US embassy cable - 00HARARE6189

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006189 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06189  01 OF 02  021438Z 
"YOUNG TURK" 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 5829 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 1, AMBASSADOR AND POLOFF 
MET WITH NEW ZANU-PF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT SAVIOUR 
"TYSON" KASUKUWERE TO DISCUSS A VARIETY OF ISSUES, 
INCLUDING DEVELOPMENTS IN HIS PARTY.  KASUKUWERE, A 
YOUNGISH BUSINESSMAN WITH STRONG PARTY TIES, SAID THAT 
THE LAND ISSUE HAD BEEN BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION AND THAT 
FARMLAND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AWAY FROM WHITE FARMERS BY 
FORCE.  HE ALSO PLAINLY STATED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE AND 
HIS CRONIES MUST BE PHASED OUT OF THEIR LEADERSHIP ROLE 
AND PROPOSED THAT THE TWO VICE-PRESIDENTS SHOULD STEP 
DOWN AS A FIRST STEP.  THE MP STRUCK A MORE MODERATE 
TONE THAN HIS "OLD GUARD" COUNTERPARTS IN PARLIAMENT, 
BUT HE IS STILL VERY MUCH A ZANU-PF LOYALIST WITH A 
SHADY BACKGROUND.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------- 
MP DEBATES LAND 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C) ON NOVEMBER 1, AMBASSADOR AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) 
MET WITH THE NEW ZANU-PF MP FOR MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH 
SAVIOUR "TYSON" KASUKUWERE, TO DISCUSS A VARIETY OF 
ISSUES, INCLUDING LAND AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN HIS 
PARTY.  ON LAND, HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE ISSUE HAD 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06189  01 OF 02  021438Z 
BECOME POLITICIZED AND HAD BEEN ALLOWED TO BECOME 
"EVERYTHING" IN POLITICAL DEBATE.  COMMERCIAL FARMLAND 
SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN FORCEFULLY FROM THEIR OWNERS, BUT 
THERE IS A NEED FOR LAND REDISTRIBUTION, KASUKUWERE 
OFFERED.  WHEN ASKED BY THE AMBASSADOR ON THE WAY 
FORWARD ON LAND REFORM, THE MP SAID THAT ZIMBABWE WILL 
AT SOME POINT HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE DONORS TO FINANCE 
FARM PURCHASES.  THE AMBASSADOR STRESSED THAT DONORS 
WERE VERY UNLIKELY TO RESUME FUNDING UNTIL LAW AND ORDER 
HAD BEEN RESTORED ON THE FARMS.  KASUKUWERE STATED THAT 
SQUATTERS MUST BE REMOVED FROM FARMS NOT DESIGNATED FOR 
COMPULSORY ACQUISITION, IMPLYING THAT SQUATTERS ON 
DESIGNATED PROPERTIES SHOULD REMAIN. 
 
------------------------------ 
NEW DEAL ON MUGABE SUCCESSION? 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  THE CONVERSATION TURNED TO ZANU-PF INTERNAL POLITICS 
AND THE SUCCESSION ISSUE.  KASUKUWERE OPENLY STATED THAT 
PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES MUST BE PHASED OUT IN 
ORDER FOR ZANU-PF TO SURVIVE.  THE MP SUGGESTED THAT 
SOME IN THE PARTY ARE TRYING TO GET THE TWO AGED VICE- 
PRESIDENTS, SIMON MUZENDA AND JOSEPH MSIKA, TO STEP DOWN 
AS A FIRST STEP.  THAT WOULD THEN PROVIDE A STEPPING 
STONE FOR YOUNGER MEN SUCH AS SIMBA MAKONI OR SYDNEY 
SEKERAMAYI TO MOVE UP INTO A POSITION TO BECOME THE 
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT.  WHEN ASKED ABOUT 
MAKONI'S POWER BASE, KASUKUWERE SAID THAT MAKONI HAS 
ENOUGH CONNECTIONS WITH BUSINESS AND AN UNDERSTANDING OF 
POLITICS TO MAKE HIM THE NEXT PRESIDENT.  HE IS NOT A 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  06189  01 OF 02  021438Z 
TECHNOCRAT, AS MANY HAVE SAID, BUT HAS HIS OWN BASE OF 
SUPPORT.  KASUKUWERE SUGGESTED THAT SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND FORMER HOME AFFAIRS 
MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA ARE ALSO CONTENDERS FOR VICE- 
PRESIDENT, AND EVENTUALLY, PRESIDENT.  MNANGAGWA HAS 
EARNED A GREAT DEAL OF RESPECT ACROSS THE POLITICAL 
SPECTRUM FOR HIS EVENHANDEDNESS IN OVERSEEING 
PARLIAMENT, THE MP OPINED.  (COMMENT: MNANGAGWA'S 
EVENHANDEDNESS HAS BEEN SELECTIVE.  HE STILL QUELLS 
DEBATE AND MANIPULATES PARLIAMENTARY PROCEDURE IN ZANU- 
PF'S FAVOR WHEN CRITICAL VOTES ARE ON THE LINE.  THE 
SPEAKER IS ALSO REPUTED TO BE FEARED AND DISLIKED BY 
SENIOR MEMBERS OF HIS OWN PARTY.  KASUKUWERE'S REMARKS 
SUGGEST THAT HE MUST BE ONE OF MNANGAGWA'S FEW VOCAL 
SUPPORTERS.  END COMMENT.)  EVERYONE IN ZANU-PF CAN 
"READ THE SIGNS" THAT CHANGE IS COMING, EVEN THE OLD 
GUARD, KASUKUWERE SAID.  THE PARTY CANNOT AFFORD TO 
POSTPONE REFORM ANY LONGER, BUT, NONETHELESS, IT MUST BE 
CARRIED OUT IN A MANAGED WAY, THE MP REMARKED. 
 
--------------------------- 
LOCAL ELECTIONS AND THE DRC 
--------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3650 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06189  02 OF 02  021438Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------99F110  021438Z /38 
R 021437Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7506 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006189 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06189  02 OF 02  021438Z 
"YOUNG TURK" 
 
4. (C) KASUKUWERE WRAPPED UP BY SAYING THAT THE GOZ IS 
DELAYING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN HARARE AND OTHER CITIES 
UNTIL ZANU-PF CAN WORK OUT A PLAN TO WIN THEM.  IF 
ELECTIONS WERE HELD TOMORROW, THE MDC WOULD CLEARLY 
SWEEP EVERY CITY COUNCIL AND MAYORSHIP, THE MP ADMITTED. 
HE ALSO AFFIRMED THAT HE IS CHAIRMAN OF THE DEFENSE AND 
HOME AFFAIRS COMMITTEE IN PARLIAMENT, AND THAT HE HAS 
SPOKEN WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ABOUT WITHDRAWING 
ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS FROM THE DRC.  HE SAID, WITHOUT 
ELABORATING, THAT SOME TROOPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROUGHT 
BACK HOME. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT: KASUKUWERE STRUCK A MORE MODERATE TONE 
IN HIS REMARKS THAN HIS "OLD GUARD" COUNTERPARTS, AND 
CLEARLY INDICATED BY WHAT HE TOLD US THAT HE COULD BE 
CONSIDERED A "YOUNG TURK" IN THE PARTY (REFTEL). 
HOWEVER, THAT DOES NOT MEAN HIS LOYALTY TO ZANU-PF IS 
WAVERING, OR THAT HE IS CONSIDERING CLOSE COOPERATION 
WITH THE MDC.  OTHER SOURCES HAVE TOLD US THAT THE 
BRAWNY KASUKUWERE DIRECTED THE CAMPAIGN OF PRE-ELECTION 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION IN HIS MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH 
DISTRICT, ONE OF THE MOST HEAVILY AFFECTED AREAS.  IT 
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTRIBUTED TO HIS SWEEPING VICTORY OVER HIS 
MDC RIVAL.  HIS COMMENTS ABOUT GETTING THE VICE- 
PRESIDENTS TO RESIGN ARE INTERESTING AND IT IS NOT 
UNTHINKABLE THAT SUCH A PLAN MAY BE UNDER CONSIDERATION 
WITHIN THE PARTY.  HOWEVER, IF THE OLD GUARD IS SOON 
REPLACED BY THE YOUNGER GENERATION, IT MAY NOT 
NECESSARILY HARBINGER A WHOLESALE CHANGE IN HOW ZANU-PF 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  06189  02 OF 02  021438Z 
RUNS THE COUNTRY.  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (C) BIO NOTE: SAVIOUR KASUKUWERE IS APPROXIMATELY 
35-40 YEARS OLD.  HE ORIGINALLY HAILS FROM MARONDERA 
DISTRICT, WHERE HIS FAMILY WAS INVOLVED IN THE 1970S 
LIBERATION WAR.  HE ATTENDED UNIVERSITY IN BERLIN BEFORE 
JOINING THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO), 
WHERE HE SERVED FOR 8-9 YEARS.  KASUKUWERE JOINED THE 
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE IN 1995 BEFORE BEING ELECTED TO 
PARLIAMENT IN 2000.  HE OWNS A TRUCKING BUSINESS IN 
MUTARE (FAR FROM HIS PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY OF MOUNT 
DARWIN SOUTH--HE LIKES TO KEEP BUSINESS AND POLITICS 
"SEPARATE," HE TOLD US.)  HE HAS GOOD ACCESS TO FINANCE 
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, WHOM HE AND BUSINESS PARTNERS 
APPROACHED RECENTLY FOR HELP IN OBTAINING FINANCING FOR 
HIS BUSINESS OPERATIONS.  HE IS MARRIED WITH THREE YOUNG 
CHILDREN.  END BIO NOTE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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