US embassy cable - 04LAGOS111

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000111 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOL WASHDC FOR ROBERT YOUNG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, KDEM, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: DEREGULATION AND THE FUEL TAX: HIGHER 
PUMP PRICES PROMPT LASCO TO CALL A JANUARY 21 
NATIONWIDE STRIKE 
 
1.  On January 7, 2004, the Nigeria Labour (NLC) warned 
the GON that labor and civil society groups will call a 
nationwide strike beginning January 21 if the GON fails 
to rescind its proposed 1.50 naira per liter fuel tax 
before that date. Although the National Assembly has 
not approved the tax proposal (in fact, Obasanjo has 
deleted it from his budget request), the fuel tax or an 
equivalent levy is reportedly being charged at service 
stations throughout the nation.  Since issuing the 14- 
day ultimatum, labor has emphasized that its position 
includes an earlier demand that service stations sell 
fuel at the pre-October regulated price of 34 naira per 
liter.  Anthony Jones, the AFL-CIO Solidarity Center 
Country Director who is working closely with the NLC to 
avert a strike, told Laboff that "mobilization" is just 
beginning, suggesting that the Labor and Civil Society 
Coalition (LASCO) efforts will likely be much less 
organized than the nationwide strike in July 2003 and 
the "mobilization" campaign for a threatened strike in 
October. 
 
2.  Laboff spoke to NLC Deputy President Joseph 
Akinlaja on January 13 regarding the possible strike 
and asked him if the NLC would consider suspending the 
strike if the GON does not approve the tax.  Akinlaja 
said the NLC would continue mobilizing until fuel 
prices revert to the 34 naira per liter price.  Despite 
press reports and public perception that clearly 
focuses on the fuel tax or levy as the impetus for the 
mass action, Akinlaja contends that deregulation 
remains at the heart of the conflict.  He said LASCO, 
which is comprised of approximately fifty civil society 
groups, the NLC, and the Congress of Free Trade Unions 
(CFTU), is meeting around-the-clock to develop and 
implement a mobilization strategy to meet the January 
21 strike date.  Despite LASCO's widespread support, 
the Trade Union Congress (TUC), which includes the 
Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of 
Nigeria (PENGASSAN), has not agreed to participate in 
the strike. 
 
3.  At the beginning of its mobilization efforts, the 
NLC held several unorganized and poorly attended pre- 
strike rallies on January 15.  Akinlaja, who spoke at 
an event in Ikeja, Lagos, told the audience that the 
NLC has put in place a plan that will ensure that the 
strike achieves its objectives.  These objectives 
include the call for the immediate lowering of the fuel 
price back to the 34 naira per liter.  Although 
Akinlaja did not comment on why the turnout at the much- 
publicized rally was unimpressive, he reiterated 
labor's commitment "to give whatever it takes to force 
government to accede to the NLC's demands."  After the 
event, Labspec asked several labor leaders to respond 
to recent press reports that President Obasanjo had 
sent a letter to the National Assembly on January 14 
requesting that the fuel tax proposal be withdrawn from 
consideration.   These labor leaders contend that the 
President's letter was merely designed to deceive 
Nigerians.  They also claim that Obasanjo is attempting 
to distance himself from criticism while giving 
Nigerians time to adjust to de facto implementation of 
higher fuel prices. 
 
4.  Comment:  Months of strike threats followed by 
failed agreements between labor and the GON have taken 
a toll on the Nigerian public, making people less and 
less ready to answer labor's "mobilization" calls. 
While most Nigerians bitterly oppose the fuel tax, they 
are becoming less confident in the NLC's ability to 
lead in these types of "quality of life" issues.  NLC 
leaders recognize that their credibility has been 
severely damaged due to their decision to suspend 
previous strike actions in favor of GON-NLC negotiated 
agreements, which the GON has often failed to 
implement.  Desperately in need of a victory to sell to 
its constituents, the NLC may choose to strike, no 
matter what the GON does or does not do, merely to try 
to send a message to Obasanjo that the organization is 
still a major political player.  However, since labor 
is not prepared to sustain a strike and mobilization 
has been relatively weak, cooler heads within LASCO may 
choose to use Obasanjo's attempt to remove the fuel tax 
to claim victory and call off the strike.  This 
scenario is even more likely since labor leaders have 
told Laboff that they do not expect to win the battle 
over deregulation.  If the NLC decides to call the 
strike, Nigerians may stay home from work for a time 
but protests will likely be poorly attended, 
unorganized, and short-lived.  End comment. 
 
HINSON-JONES