US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU133

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2014 
TAGS: MOPS, PTER, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  ARMY LAUNCHES AIR STRIKE AGAINST REPORTED 
MAOIST MEETING SITE 
 
 
Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) The Director of Military Operations (DMO) of the 
Royal Nepal Army (RNA) has confirmed that on January 20 the 
RNA conducted an air strike against a site in the remote 
mid-western district of Jajarkot, where the Maoists were 
reportedly holding a large rally.  According to the RNA 
source, the air operation lasted approximately 10-15 minutes, 
during which time 36 "bombs" (most likely 81mm or 82 mm 
mortar rounds) were dropped by helicopter from an improvised 
weapons system.  The RNA did not launch a ground operation to 
support the air strike, and, as of COB January 21, has been 
unable to move forces to the site to assess the battle 
damage.  Forces are expected to reach the area on foot by 
early morning January 22.  The RNA was unable to offer any 
information on possible casualties. 
 
2.  (U)  The local press reported that on January 20 the RNA 
launched an air strike against the site of a large Maoist 
gathering, convened to celebrate the announcement of the 
"People's Autonomous Government of the Bheri-Karnali Zone." 
(Note:  The Bheri-Karnali zones cover the mid-west and 
extreme north-western districts and include some of the most 
remote and least developed areas in Nepal.  End note.)  The 
reports, claiming that numerous villagers had been forced to 
attend the rally, speculated that "dozens" may have been 
killed in the attack.  Press accounts also relayed 
unconfirmed (and to us, highly unlikely) reports that Maoist 
ideologue and Central Committee member Dr. Baburam Bhattarai 
had attended the meeting and that the RNA had launched the 
attack in an effort to kill him. 
 
3.  (U)  On January 21 the Maoist web site claimed that an 
air strike conducted by "the Royal American Army" had missed 
the site of the meeting, hitting instead the home of a local 
resident, killing one villager, injuring two others, and 
destroying several water buffalo.  (Note:  Recent Maoist 
diatribes have derided the Royal Nepal Army as the "Royal 
American Army."  End note.)  Predictably, the statement on 
the web site alleged that the rally was a grand success, 
drawing thousands of loyal and flag-wavng supporters, and 
that the Maoist militia had "driven away" RNA ground forces 
purportedly brought in to support the air strike.  The 
account quoted Maoist Central Committee member Krishna 
Bahadur Mahara, who reportedly attended the meeting, as 
declaring that the "time has come to move to the cities from 
the villages." 
 
4.  (SBU)  INSEC, a local human rights NGO with district 
chapters throughout Nepal, told us that a representative from 
one of its regional offices had attended the Maoist rally and 
basically corroborated most of the account on the insurgents' 
web site.  According to that source, the RNA bombs dropped 
from a helicopter had fallen about one hour's walk to the 
west of the site of the meeting, killing a villager.  In 
contrast to the Maoist claims of repelling RNA ground forces, 
the INSEC representative said that no RNA ground troops came 
near the site of the meeting. 
 
5.  (C)  Comment:  Unlike the Maoists, the RNA has refrained 
from making official public statements regarding the air 
strike.  Until we have the RNA's battle damage assessment, it 
will remain difficult to judge which of the various 
conflicting versions seems likeliest.  We find it highly 
unlikely that someone of Bhattarai's stature, who ranks 
second in the insurgents' hierarchy, would agree to undergo 
either the considerable risks to his personal safety or the 
considerable inconvenience to his personal comfort involved 
in traveling to this difficult, inaccessible part of the 
Maoist heartland so far from his recent sanctuary in northern 
India.  If, as the press seemed to indicate, the RNA action 
was prompted by intelligence that Bhattarai might have been 
present, it seems equally unlikely, given the primitive 
nature of the weaponry apparently used in the attack, that an 
RNA air assault could have had the technical accuracy needed 
to target Bhattarai, Mahara or any other senior Maoist who 
might have been in attendance. 
MALINOWSKI