US embassy cable - 00HARARE6317

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - R. MCCALL, DAA/AER - VNEWTON, 
AFR/SA - CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06317  01 OF 03  091545Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2010 
TAGS: PREL, EAGR, EAID, ZI, Land Reform 
SUBJECT: DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MINISTER 
DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGES TO ZIMBABWE ON FAST TRACK LAND 
EXERCISE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: DANISH MINISTER FOR DEVELOPMENT 
COOPERATION JAN TROJBORG TOLD WESTERN HEADS OF MISSION 
NOVEMBER 8 THAT HE HAD COME TO ZIMBABWE TO SEARCH FOR A 
SOLUTION TO THE COUNTRY'S CURRENT IMPASSE.  HE VOICED 
STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT 
PROGRAM'S (UNDP) EFFORTS TO REKINDLE DIALOGUE AMONG THE 
DONORS, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE AND OTHER LOCAL 
STAKEHOLDERS AND APPEALED FOR SIMILAR SUPPORT FROM THE 
ASSEMBLED DIPLOMATS WHEN UNDP ADMINISTRATOR MARK 
MALLOCH-BROWN VISITED LATER THIS MONTH.  THE DANISH 
MINISTER SAID THE MESSAGE HE BROUGHT FOR PRESIDENT 
MUGABE (A "MAN WITHOUT A PLAN") WAS TO STOP THE ILLEGAL 
FARM INVASIONS IMMEDIATELY, MAKE SENSIBLE DESIGNATIONS 
OF THOSE FARMS ALREADY ACQUIRED, RESPECT COURT ORDERS 
AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW IN THE RURAL AREAS, AND 
NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED NATIONS.  THE PLAINSPOKEN DANE 
ALSO TOLD FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE TO MOVE ON FROM HIS 
OBSESSION WITH THE BRITISH.  FURTHER, HE TOLD THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S 
FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH A POTENTIAL SUPREME COURT RULING 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06317  01 OF 03  091545Z 
AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT ON THE FAST TRACK LAND 
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE WOULD BE "UNACCEPTABLE" TO THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  HE FOUND THE MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PARLIAMENTARIANS IMPRESSIVE AND 
SEIZED WITH PLANNING STRATEGY, BUT COUNSELED THEM THAT, 
AS THE OPPOSITION, THEY MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 
WELFARE OF THE COUNTRY AND AVOID EXPOSING THEIR 
FOLLOWERS TO VIOLENCE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) WRAPPING UP A BRIEF FOUR-DAY VISIT TO HARARE 
TRIGGERED BY MEETINGS WITH UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT 
PROGRAM (UNDP) ADMINISTRATOR MARK MALLOCH-BROWN AND 
SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI, DANISH MINISTER FOR 
DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION JAN TROJBORG TOLD WESTERN HEADS 
OF MISSION NOVEMBER 8 IN HARARE THAT HE HAD COME TO 
DISCUSS FINDING A SOLUTION TO ZIMBABWE'S CURRENT 
IMPASSE.  AFTER TALKS HE CONCLUDED THAT THE KEY WOULD BE 
TO RESOLVE TWO PROBLEMS: THE LAND ISSUE AND WITHDRAWAL 
OF TROOPS FROM THE CONGO.  NAMING THE PROBLEMS WAS EASY, 
BUT THE DEVIL WAS IN THE DETAIL, HE SAID.  HIS 
GOVERNMENT'S MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN INTERLOCUTORS WAS: 
STOP THE ILLEGAL FARM INVASIONS IMMEDIATELY, MAKE 
SENSIBLE DESIGNATIONS OF THOSE FARMS ALREADY ACQUIRED, 
RESPECT COURT ORDERS AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW IN THE 
RURAL AREAS, AND NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED NATIONS.  "IT 
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE AT FIVE MINUTES TO TWELVE," THE 
MINISTER OBSERVED, "THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE FOR THE 
COUNTRY TO AVOID COLLAPSE." 
 
3.  (C) SPEAKING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE DANISH 
MINISTER URGED HIM TO FIND A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06317  01 OF 03  091545Z 
HERE AND IN THE CONGO.  HE UNDERSTOOD THAT IT WAS 
"COMPLICATED" TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM THE CONGO AND 
URGED THE HEADS OF MISSION PRESENT TO HELP ZIMBABWE 
WITHIN THE UN FRAMEWORK.  TROJBORG SAID MUGABE REVIEWED 
IN DETAIL THE HISTORY OF LANCASTER HOUSE, AND THE DANE 
THEN ENDURED A TIRADE AGAINST THE BRITISH AND THE 
CONSPIRACY THEY WERE LEADING AGAINST HIM.  NEVERTHELESS, 
THE VISITING MINISTER NOTED THAT THE RHETORIC WAS MILDER 
THAN WHAT MUGABE HAD USED ON PREVIOUS OCCASIONS. 
 
4.  (C) TROJBORG CONTINUED THAT HE HAD TOLD PRESIDENT 
MUGABE THAT THE DONORS HAD REACTED TO HIS POLICIES BY 
CUTTING THEIR BILATERAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS.  HE 
CAUTIONED THE ZIMBABWEAN CHIEF EXECUTIVE THAT, WHILE HE 
UNDERSTOOD POLITICALLY THE NEED TO LAUNCH A FAST TRACK 
APPROACH, ACQUIRING ALL 5 MILLION HECTARES AT ONCE WAS A 
SURE RECIPE FOR DISASTER.  HE SAID THAT THE FAST TRACK 
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE NEEDED A PRECISE DEFINITION AND 
NEEDED TO BE DONE SO AS NOT TO UNDERMINE THE COUNTRY'S 
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION.  AT THE SAME TIME THE PROGRAM 
SHOULD SETTLE REAL FARMERS, AND NOT WAR VETERANS OR 
UNSKILLED PEASANTRY, ON THE FARMS.  HE TOLD THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT THAT IT WAS TIME TO SET PERCEPTIONS 
FROM THE PAST ASIDE AND "LOOK FORWARD," WORDS HE JUDGED 
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT.  HE NOTED 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6932 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06317  02 OF 03  091546Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 
      SMEC-00  COME-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      VC-00    HHS-01   H-01     SSA-01   TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OES-01   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------9D19BA  091546Z /38 
R 091545Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7602 
INFO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - R. MCCALL, DAA/AER - VNEWTON, 
AFR/SA - CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06317  02 OF 03  091546Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2010 
TAGS: PREL, EAGR, EAID, UNDP, ZI 
SUBJECT: DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MINISTER 
DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGES TO ZIMBABWE ON FAST TRACK LAND 
EXERCISE 
 
THAT MUGABE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE UNDP ADMINISTRATOR, 
WHEN THE LATTER CAME TO HARARE, AND WORK WITH HIM. 
 
5. (C) THE YOUNGER ZIMBABWEAN MINISTERS, ON THE OTHER 
HAND, UNDERSTOOD THE NEED FOR REFORM AND THAT THE LAND 
ISSUE IS NOT ECONOMIC BUT POLITICAL.  THE DANISH 
POLITICIAN SAW CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE 
POSITIONS OF THE YOUNGER AND THE OLDER MINISTERS. 
FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, SAID THAT THERE WERE 100 
BETTER WAYS TO CONDUCT LAND REFORM, BUT THE COUNTRY 
FOUND ITSELF IN A DIFFICULT SITUATION.  WHEN TROJBORG 
SUGGESTED IT WAS THE FAULT OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT, 
THE FOREIGN MINISTER FOBBED BLAME OFF ON THE BRITISH. 
 
6.  (C) THE DANISH MINISTER OBSERVED THERE WAS A "CLEAR 
LACK OF QUALITY" TO THE CURRENT LAND REFORM AND 
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE.  HE HOPED HOWEVER THAT THERE WAS 
ROOM FOR MANEUVER IN IT, AND SAID HE WOULD ENCOURAGE HIS 
EUROPEAN UNION COLLEAGUES TO VISIT ZIMBABWE AND SPEAK 
CLEARLY AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE UNDP MISSION TO THE 
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. 
 
7.  (C) "I HAD AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION WITH THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06317  02 OF 03  091546Z 
OPPOSITION," HE STATED.  HE FOUND MDC MEMBERS OF 
PARLIAMENT WELSHMAN NCUBE AND PAUL NYATHI VERY 
IMPRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY IN THEIR EFFORTS TO FIND A 
STRATEGY TO INFLUENCE EVENTS, CERTAINLY MORE SO THAN THE 
PRESIDENT.  HE FOUND MUGABE TO BE "A MAN WITHOUT A 
PLAN," BUT IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT 
COULD SET ONE UP QUICKLY IF THE PRESIDENT WOULD GIVE HIS 
MINISTERS THE GREEN LIGHT TO DO SO.  THE MDC WAS 
UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT COULD HOLD MOMENTUM UNTIL ELECTION 
OR WOULD TAKE TO THE STREETS, AND ONCE IT DID SO, IT WAS 
UNCERTAIN IT COULD CONTROL THE SITUATION.  "THE 
GOVERNMENT IS DETERMINED NOT TO BE RUN OVER BY THE 
PARLIAMENT OF THE STREET," TROJBORG OBSERVED.  THE MDC, 
HE CONTINUED, WOULD ADHERE TO CONSTITUTIONAL MEANS, AND 
THOUGHT THAT IT WOULD BE EASY TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, AS IT WAS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING WOULD CHANGE 
FOR THE POSITIVE VIS-A-VIS THE ECONOMY BEFORE THEN. 
NEVERTHELESS, HAVING VOTED THE MDC INTO PARLIAMENT, THE 
PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING RESULTS.  THE DANISH MINISTER TOLD 
THE MDC MEMBERS THAT EVEN AS MEMBERS OF THE OPPOSITION, 
THE MDC HAD A RESPONSIBILITY TO ACT IN THE INTEREST OF 
THE COUNTRY, A STATEMENT WITH WHICH THE PARLIAMENTARIANS 
AGREED. 
 
8. (C) FINALLY, TROJBORG SAID IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR 
HIM TO SUSTAIN CURRENT AID LEVELS TO ZIMBABWE IN THE 
FACE OF PUBLIC OPINION OPPOSING IT.  UNLESS THE 
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO CHANGE ITS 
WAYS WITHIN SIX MONTHS, TROJBORG ANNOUNCED HE WOULD BE 
FORCED TO REDUCE IT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06317  02 OF 03  091546Z 
9.  (C) A BRIEF QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION FOLLOWED THE 
MINISTER'S REMARKS. 
 
-- THE BELGIAN AMBASSADOR SAID SOME DONORS HAD 
RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF THE UN/UNDP 
MISSION, NOTING THAT IT REQUIRED THEM TO PUT MONEY UP- 
FRONT.  IS THIS GOOD?  "SHOULDN'T THERE BE DISCUSSION 
FIRST?" SHE ASKED.  TROJBORG THOUGHT THE TWO THINGS WENT 
HAND IN HAND, AS THE PLAN REQUIRED TRUST.  THE DANISH 
GOVERNMENT THOUGHT THAT MANAGEMENT OF THE FUND SHOULD 
REST IN INTERNATIONAL HANDS.  COMMENT: USE OF A TRUST 
FUND WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE APPROPRIATE, BUT IT IS VERY 
UNLIKELY THAT DONORS WILL CONTRIBUTE AT THIS POINT TO A 
TRUST FUND THAT FINANCES THE GOZ FAST TRACK PROGRAM. 
END COMMENT. 
 
-- THE GREEK AMBASSADOR ASKED WHAT THE FINANCE AND 
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER (SIMBA MAKONI) HAD SAID. 
TROJBORG SAID HE HAD NOT MET WITH HIM YET, BUT NOTED 
THAT IN PRAGUE THE ZIMBABWEAN MINISTER HAD SAID, "WE'LL 
ALL BE DEAD IN THE SPRING, IF THERE IS NO SOLUTION [TO 
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC ILLS]." 
 
-- THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR ASKED WHETHER PRESIDENT MUGABE 
HAD ANY REACTION TO THE MINISTER'S URGING TO RESPECT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6937 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06317  03 OF 03  091546Z 
ACTION IO-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00 
      SMEC-00  COME-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      VC-00    HHS-01   H-01     SSA-01   TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OES-01   OIC-02 
      OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------9D19D4  091547Z /38 
R 091545Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7603 
INFO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - R. MCCALL, DAA/AER - VNEWTON, 
AFR/SA - CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06317  03 OF 03  091546Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2010 
TAGS: PREL, EAGR, EAID, UNDP, ZI 
SUBJECT: DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MINISTER 
DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGES TO ZIMBABWE ON FAST TRACK LAND 
EXERCISE 
 
COURT ORDERS.  BECAUSE THE FAST-TRACK PROGRAM WAS BEFORE 
THE SUPREME COURT THE GOVERNMENT HAD ATTACKED THE CHIEF 
JUSTICE.  TROJBORG SAID THE PRESIDENT DID NOT ADDRESS 
THE ISSUE, BUT NOTED THAT HE RESPECTED THE RULE OF LAW. 
THE FOREIGN MINISTER, ON THE OTHER HAND, ADMITTED THAT 
IF THE COURT CASE GOES AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, THE 
LATTER WOULD NOT ACCEDE TO THE DECISION.  THE DANISH 
MINISTER SAID THAT WAS "UNACCEPTABLE." 
 
-- THE DUTCH CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ASKED WHETHER PRESIDENT 
MBEKI HAD BEEN CLEARER ON HIS STAND VIS-A-VIS THE LAND 
QUESTION.  TROJBORG RESPONDED THAT THE SOUTH AFRICAN 
PRESIDENT NOTED THAT THE PROBLEM MUST BE APPROACHED FROM 
ANOTHER ANGLE, AS THE PICTURE IN THE WEST WAS NOT CLEAR, 
A FACT FOR WHICH THE MEDIA BORE THE BLAME.  WHAT WAS 
GOING ON IN ZIMBABWE WAS DEVASTATING FOR ITS ECONOMY AND 
SOUTH AFRICA WOULD BEAR THE BRUNT OF ITS COLLAPSE. 
MUGABE IS VERY EMOTIONAL AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCUSS 
THE PROBLEM WITH HIM, AND AS A RESULT HE GOES BACK TO 
WHAT HE KNOWS BEST, FIGHTING ENEMIES, REAL OR IMAGINED. 
MBEKI SEES THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE AS OUT OF CONTROL. 
THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT NOTED THAT HISTORICAL 
TENSION BETWEEN HIS COUNTRY AND ZIMBABWE PRECLUDED HIS 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06317  03 OF 03  091546Z 
SPEAKING FRANKLY WITH MUGABE. 
 
-- THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY REPRESENTATIVE ASKED IF A 
MISSION FROM THE EU TROIKA MIGHT NOT BE APPROPRIATE TO 
MAKE THE SAME POINTS.  THE DANISH MINISTER RESPONDED 
THAT THE "THE ONLY CARD WE HAVE IS THE UNDP ONE."  HE 
DISCOURAGED SUCH AN INITIATIVE, AND NOTED THAT FOR 
HIMSELF THE MEDIA IN DENMARK WAS CRITICIZING HIM FOR 
COMING TO ZIMBABWE AND CONTINUING AN AID PROGRAM TO A 
DICTATOR.  HE AGAIN MADE A PITCH FOR ALL ASSEMBLED HEADS 
OF MISSION TO SUPPORT THE MALLOCH-BROWN VISIT AND THE 
MESSAGE HE MIGHT BRING, WHICH WOULD BE "NOT TOO SOFT, 
BUT CONSTRUCTIVE." 
 
-- THE BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER ASKED WHETHER 
MUGABE WAS KEEN TO RE-ENGAGE THE DONOR COMMUNITY AND WAS 
HE ACTUALLY LOOKING FOR A WAY OUT OF THE CURRENT 
IMPASSE.  THE DANISH MINISTER SAID THAT HE FOUND MUGABE 
MORE ENGAGED THAN HE SURMISED WOULD BE THE CASE, AND HAD 
SPENT A LOT OF TIME REFLECTING ON THE LAND ISSUE.  HE 
CONTINUES TO STRONGLY DISTRUST OF THE WEST, AND TO 
NURTURE HIS OBSESSION WITH THE BRITISH.  HE RAILED 
AGAINST THE LATTER FOR "RECEIVING" IAN SMITH, CONVEYING 
THE SENSE THAT HE, MUGABE, IS NOT RECEIVED THAT WAY.  HE 
CONTINUED THAT THE UNITED KINGDOM COULD PLAY A VERY 
IMPORTANT ROLE IN RETURNING THE COUNTRY TO NORMALITY. 
AT THE SAME TIME, MUGABE CALLED ON THE HEADS OF MISSION 
TO ADVISE THE MDC NOT TO TAKE TO THE STREET AND AVOID 
BRINGING VIOLENCE DOWN UPON ITSELF. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT: PERHAPS BECAUSE WE AGREE WITH MOST 
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EVERYTHING TROJBORG SAID, WE FOUND HIS MESSAGE TO BE 
JUST RIGHT AND, IN GENERAL, HIS MISSION TO BE USEFUL. 
IN ITS WAKE, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE HAS NO EXCUSE TO 
SAY THAT IT DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE CONCERNS OF THE 
DONOR COMMUNITY.  IT ALSO RECEIVED GOOD ADVICE TO QUIT 
PICKING AT HISTORICAL SCABS AND START LOOKING FORWARD. 
WHETHER OR NOT THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE CHOOSES TO ACT 
ON THESE OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-ENGAGE THE DONORS STILL 
REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT DIPLOMATS OF THE WORLD HAVE 
MOBILIZED IN A BID TO STOP THE CLOCK FROM TOLLING 
MIDNIGHT HERE.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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