US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO414

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000414 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR, PGOV 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #17: MEJIA'S PRD PRIMARY - A 
VICTORY FORETOLD 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 355 (NOTAL) 
 
1. (SBU) This is number 17 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
      MEJIA'S PRD PRIMARY - A VICTORY FORETOLD 
 
President Mejia, running virtually unopposed in the ruling 
PRD's presidential primary January 18, won about 95 percent 
of the vote, with his sole opponent Frank J. Thomen -- a 
political unknown who ran to provide an appearance of 
competition -- picking up the remainder.  The Central 
Election Board (JCE), at the PRD's request, provided 32 
official observers to circulate at the PRD-organized polls, 
located in non-government premises.  Former president and PRD 
leader Salvador Jorge Blanco termed the primary "a total 
success" and claimed that as many as half of the party's 
nearly 1.8 million registered members had participated. 
Published partial returns showed nearly 574,000 votes tallied 
and a projected total of 733,000 votes, far more than in the 
PRD primary in 1999 or in the December rump primary that was 
declared illegal by the JCE.  President Mejia pronounced 
himself "satisfied" with the results. 
 
Dissident PRD leaders, including Vice President Milagros 
Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Secretary Rafael Subervi, Enmanuel 
Esquea, and PRD president Hatuey De Camps, refused to 
participate in the primary, alleging that the process was 
illegitimate and tainted by fraud -- "a farce," De Camps 
called it.  They charged that, by going ahead with the 
primary, Mejia had deepened factional divisions in the PRD. 
 
Government-owned "Listin Diario" ran big headlines about a 
"massive" turnout, and the PRD ran two-page newspaper ads 
with photos showing lengthy queues at various polling sites 
around the country.  Pro-PRD daily "Caribe" provided low-key 
coverage of a "timid" turnout in a "calm" atmosphere, and 
populist "El Dia" reported a "lack of enthusiasm" at many 
voting centers and a lower turnout in Santo Domingo than 
elsewhere.  Long lines at some polling sites in the northern 
Cibao Valley were attributed by "El Dia" to disproportionate 
voting by public employees, and "Listin" reported 
exceptionally high turnout in the Southwest, where Mejia's 
PPH faction of the PRD was said to be strongest.  Mejia's 
campaign director Agriculture Secretary Eligio Jaquez 
acknowledged on television that voters had taken longer than 
usual to show up at the polls the morning of election day. 
One coercive incident was reported, the theft of a ballot box 
containing 100-200 ballots. 
 
In the capital, turnout appeared moderate.  One of Mejia's 
palace advisers told us he had to wait in line 45 minutes to 
vote and observed between 60 and 120 voters at each of 5 or 6 
sites he visited around mid-day.  Poloff's casual observation 
of one polling place revealed 6-12 voters at any one time, 
plus 4-5 poll workers and several poll watchers; a 
truck-trailer prominently parked nearby bore a sign -- 
"Presidency of the Republic: Plan of Social Action." 
 
The results left Mejia as the virtual, although not yet 
formally nominated, PRD candidate; a convention of delegates 
is expected to complete this process January 25 or later. 
With no other primaries scheduled, the Central Election Board 
(JCE) on January 20 announced the formal beginning of the 
election campaign and invited political parties to register 
their candidates between now and March 16. 
The chief candidates lost no time in ramping up for the 
campaign.  Mejia's staff announced a whirlwind agenda for the 
President to tour the country between now and election day 
inaugurating public works -- roads, schools, dams, aqueducts 
-- which in time-honored tradition have been timed to boost 
his candidacy against his number one adversary in the May 16 
election, former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD). 
 
Fernandez's party claimed to have contacted 5 million voters 
(of 5.1 million registered nationwide) in a door-to-door 
verification of voter lists on the PRD's primary day, 
providing a distraction for news media and drawing criticism 
from an irritated President Mejia.  Fernandez and two senior 
advisers flew to Washington January 19 to meet with the IMF, 
World Bank, and IDB (and thus appear presidential).  Leonel 
should be back in country by the end of the week for 
announced campaign activities in advance of a "nationwide 
march" of PLD supporters January 26. 
 
The PRSC announced that its candidate, third-ranked Eduardo 
Estrella, would accelerate his campaign to publicize 
proposals to deal with economic problems and thus attract 
enough votes to place second in the election and go on to a 
possible runoff. 
 
All this left the four dissident PRD candidates marginalized, 
but not yet out. Their petition to the Supreme Court, 
alleging inconstitutionality of the voting law (reftel), has 
so far generated no action by the court.  Their possible 
alternative may lie in the stalled proposal to amend the 
election law and allow up to five candidates from each party 
to run in the general election (reftel).  Congress postponed 
debate on the controversial measure until at least next week, 
but Mejia has given the go-ahead to his legislators to 
attempt to negotiate passage.  One of the most influential 
dissident PRD candidates, Subervi, told the press January 20 
that he also backs the legal change.  According to our 
contacts, the balance among the legislators is too close to 
call. 
 
The President further called on "all the internal political 
forces of the PRD" to "mount on the horse" of his candidacy. 
Ironically, what began as a maneuver by the PRD dissidents to 
circumvent Mejia's primary and defeat his reelection bid 
could become a tool for him to bring them back into the fold, 
play to their ambitions to run for president, and keep their 
PRD constituents from deserting to Leonel Fernandez on May 16. 
 
Another wild card in the pre-election game will be a national 
strike being advertised for January 28-29 to protest social 
and economic problems and the government's policies.  It is 
being organized by the "Coordinator of Popular 
Organizations," one of the entities involved in a similar 
action last November that degenerated into sporadic violence. 
 A small leftist party participating in the event has posted 
notices with President Mejia's photo and the blunt message, 
"Why wait any longer?  He should quit now!"  The tactics of 
the President and the police in handling that challenge will 
have a resonance during the campaign. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
KUBISKE