US embassy cable - 00HARARE6297

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/10 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06297  01 OF 03  081558Z 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION INCREASINGLY DIVIDED OVER 
MASS ACTION; AMBASSADOR URGES RESTRAINT 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 5983 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: AMBASSADOR MET OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE 
NOVEMBER 7 TO PRESS HOME THE NEED FOR ZIMBABWE'S 
POLITICAL PARTIES TO UNDERTAKE DIALOGUE AND DEFLATE 
TENSIONS.  NCUBE ASSERTED THAT THERE ARE MANY PARTY 
STALWARTS WILLING TO TALK WITH THE MDC IF MUGABE WOULD 
LET THEM.  HOWEVER, "MODERATES" IN THE MDC ARE LOSING 
MOMENTUM TO THE PARTY'S "RADICALS," WHO ARE INCREASING 
THE PRESSURE FOR MASS ACTION THAT WOULD FORCE MUGABE 
FROM POWER, ACCORDING TO NCUBE.  THE MDC'S NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DELAY MASS ACTION FOR AS 
LONG AS POSSIBLE, BUT THE RADICALS ARE MAKING IT 
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO DO SO.  NCUBE ESPOUSED THAT 
THE KEY QUESTION IS THE WILLINGNESS OF THE PARTY'S 
MAJORITY OF "FENCE-SITTERS" TO ENGAGE IN THE TYPE OF 
MASS ACTION THAT COULD RESULT IN VIOLENCE.  GIVEN THE 
RAPID DECLINE OF THE ECONOMY, THE GROWING CLAMOR FOR 
MUGABE'S OUSTER, AND THE LOW PROBABILITY ZANU-PF WILL 
MAKE ANY CONCESSION ON ITS CURRENT COURSE, THE MDC 
LEADERSHIP MAY ULTIMATELY GIVE IN TO THE RADICALS' 
PRESSURE.  THE AMBASSADOR MADE A STRONG APPEAL FOR 
RESTRAINT.  END SUMMARY. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06297  01 OF 03  081558Z 
 
2.  (C) AMBASSADOR, DCM, AND POLOFF MET OPPOSITION MDC 
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE NOVEMBER 7 TO PRESS 
 
SIPDIS 
HOME THE NEED FOR ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL PARTIES TO ENGAGE 
IN DIALOGUE AND DEFLATE TENSIONS.  THE AMBASSADOR 
CONVEYED TO NCUBE THAT THE U.S. IS CONCERNED THAT THE 
MDC AND ZANU-PF REFUSE TO TALK TO EACH OTHER, AND THAT 
THE GENERAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IS NOT 
SUSTAINABLE.  WE WOULD LIKE TO HELP, IF POSSIBLE, AND 
KNOWING WHO IN ZANU-PF TO APPROACH WOULD FACILITATE A 
HOPEFULLY CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE, THE AMBASSADOR STATED. 
 
3.  (C) NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THE NEED FOR DIALOGUE AND 
STATED THERE ARE PEOPLE MUGABE LISTENS TO THAT ARE 
WILLING TO TALK TO THE OPPOSITION.  NCUBE CITED SPEAKER 
OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, FORMER ZIMBABWE 
DEFENSE FORCES CHIEF AND POLITBURO MEMBER SOLOMON 
MUJURU, ZANU-PF SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION DIDYMUS 
MUTASA, AND FORMER MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL 
SECURITY SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI AS THE CORE PEOPLE MUGABE 
STILL CONSULTS.  THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE FACT THAT THEY 
HAVE NOT TAKEN THE NECESSARY STEPS TO INITIATE A 
DIALOGUE WITH THE MDC.  (COMMENT: MDC SUPPORTER CLIVE 
PUZEY TOLD US THAT HIS PARTY HAD MADE SOME OVERTURES TO 
MUJURU TO SELL THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP ON AN AMNESTY 
DEAL.  THE EFFORT WAS STILLBORN.  END COMMENT.) 
MNANGAGWA, ZANU-PF CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO, AND VICE- 
PRESIDENT JOSEPH MSIKA HAVE ALL MADE STATEMENTS ON 
RESOLVING THE LAND PROBLEM IN A RATIONAL WAY.  EVERYBODY 
IN THE PARTY, EXCEPT FOR THE VICE-PRESIDENTS, AGREE 
PRIVATELY THAT MUGABE MUST GO, AND NCUBE BELIEVES THAT 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06297  01 OF 03  081558Z 
MNANGAGWA CAN BE PERSUADED TO GET THE PARTY HIERARCHY TO 
BACK MUGABE'S EARLY DEPARTURE. 
 
4.  (C) INSIDE THE MDC, NCUBE STATED, THE PRESSURE TO 
RESORT TO MASS ACTION IS "PHENOMENAL."  HE MENTIONED THE 
SIX MDC MPS WHO TOLD A CROWD OF CHITUNGWIZA RESIDENTS 
NOVEMBER 5 TO PREPARE FOR MASS ACTION IN DECEMBER TO 
FORCE MUGABE OUT.  NCUBE EMPHASIZED THAT THE MPS WERE 
ACTING ON THEIR OWN AND DID NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY OF 
THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE TO MAKE THOSE STATEMENTS. 
THE EXECUTIVE IS STILL UNDECIDED ON THE TIMING AND FORM 
OF MASS ACTION--IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUT OFF A DECISION 
FOR TWO MONTHS NOW.  NCUBE SAID THE PLAN OF ACTION TO BE 
PRESENTED TO THE EXECUTIVE IN TWO WEEKS ENTAILS A THREE- 
DAY GENERAL STRIKE FOLLOWED BY A MASS MARCH ON HARARE ON 
THE FOURTH DAY.  WHEN ASKED WHAT THE GOVERNMENT COULD DO 
TO AVOID A POTENTIALLY VIOLENT MASS ACTION, NCUBE 
RESPONDED THAT THE MDC WOULD ACCEPT A CLEAR INDICATION 
FROM MUGABE OF HIS INTENTION NOT TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION 
AND AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF AN EARLY ELECTION IN JANUARY 2002 
(THE ELECTION IS DUE BY APRIL 2002).  THIS WOULD DIFFUSE 
A LOT OF TENSION, NCUBE STATED, AND THE MDC COULD WAIT 
15 MONTHS FOR AN ELECTION IF IT KNEW MUGABE WOULD NOT 
RUN, EVEN THOUGH THE MDC STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF 
WINNING AGAINST MUGABE.  HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT NEITHER 
MUGABE NOR ZANU-PF LIKELY WOULD TAKE SUCH A STEP. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2480 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06297  02 OF 03  081559Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------9C86BB  081559Z /38 
O 081557Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7589 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/10 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06297  02 OF 03  081559Z 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION INCREASINGLY DIVIDED OVER 
MASS ACTION; AMBASSADOR URGES RESTRAINT 
 
5.  (C) NCUBE WENT ON TO SAY THAT WITHOUT SOME 
ASSURANCES FROM ZANU-PF THAT MUGABE IS ON HIS WAY OUT, 
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THE RADICALS IN THE 
MDC.  THE PARTY MODERATES, EVEN THOUGH THEY CONSTITUTE A 
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS, ARE FINDING IT INCREASINGLY 
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER THE DEMANDS OF THE RADICALS, AND ARE 
"LOSING MOMENTUM" TO THEM.  WHEN MDC VICE-PRESIDENT 
GIBSON SIBANDA TRIED TO CONVINCE A CROWD OF SUPPORTERS 
IN BULAWAYO NOVEMBER 5 THAT THE MDC MUST WAIT FOR 
ELECTIONS, THE CROWD SHOUTED BACK "NO," AND DEMANDED TO 
KNOW THE DATE FOR MASS ACTION.  SOME INDICATED TO 
SIBANDA THAT THEY WOULD RATHER DIE THAN WAIT ANOTHER 
YEAR TO OUST MUGABE.  NCUBE POINTED OUT THAT THERE ARE 
THOUSANDS OF HOMELESS IN THE CITIES JUST WAITING FOR THE 
CHANCE TO MARCH, AND THAT MILITANT MDC YOUTHS ARE SAYING 
THEY WILL FORCE RELUCTANT BYSTANDERS TO JOIN IN ONCE A 
DEMONSTRATION IS UNDER WAY.  NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE 
"FENCE-SITTERS" IN THE MDC WILL DETERMINE THE SUCCESS OF 
ANY MASS ACTION.  THE RADICALS KEEP TELLING THE NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE THEY CAN DELIVER THE "FENCE-SITTERS" AND BRING 
OUT A MILLION PEOPLE IN HARARE AND A HALF MILLION IN 
BULAWAYO.  NCUBE ADDED THAT SOME RADICALS DON'T CARE IF 
THOUSANDS DIE IF IT REMOVES MUGABE FROM POWER. 
 
6.  (C) NCUBE REITERATED THAT THE RADICALS IN THE PARTY 
DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE MAJORITY.  THE RADICALS 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06297  02 OF 03  081559Z 
MOST FREQUENTLY DOMINATE RALLIES AND ARE TYPICALLY THE 
MOST OUTSPOKEN.  THEY ARE THE ONES SPREADING THE WORD OF 
AN EARLY DECEMBER MASS ACTION IN AN ATTEMPT TO PRESSURE 
THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE, WHICH IS STILL DOMINATED BY 
MODERATES, INTO ANNOUNCING A MASS ACTION DATE, ACCORDING 
TO NCUBE.  SOME RADICALS HAVE ACTED DISAPPOINTED ONCE 
MDC LEADERS HAVE POINTED OUT THAT EVEN IF MUGABE 
RESIGNS, THE MDC STILL MUST WIN AN ELECTION TO GET INTO 
POWER--IT WON'T SIMPLY TAKE OVER IF MUGABE STEPS ASIDE. 
THE AMBASSADOR URGED NCUBE TO INFORM MDC SUPPORTERS OF 
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND TO RESTRAIN THEM FROM ENGAGING 
IN MASS ACTION AND TRYING TO VIOLENTLY OVERTHROW THE 
PRESIDENT.  IN ORDER FOR THE MDC TO KEEP ITS CREDIBILITY 
AND INTERNATIONAL GOODWILL, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE 
OPPOSITION TO KEEP ITS STRATEGY OF STICKING TO THE HIGH 
ROAD IN THE FACE OF GOVERNMENT VIOLENCE AND REPRESSION. 
 
7.  (C) IN RESPONSE TO A QUESTION FROM DCM, NCUBE 
CLARIFIED REMARKS MADE BY TSVANGIRAI IN DUBLIN URGING 
WESTERN COUNTRIES TO CUT DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH 
MUGABE'S GOVERNMENT.  ALTHOUGH NCUBE WAS NOT PRESENT, HE 
SAID THAT TSVANGIRAI MAY HAVE MISSTATED HIS POINT--THAT 
THE MDC IS URGING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SUSPEND 
AID AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUPPORT IN ORDER TO ISOLATE 
THE GOVERNMENT.  THE MDC DOES NOT WANT FOREIGN COUNTRIES 
TO CUT RELATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE.  ZIMBABWE IS BIGGER THAN 
MUGABE OR ZANU-PF, NCUBE SAID, AND THE MDC DOES NOT WANT 
TO SEE FOREIGN INVESTORS PASSING UP ZIMBABWE, EVEN IF IT 
MEANS DEALING WITH MUGABE.  THE MDC IS TALKING TO 
MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE NKOSANA 
MOYO TO ENSURE THAT TRADE WITH ZIMBABWE CONTINUES.  THE 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06297  02 OF 03  081559Z 
MDC IS TRYING TO KEEP INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CHANNELS 
OPEN BECAUSE IT DOES NOT WANT TO INHERIT A COMPLETELY 
DESTROYED ECONOMY. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT: DESPITE THE AMBASSADOR'S URGINGS OF 
RESTRAINT, NCUBE RETURNED AGAIN AND AGAIN TO THE THEME 
OF RADICALS IN THE MDC GAINING MORE INFLUENCE OVER 
MODERATES IN THE PARTY.  THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN BORNE 
OUT IN THE MDC TABLING OF THE MUGABE IMPEACHMENT MOTION 
IN LATE OCTOBER.  TWO OF THE PARTY'S "RADICALS," TRUDY 
STEVENSON AND EDDIE CROSS, HAD PUSHED HARD OVER 
TSVANGIRAI'S OBJECTIONS TO BEGIN THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESS 
 
SIPDIS 
(REFTEL).  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MDC IS MERELY 
TRYING TO PROVIDE US AN EXCUSE FOR INSTIGATING MASS 
ACTION, IT ALSO HAS GOOD REASON TO ACT SOON RATHER THAN 
WAIT UNTIL 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO OUST MUGABE. 
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO 
DESTROY THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY SO THAT IF THE MDC DOES 
COME TO POWER, IT WILL BE SET UP FOR FAILURE, AND ZANU- 
PF CAN SWEEP BACK IN AT SOME POINT.  IN ANY CASE, THE 
VOICES OF ACTION IN THE MDC DO APPEAR TO BE GETTING THE 
UPPER HAND, AND THE MDC LEADERSHIP MAY NOT BE ABLE TO 
FORESTALL MASS ACTION AND ASSOCIATED VIOLENCE MUCH 
LONGER, PARTICULARLY IF IT GETS NO HELP FROM THE 
GOVERNMENT IN THIS CONNECTION.  END COMMENT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2481 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06297  03 OF 03  081559Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------9C86C1  081559Z /38 
O 081557Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7590 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/10 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06297  03 OF 03  081559Z 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION INCREASINGLY DIVIDED OVER 
MASS ACTION; AMBASSADOR URGES RESTRAINT 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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