US embassy cable - 04HARARE122

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000122 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: LESS VIOLENCE - BUT ZANU-PF STILL AHEAD IN RUN-UP 
TO IMPORTANT BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: A. HARARE 54 
 
     B. 2003 HARARE 2359 
     C. 2003 HARARE 1931 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The MDC candidate in an upcoming 
by-election reported that the pre-election environment was 
less threatening than press reports describe.  A Minister 
reiterated ZANU-PF's age-old theme that the West was 
responsible for Zimbabwe's problems at a rally for the ruling 
party candidate.  If the ZANU-PF candidate won, questions 
remain as to whether he has the charisma to unify the party 
in the province.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) On January 20, with colleagues from the British, 
Swedish and Spanish Embassies, poloff visited Gutu-North, 
attended a ZANU-PF rally, and met with candidates for a 
February 7 - 8 by-election there.  The parliamentary seat in 
Gutu-North was left vacant with the September 2003 death of 
Vice-President Simon Muzenda (Ref C). 
 
Intimidation Less than Newspapers Report 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Although The Standard, an independent weekly, 
reported that "marauding" ZANU-PF youths and war veterans had 
"laid siege" to Gutu-North, effectively making it impossible 
for the MDC to campaign, in a conversation with poloff the 
MDC candidate Casper Musoni denied that ZANU-PF had brought 
any noticeable number of extra people, war veterans, youth 
militia members, or illicit voters into the constituency. 
Musoni said that ruling party supporters had beaten three of 
his campaign staff, who subsequently needed medical 
attention, and he confirmed a Zimbabwe Independent report 
that one other businessman was beaten during the past week, 
allegedly for opposition political affiliation.  Musoni also 
confirmed press reports that on January 16 ruling party 
supporters in three vehicles had attempted to detain him in 
his vehicle.  Musoni evaded the vehicles that he said tried 
to block him from driving forward, returned to his 
restaurant, and called police who escorted him home.  Musoni 
said that notorious war veteran Joseph Chinotimba had 
recently visited Musoni's restaurant and torn down campaign 
posters inside and threatened staff.   Other than these 
incidents, he said he knew of no other reports of violence or 
intimidation.  Musoni said that in general he did not feel 
threatened, and he did not think the pre-election environment 
was particularly threatening. 
 
MDC Candidate Not Optimistic 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Musoni reported that he had been engaged in daily 
door-to-door campaigning and had not attempted to hold any 
large meetings yet.  The Standard reported that Musoni had 
not been able to hold a single rally in the constituency, but 
Musoni said that he only submitted a list of prospective 
rallies to police on January 19 and that they had not 
responded yet.  Musoni said his first rally would be on 
January 22 or 23.  Musoni said he had already received about 
Z$4.5 million (US$1,125) from the MDC national office, and he 
expected to receive another allotment of the same amount for 
campaign expenses.  He said he had 1350 volunteers working on 
his campaign, and he was using the money to pay for bus fare 
and food for the volunteers to visit far-flung areas and 
encourage voters.  Musoni said he hoped some in the MDC 
leadership would visit soon to give speeches and help his 
campaign.  He complained that ZANU-PF had all of the 
government structures in the area - manpower, vehicles, and 
fuel - mobilized for the ruling party campaign, giving 
Tungamirai an unfair advantage. 
 
Horse Confirmed Dead at ZANU-PF Rally 
------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) At the invitation of ZANU-PF candidate Retired Air 
Chief Marshal Josiah Tungamirai, poloff attended a ZANU-PF 
rally in Nerupiri (just outside Gutu-North).  Minister of 
Youth, Gender and Employment Creation Elliott Manyika 
delivered the main campaign message that sanctions from the 
West were responsible for the economic difficulties the 
country was experiencing, and that only ZANU-PF could defend 
the country against imperialist forces bent on controlling 
the land.  At one point Manyika pointed to poloff and the 
other diplomats in attendance and said in Shona, they are so 
interested in the land that they have followed us all the way 
here from Harare.  Tungamirai passed out sample ballots and 
led an extensive clinic on how to mark a ballot for a ZANU-PF 
candidate that included a description of good X's (big bold 
ones) in the appropriate box, and bad X's (small, 
non-descript ones).  The average age of the approximately 200 
rural attendees appeared to be 65, and most sat on the ground 
under trees in the area designated for the rally.  There were 
three uniformed police officers present, two of whom sat 
through the entire 3-hour event, while the third stood out on 
the road leading into the area. 
 
When the Going Gets Rough - Change the Subject 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6.  (C) After the rally, poloff and the other diplomats met 
for an engaging round-table discussion with Tungamirai and 
Manyika back at a hotel in Gutu-North.  Tungamirai came off 
as rather quiet, perhaps a little tired, and not as talkative 
as the jovial Manyika.  During a discussion about whether 
food had ever been distributed at a political rally, 
Tungamirai denied that it ever had, and said that that would 
imply that without food there would be no reason to have 
campaign rallies.  When asked to describe his campaign 
message, Tungamirai deferred to the Minister, who elaborated 
on the sanctions and land issues at length.  Whenever the 
discussion ranged into territory that Manyika was 
uncomfortable with such as freedom of speech, GOZ food 
politicization, or GOZ economic policy, he would change the 
subject to Iraq, crime in America, or alleged politicization 
of donor food aid. 
 
7.  (C) Tungamirai had scheduled about 25 rallies in the 
final three weeks of the campaign.  For most he expected 
ZANU-PF Ministers or deputy Ministers to visit and deliver 
keynote addresses. 
 
8.  (C) Tungamirai contested the ZANU-PF nomination for the 
seat in 2000 but lost to the late Vice President Simon 
Muzenda, and Musoni ran (unsuccessfully) against Muzenda in 
that year.  Tungamirai recently resigned his non-constituency 
MP seat to run for the Gutu-North slot.  In 2000 Musoni 
polled 8,179 votes to Muzenda's 14,867.  In the 2002 
Presidential race MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai polled 
8,934 to President Mugabe's 22,524 votes. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  That the remaining independent newspapers 
in Zimbabwe exaggerated the level of pre-election violence in 
Gutu-North demonstrates the difficulty in getting a clear 
picture of this highly polarized political environment. 
 
10.  (C) Given the previous parliamentary and presidential 
election results from Gutu-North, we would expect ZANU-PF to 
retain the seat.  Albeit, there are factors which favor the 
MDC: an environment of lower political tension than previous 
by-elections, the MDC national office contribution of more 
funds to the campaign than previously reported (Ref A), and 
the economy's continued slide.  But factors favorable to 
ZANU-PF - the MDC waited until two weeks before the vote to 
hold its first rally, it is a rural constituency 
(traditionally ZANU-PF strongholds), the ruling party has an 
aggressive rally schedule and is demonstrating considerably 
more organizational energy and capacity - suggest an MDC win 
is unlikely. 
 
11.  (C) Quiet and politically inexperienced, Tungamirai did 
not impress poloff with any outward charisma, and he did not 
relate to the electorate assembled for the rally in as 
personable a manner as Manyika.  But the task of uniting the 
divided Karanga factions in the Masvingo province (Ref B) 
might call for more back-room negotiating skills - something 
we will likely never observe directly - rather than political 
glad-handing. 
SULLIVAN