US embassy cable - 04DJIBOUTI110

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000110 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS FOR REFCOORD J. EKLUND 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2014 
TAGS: PTER, PREF, PHUM, ASEC, ET, DJ 
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTIAN GOVERNMENT REACTS TO TRAIN EXPLOSION 
 
REF: A. DJIBOUTI 00089 
     B. 03 DJIBOUTI 2241 
     C. 03 DJIBOUTI 01453 
     D. 03 DJIBOUTI 01674 
     E. 03 DJIBOUTI 01801 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER C. BEAMER FOR REASONS 1.5 (D) AND (E) 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1. (U) As outlined in Ref. A on the morning of January 18, 
2004 an explosive device detonated aboard a passenger car of 
the Ethiopian/Djibouti railway.  This explosion follows close 
on the heels of explosions just within the Ethiopian frontier 
of fuel trucks, and is one of several explosions on the 
railway in recent months.  While speculation abounds 
regarding the motives behind the explosion, the Djiboutian 
Government has reacted strongly to the event but appears to 
lack the capacity to coordinate an effective response.  The 
Government has reached out to the international community for 
assistance and taken some measures it hopes will prevent 
future explosions.  A related result of the explosion is the 
pressure applied to Interior Minister Wais to close the 
refugee transit camp of Aour-Aoussa (Ref. C, D, E) which is 
located approximately 15 kilometers from Dassbiyo (site of 
the train explosion) and houses several thousand ethnic Oromo 
Ethiopians. 
 
MOTIVES 
------- 
 
2. (C) Post cannot offer more than speculation as to the 
cause of these recent attacks on commercial lines between 
Djibouti and Ethiopia.  Djiboutian officials and businessmen 
postulate that the strong trucking lobby in Ethiopia tied to 
President Meles is trying to put the kiss of death on the 
commercial railway.  This seems unlikely given the poor state 
of the railway and its relatively minor percentage of 
commercial traffic.  It is significant, however, that two 
commercial fuel trucks were attacked, one in Addis and one 
just inside the Ethiopian frontier near the Djiboutian border 
town of Galafi in recent weeks.  If there is a relation 
between the trucking industry and the train explosions, is it 
a tit for tat exchange?  A more likely theory has scattered 
elements of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) expressing their 
discontent with the Ethiopian establishment and the 
Djiboutian authorities who recently collaborated with them in 
the expulsion of some thousands of Ethiopians living 
illegally in Djibouti (Ref. C, D, E).  But if this were so, 
why does the OLF not take credit?  We do not think so as 
Oromos make up some 40% of the population, have an autonomous 
district which they administer themselves, are represented at 
the National level by an Oromo President, and have a strong 
international lobby including London based human rights 
groups.  These bombings would not seem to benefit OLF 
interests in that light. 
 
GODJ RESPONSE 
------------- 
 
3. (C) President Guelleh has intervened personally and has 
all GODJ pistons firing to address his concerns.  Despite a 
State Department PM funded demining program in the military 
and a DS ATA trained explosive incident countermeasure (EIC) 
squad in the National Police, the capacity of Djiboutian 
security forces to respond to such incidents remains limited. 
 Reports on the very nature of the explosive device have 
ranged from a C-4 charge to an anti-personnel mine.  The 
demining unit of the Djiboutian military has been dispatched 
to border checkpoints with extended mirrors to conduct 
inspections of all transport crossing the frontier.  Six 
people have been arrested and arraigned in conjuction with 
the investigation but Post does not have details of the case. 
 The Djiboutian Minister of International Cooperation Ali 
Youssouf called Ethiopian DCM Yeshi into his office following 
the explosion and told her that the train would be halted 
until the conclusion of the investigation and the Aour-Aoussa 
refugee camp would be closed immediately.  Yeshi told post 
that she feels a third party is behind the explosions, 
unattached to either the Djiboutian or the Ethiopian 
governments. 
 
REFUGEES 
-------- 
 
4. (U) Local UNHCR Representative Collins Asare reported that 
the GODJ has since retreated from its rash decision to 
immediately close the Aour-Aoussa transit center.  The 
Government eligibility commission established for the asylum 
seekers at Aour-Aoussa and currently in place in Ali-Sabieh 
has revamped its efforts to hear the cases before it and has 
announced that all refugees in Aour-Aoussa will have a status 
determination before March 31.  Those who are found to be 
elligible will be incorporated into one of the two existing 
refugee camps in Djibouti and those found inelligible will be 
repatriated to their country of origin.  At that time the 
camp will be closed. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (C) While the recent explosion should not be seen as an 
immediate threat to U.S. interests in Djibouti, the event 
underlines a continuing need for increased Djiboutian 
capabilities for them to fully participate in the GWOT. 
Djibouti's leadership is comitted and will talk its way 
through any legislation or agreement or support to prove that 
is on board for the GWOT, but its capacity to offer real 
assistance on the ground is limited.  Additionally, questions 
that are fundamental to the GWOT such as nationality, 
immigration, and frontiers are still gray in the wild west of 
East Africa. 
 
SMITH