US embassy cable - 00SANAA5396

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 005396 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP 
PARIS FOR O'FRIEL 
LONDON FOR SUTPHIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2010 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MEPP, YM 
SUBJECT: SALEH'S RHETORIC OVER THE TOP, BUT POLICY UNCHANGED 
 
REF: STATE 220986 
 
(U)  CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR BARBARA K. BODINE, REASON 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  IN A MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER BA 
JAMMAL NOVEMBER 20, THE AMBASSADOR CONVEYED U.S. CONCERNS 
THAT PRESIDENT SALEH'S RECENT PUBLIC STATEMENTS WERE 
EXACERBATING AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION.  AT SUCH A TENSE 
TIME, THE ROYG SHOULD BE PUBLICLY URGING BOTH SIDES TO RETURN 
TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, NOT FANNING THE FLAMES OF PAN-ARAB 
ANGER.  THE PRESIDENT'S EXCESSIVE COMMENTS WILL ONLY 
STRENGTHEN THE POSITION OF REJECTIONISTS ON BOTH SIDES.  BA 
JAMMAL EXPLAINED THAT SALEH'S RHETORICAL EXTRAVAGANCE WAS 
NECESSARY TO SATISFY PRO-PALESTINIAN YEMENI PUBLIC OPINION 
AND FILL A VACUUM THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE FILLED BY THE 
OPPOSITION.  HE STRESSED THAT THE ROYG'S SUPPORTIVE POLICY 
FOR THE MEPP HAD NOT AND WOULD NOT CHANGE.  AMBASSADOR 
CONTINUED THAT THE GAP BETWEEN YEMENI POLICY AND PRESIDENTIAL 
RHETORIC WAS GROWING TOO WIDE TO BE SUSTAINABLE AS SIMPLY FOR 
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION.  IT WAS NOT IN THE REGION'S, THE 
PALESTINIANS' OR YEMEN'S BEST INTEREST THAT THIS CONTINUE. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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U.S. RESERVATIONS ON RECENT RHETORIC 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  DURING HER NOVEMBER 20 MEETING WITH DEPUTY PRIME 
MINISTER/FOREIGN MINISTER ABDUL QADIR BA JAMMAL (OTHER TOPICS 
SEPTEL), AMBASSADOR, PER REFTEL, RAISED GROWING U.S. CONCERNS 
OVER THE INCREASINGLY SHARP TONE OF PRESIDENT SALEH'S PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS ON REGIONAL ISSUES IN GENERAL AND THE MIDDLE EAST 
PEACE PROCESS IN PARTICULAR.  THE PRESIDENT'S RECENT COMMENTS 
ABOUT THE NECESSITY OF JIHAD, HIS ASSERTION THAT ARMED 
RESISTANCE WAS THE ONLY VIABLE PALESTINIAN OPTION AND HIS 
PUBLIC EXPRESSION OF REGRET -- REPEATED ON AT LEAST TWO 
OCCASIONS -- THAT YEMEN DID NOT BORDER ISRAEL AND THEREFORE 
COULD NOT PROVIDE ARMS FOR THE INTIFADA, WERE 
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO STOP THE 
VIOLENCE IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.  THEY ALSO APPEARED TO 
CONTRADICT OFFICIAL ROYG POLICY OF SUPPORT FOR THE MEPP. 
 
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BA JAMMAL:  IT'S RHETORIC, NOT SUBSTANCE 
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3.  (C)  BA JAMMAL DOWNPLAYED THE SERIOUSNESS OF SALEH'S 
REMARKS, ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPRESSING REGRET AT YEMEN'S NOT 
BEING A BORDERLINE STATE, ADDING THAT HE HAD QUICKLY 
CLARIFIED THE LATTER IN SUBSEQUENT PRESS INTERVIEWS, DENYING 
THAT YEMEN WAS CALLING FOR WAR AND RESTATING THAT THE 
PEACEFUL RECOGNITION OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS REMAINED A 
FUNDAMENTAL PRECEPT OF YEMENI FOREIGN POLICY.  HE EXPLAINED 
THE PRESIDENT'S RHETORICAL EXTRAVAGANCE AS AN UNAVOIDABLE 
POLITICAL REALITY:  AS AN ARAB LEADER, SALEH IS OBLIGED TO 
ENTHUSIASTICALLY EMBRACE PAN-ARAB SOLIDARITY DURING PERIODS 
OF PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFRONTATION.  ALSO, THE YEMENI 
PUBLIC IS OUTRAGED OVER WHAT THEY PERCEIVE AS ISRAEL'S USE OF 
EXCESSIVE FORCE AGAINST PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS; TO APPEAR SOFT 
ON ISRAEL WOULD OPEN THE GOVERNMENT TO ATTACKS FROM THE 
DOMESTIC OPPOSITION. 
 
--------------------------------- 
THE AMBASSADOR:  RHETORIC MATTERS 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  THE AMBASSADOR CHARACTERIZED SALEH'S RECENT PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS AS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE AND INTOLERANT THAN THEY 
HAD EVER BEEN AND WELL BEYOND THOSE EMANATING FROM MOST OTHER 
ARAB CAPITALS.  IN FACT, BA JAMMAL HAD HIMSELF EARLIER 
DISPARAGED IRAQ'S CALLING FOR A JIHAD AND A WAR OF AGGRESSION 
AGAINST ISRAEL.  REGRETTABLY, PRESIDENT SALEH'S PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS WERE PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO BAGHDAD'S. THIS HAD BEEN 
NOTICED IN WASHINGTON, WHERE EVENYEMEN'S FRIENDS WERE 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WORRIE ABOUT THE EXTREME NATURE OF 
SOME OF SALEH'S COMENTS.  SUCH STRIDENT RHETORIC ONLY SERVED 
TO ENCURAGE VIOLENT REJECTIONISTS ON THE PALESTINIAN SID 
AND CONFIRM HARD-LINE ISRAELI CLAIMS THAT ALL AABS WANT WAR 
WITH ISRAEL.  GIVEN THE VOLATILITY O THE CURRENT SITUATION, 
OFFICIAL ROYG STATEMENTSSHOULD BE URGING BOTH SIDES TO 
RETURN TO PEACEFU NEGOTIATION, NOT EXHORTING MUSLIMS TO 
JIHAD OR ALESTINIANS TO VIOLENT RESISTANCE. 
 
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ROYG POLICY UNCHANGED:  SUPPORT FOR THE MEPP 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C)  BA JAMMAL DEMURRED, CLAIMING THAT OTHER ARAB EADERS 
HAD ISSUED SIMILARLY STRONG PUBLIC STATEMNTS.  SALEH 
SHOULDN'T BE SINGLED OUT.  POINTING OT THAT HE HAD 
SUCCESSFULLY PREVENTED ANTI-MEPP LNGUAGE FROM BEING INCLUDED 
IN THE OIC SUMMIT'S FNAL COMMUNIQUE, BA JAMMAL INSISTED THAT 
THE ROYGS SUPPORTIVE POLICY FOR THE PEACE PROCESS HAD NOT 
AND WOULD NOT CHANGE.  PEACEFUL NEGOTIATION WAS TH ONLY WAY 
TO ACHIEVE A JUST, LASTING PEACE BETWEN ISRAEL AND THE 
PALESTINIANS.  AT THE SAME TIME THE U.S. MUST UNDERSTAND 
THAT THE YEMENI LEADERHIP IS UNDER TREMENDOUS PUBLIC OPINION 
PRESSURE;THE YEMENI STREET HAS TO BE APPEASED.  SALEH'S 
REENT RHETORIC REFLECTS A "COMPETITION" BETWEEN THE ROYG AND 
THE DOMESTIC OPPOSITION FOR THE PUBLIC'S FAVOR, NOT A POLICY 
SHIFT. 
 
6.  (C)  THE AMBASSADOR WARNED BA JAMMAL THAT A CONTINUATION 
OF SALEH'S RHETORIC RISKED BEING INTERPRETED IN WASHINGTON AS 
AN INDICATION THAT ROYG POLICY HAS CHANGED OR IS IN THE 
PROCESS OF CHANGING.  BA JAMMAL TOOK THE POINT, BUT 
DISTINGUISHED BETWEEN ROYG STRATEGY (OVERALL SUPPORT FOR THE 
MEPP AND PEACEFUL NEGOTIATION) AND TACTICS (BUYING TIME BY 
APPEASING PUBLIC ANGER).  THE AMBASSADOR CONCLUDED BY 
SUGGESTING THAT IT WOULD BE IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST IF THE 
ROYG BEGAN TO FOCUS ON STRATEGY RATHER THAN TACTICS. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C)  SALEH'S DESIRE TO BURNISH HIS PAN-ARAB CREDENTIALS 
AND AVOID OPENING HIMSELF TO ATTACKS FROM THE OPPOSITION IS 
PREDICTABLE, IF LAMENTATBLE.  OPPOSITION (AND ESPECIALLY 
ISLAAH) CRITICISM OF THE ROYG'S DECISION EARLIER THIS YEAR TO 
REVISE ITS TRAVEL POLICY TO ALLOW YEMENI-ORIGIN ISRAELIS TO 
RETURN HOME ON LAISSEZ-PASSER WAS PARTICULARLY NASTY.  AS A 
RESULT, THE NEW POLICY HAD TO BE SUSPENDED.  SALEH MUST ALSO 
CAREFULLY MANAGE THE PUBLIC OPINION ASPECTS OF THE U.S. 
INVESTIGATIVE PRESENCE IN YEMEN FOLLOWING THE OCTOBER 12 
TERRORIST ATTACK AGAINST THE USS COLE IN ADEN HARBOR.  TAKING 
HARD-LINE STANCES ON REGIONAL ISSUES GIVES SALEH THE 
POLITICAL COVER HE NEEDS FOR THE CLOSE AND ONGOING 
YEMENI-U.S. JOINT INVESTIGATION.  THAT SAID, HIS RECENT 
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON IRAQ AND THE MEPP ARE WELL BEYOND THE 
PALE EVEN IF THEY REFLECT SALEH'S MERCURIAL AND COMBATIVE 
NATURE RATHER THAN A SHIFT IN ROYG POLICY.  AMBASSADOR HAS 
REQUESTED AN APPOINTMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT TO DISCUSS U.S. 
CONCERNS. 
 
 
BODINE