US embassy cable - 00HARARE6459

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 006459 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO ASSISTANT SECRETARY RICE 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2010 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  06459  201536Z 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI SAYS NO EARLY DECISION LIKELY ON 
MASS ACTION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASON 1.5 
(D). 
 
1.  (C) DURING THE COURSE OF A CONVERSATION ON ANOTHER 
MATTER NOVEMBER 20, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD AMBASSADOR MCDONALD 
THAT HIS PARTY HAD MADE NO DECISION REGARDING PLANS FOR 
MASS ACTION IN DECEMBER.  HE SAID THAT THE PARTY'S 
EXECUTIVE WAS SCHEDULED TO MEET ON NOVEMBER 24 AND THAT 
[THE DECISION TO ENGAGE IN MASS ACTION] "WON'T BE 
CONCRETIZED THEN."  THE AMBASSADOR URGED AGAINST THIS 
COURSE OF ACTION BECAUSE IT WOULD RESULT IN A LIKELY 
LOSS OF LIFE, AND CAUSE PRESIDENT MUGABE TO LASH OUT, 
ALTHOUGH HE UNDERSTOOD THAT THE PARTY HAD TO BE TRUE TO 
ITS SUPPORTERS.  TSVANGIRAI REPLIED THAT HE WAS 
"CONSCIOUS OF THE SENSITIVITIES" OF THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY AND PROMISED TO WORK TO CHANNEL HIS 
SUPPORTERS' ANGER PRODUCTIVELY.  HE BLAMED THE PRESS 
BECAUSE IT "WHIPS UP ANGER," ADDING THAT HE WOULD "TAKE 
OUR PEOPLE INTO OUR CONFIDENCE" SO THAT THEY MIGHT 
"ARRIVE AT THE RIGHT CONCLUSION." 
 
2.  (C) TSVANGIRAI THEN COMMENTED ON THE WEEKEND FRACAS 
BETWEEN SUPPORTERS OF THE RULING ZANU-PF AND THE MDC IN 
RURAL BEATRICE, IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CAMPAIGN FOR THE 
MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION.  HE SAID THAT HE HAD BEEN 
SCHEDULED TO ADDRESS A RALLY THERE, BUT UPON RECEIVING 
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INFORMATION OF THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND DECIDED NOT 
TO DO SO.  MDC SUPPORTERS WHO WENT TO BEATRICE TRIED TO 
HOLD A RALLY, BUT FOUND WAR VETERANS AT THEIR CHOSEN 
LOCATION.  THE MDC SUPPORTERS TOLD THE VETERANS TO MOVE, 
AS THEY HAD BOOKED THE SPOT, AT WHICH POINT SHOOTING 
ENSUED.  NO ONE WAS HIT, BUT AT LEAST ONE ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTER WAS RUN OVER IN THE CONFUSION, AS THEY TRIED 
TO BLOCK IN THE MDC SUPPORTERS.  TSVANGIRAI ADMITTED 
THAT SOME MDC MEMBERS WERE BOOKED BY THE POLICE AND WERE 
ANSWERING CHARGES.  HE CONTINUED THAT, "THE WAR VETERANS 
AND MUGABE WON'T ABANDON VIOLENCE," AND REPORTED THAT 
THERE WERE TWO BY-ELECTIONS COMING UP, ONE IN MARONDERA 
WEST AND THE OTHER IN BIKITA, NEAR MASVINGO.  "I WILL 
NOT BE CAMPAIGNING THERE [IN MARONDERA WEST]," THE MDC 
PRESIDENT STATED.  HE EXPLAINED THAT HIS SUPPORTERS TOLD 
HIM THEY WOULD VOTE FOR THE MDC AND IF HE CAME THEY 
WOULD ATTEND THE RALLY, BUT HIS PRESENCE IN THE DISTRICT 
WOULD ONLY INFLAME THE WAR VETERANS, WHO WOULD COME 
AFTER THEM IN THE NIGHT. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT: WE WELCOME THE NEWS ON THE AS YET NOT 
DECIDED-FOR MASS ACTION PLAN.  MASS ACTION IS A BLUNT 
TOOL TO BE USED WITH EXTREME CARE AND WITH GOOD 
PLANNING, NEITHER OF WHICH ELEMENT THE MDC IS EXERCISING 
IN ABUNDANCE OUTSIDE OF PARLIAMENT.  WE DO NOT BELIEVE 
THAT PUBLIC SENTIMENT IS YET AT THE POINT WHERE IT WOULD 
BRING ABOUT THE DESIRED RESULT, FROM EITHER A NUMERIC OR 
PASSION STANDARD.  IN ADDITION, THOUGH HE AND THE PARTY 
HAVE MUCH ON THEIR PLATE, TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC'S TOP 
LEADERSHIP APPEAR, AT TIMES TO US, TO BE MORE DISTRACTED 
AND UNFOCUSED THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE.  NEVERTHELESS, 
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THE AMBASSADOR'S WORDS AND THOSE OF AF ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY RICE AND AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER URGING CAUTION, 
 
SIPDIS 
GIVEN THAT THEY ARE PLAYING WITH FIRE (AND LIVES), SEEM 
TO HAVE HAD SOME EFFECT.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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