  We have also heard anecdotal evidence  that some 
destitute Iraqi women have turned to prostitution. 
 
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UNHCR Commissions Profile of Iraqis; 
NGOs Urge Creation of Information Centers 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) UNHCR acknowledges that it does not have a clear 
understanding of the Iraqi community in Jordan and has 
commissioned CARE to conduct a profile of 2,000 vulnerable 
Iraqis between February and April 2004.  UNHCR Representative 
Bronee told refcoord January 12 that UNHCR lost its primary 
means of communication with the Iraqi community when it 
halted refugee status determinations in March 2003 and hopes 
to reestablish links through the profile.  Representatives 
from CARE and ICMC were quite critical of UNHCR's ability to 
reach the Iraqi community, telling visiting PRM officers 
January 19 that UNHCR's low recognition rate (10 percent of 
all Iraqi applicants) and rumored close links to Saddam's 
intelligence agents had destroyed all trust of the refugee 
agency.  They urged PRM to fund information centers to spread 
news about developments in Iraq and collect information about 
the Iraqi community in Jordan.  The very limited UNHCR 
profiling exercise, they argued, would not be sufficient to 
capture the full range of the Iraqi community in Jordan. 
 
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GOJ Provides Assurances on Temporary Asylum; 
Move Toward Premature Return Unlikely 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) In a January 19 meeting with the Iraqi Minister of 
Displacement and Migration, Jordanian Minister of Interior 
Habashneh reportedly provided assurances that King Abdullah 
had instructed the government to maintain the current policy 
of temporary asylum for Iraqi nationals.  These assurances 
echo statements we have received from other Jordanian 
officials, including from the Coordinator for UNHCR and 
Refugee Affairs (ref).  Given the long-term nature of the 
Iraqi population in Jordan, as well as the GOJ's careful 
scrutiny of the security and overstay risks posed by Iraqis 
seeking to enter Jordan, we have no reason to believe the GOJ 
will move toward a premature, forced return of the estimated 
300,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan.  Further, that the 300,000 
Iraqis in Jordan are not centralized and are disbursed 
throughout Jordan decreases the pressure on the GOJ to push 
Iraqis back to Iraq. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (SBU) Most Jordanians with whom we speak tend to lump all 
300,000 Iraqis in Jordan into one category and consider them 
all refugees.  At the same time, however, most Jordanians 
understand that security conditions in Iraq will discourage 
refugee returns in the near term.  Since the Iraqi population 
in Jordan is not concentrated in camps or isolated 
neighborhoods, Jordanians do not feel on a daily basis the 
Iraqi community.  These two factors should work to put off 
any Jordanian popular or government pressure to encourage 
large-scale returns. 
 
11. (U) CPA Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ 
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET 
home page. 
HALE