US embassy cable - 04ANKARA317

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014 
TAGS: AJ, AM, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: BREAKTHROUGHS BETWEEN TURKEY AND ARMENIA APPEAR 
UNLIKELY 
 
REF: 2003 ANKARA 6398 
 
 
(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, E. O. 12958, reasons 
1.5 (b) and (d), 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In a January 14 meeting, Turkish MFA 
Caucasus Department Head Murat Adali reaffirmed that Turkey 
linked opening the Armenian border and full diplomatic 
relations to Armenian concessions in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) 
(reftel).  Although MFA officials will travel to Yerevan in 
February, they are not taking any significant new proposals 
with them, nor do any appear imminent.  Adali was downbeat on 
the prospect of opening the border to Turkish and Armenian 
diplomats, citing what he claims are "practical" problems. 
End Summary. 
 
 
Policy Changes Still Linked to Nagorno-Karabakh 
 
 
2.  (C) Adali began by declaring that Armenia "must take the 
first step" in order for the border to be opened and 
relations to be normalized.  According to Adali, for any 
breakthrough, Armenia will first have to make concessions on 
NK and occupied territories, and explicitly recognize the 
Turkish-Armenian border.  However, in the course of almost 
two hours of discussion, Adali discussed NK and the 
territories in detail and did not mention the border again, 
as if he considers the border issue a throwaway. 
 
 
3.  (C) Adali noted that Armenian President Kocharian has 
refused to withdraw from occupied territories, in part 
because Kocharian said Armenia will need 5000 additional 
troops to guard the new border.  However, Adali thinks time 
is on Turkey's side for concessions on NK and the 
territories.  He claims that Russians are withdrawing support 
for Kocharian, and that the closed border is hurting Armenia 
economically. 
 
 
4.  (C) Adali characterized the linkage as a matter of 
"ethics."  Asked what ethical principle he was talking about, 
he replied "we (Turkey and Azerbaijan) speak the same 
language."  He is bitter about what he perceives as the U.S. 
and Western Europe favoring Armenia in the dispute with 
Azerbaijan, at one point saying that the "international 
community" really means "the Christian community." 
 
 
MFA Officials Travel to Yerevan in February 
 
 
5.  (C) Adali said he and DDG Tezgor are going to Yerevan for 
talks in early or mid February.  They are carrying a proposal 
for Armenian withdrawals from five occupied rayons to which 
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev "gave the green light" during FM 
Gul's January 9-10 visit to Azerbaijan.  (Adali thinks of 
this as a "new" idea.) 
 
 
6.  (C) Adali said the Turkish/Armenian "roadmap" for better 
relations was 80% complete, with exception of "regional 
aspects" (i.e., NK -- the main item).  He added, without 
elaborating, that Turkey and Armenia will unveil some 
economic confidence building measures in the near future. 
 
 
"Practical Problems" in Opening Border to Diplomats 
 
 
7.  (C) Asked whether Turkey will open the border to Turkish 
and Armenian diplomatic passport holders soon, Adali asked 
rhetorically, "what is soon"?  Adali said such a measure is 
"not a political problem" but is a "practical" problem.  He 
said that setting up and staffing a border crossing that will 
only be used infrequently would be a waste of resources, 
especially in winter.  Adali also questioned the practical 
necessity of the measure when Turkish and Armenian diplomats 
can fly from Yerevan to Istanbul on existing charter flights. 
 
 
Genocide Resolution "Is Your Problem" 
 
 
8.  (C) Adali asserted the possibility of a genocide 
resolution in the U.S. Congress "is your problem."  He 
asserted without elaborating that such a resolution will have 
no effect on Turkey and predicted it would have only 
short-term effects on U.S.-Turkey relations (Caucasus DDG 
Tezgor made the same assertion in October). 
 
 
Turkey-Armenia Trade 
 
 
9.  (C) Adali estimated current Turkey/Armenia trade at $100 
million annually, which he said makes Turkey Armenia's second 
largest trading partner.  Much of the trade consists of 
durable consumer goods exported from Turkey to Armenia. 
Adali characterized the trade as more important for Armenia 
than Turkey, estimating that trade would "only" reach $200 
million even if the border is opened. 
 
 
10.  (C) Comment:  Adali's narrow vision, while not 
characteristic of all MFA officials, is an example of what 
Turkey must overcome in order to improve relations with 
Armenia.  While his minimizing the impact of an Armenian 
genocide resolution is not credible, it reflects a hidebound 
bureaucratic mentality that is all too common, as does his 
failure to grasp the importance of opening the border to 
diplomats.  End Comment. 
EDELMAN