US embassy cable - 04RANGOON82

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000082 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2005 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, NLD 
SUBJECT: RUMP CEC PUTTING HOUSE IN ORDER 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 16 
 
     B. 03 RANGOON 1653 
     C. 03 BANGKOK 8212 
 
Classified By: CDA, a.i. Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The five NLD CEC members not under house 
arrest continue to meet daily and are pushing the security 
envelope further.  The CEC is "putting the house back in 
order" and has held meetings with NLD Chairs from all of 
Burma's States and Divisions.  Township-level meetings have 
begun as well.  The CEC received briefings from most of the 
participants in the Dec 15 Thai-sponsored Burma meeting in 
Bangkok.  The CEC says a KNU cease-fire is a good thing and 
won't hurt them in a National Convention.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) Four of the five free NLD Central Executive Committee 
members met with PolOff January 14 to discuss recent 
developments.  U Nyunt Wei, the NLD's economic advisor, 
provided the following points: 
 
- NLD is busy putting its house back in order.  Though still 
not in communication with ASSK, the rump CEC has held 
meetings with NLD Division and State Chairs, and are now 
beginning meetings with township-level Chairs.  So far the 
security forces have not interfered.  The message the CEC 
most frequently hears from the rank and file party membership 
is "when will the revolution start?" 
 
- At the request of the CEC (ref B), the French, Italian, 
German, Japanese, UNDP, and Razali's representative Leon de 
Reidmatten have all stopped in to brief the CEC on the 
December Thai-sponsored meeting on Burma (ref C).  The 
Chinese and Indians have declined to accept the invitation. 
 
- The CEC mailed a confidential letter to Sr Gen Than Shwe 
first week of January "respectfully requesting" the SPDC 
explain what the 7-point road map is all about.  U Nyunt Wei 
offered that it is difficult to plan if NLD doesn't know what 
the details are.  No response to date. 
 
- The CEC disagrees with UNSYG Annan's categorization of the 
SPDC road map as a democratic transition, and views it 
instead as the legitimization of a military dictatorship. 
 
- The road map is nothing new, it merely states the steps 
that have always been needed to form a new government.  The 
timing of the announcement of the road map was designed to 
take attention away from the Depeyin attack, and to respond 
to U.S. sanctions. 
 
- The visit of KNU leader Gen Bo Mya is a good thing -- 
"everyone should be talking and not shooting"" each other. 
Nyunt Wei feels "Bo Mya won't throw 50 years of work down the 
drain to promote a dictatorship."  And a KNU cease-fire would 
not weaken the NLD's position on the National Convention 
(NC).  "They can hold it without us anyway." 
 
- The CEC is aware of the Shan Nationalities League for 
Democracy (SNLD) decision to send delegates' names to the 
SPDC for the NC.  (Comment: But the SNLD has not committed to 
participate unless its stringent conditions are met.)  U 
Nyunt Wei opined it is possible the SPDC is going to pull 
many of the ethnic groups into the NC. 
 
- Regarding political tactics used for the road map, the SPDC 
will press for what is wants, then the NLD will do the same 
-- and then compromise will follow.  Nyunt Wei again said 
that the entire road map process is merely designed to 
legitimize a military dictatorship. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  The continued detention of ASSK and other 
NLD leaders has heretofore paralyzed the democracy movement. 
However, the rump CEC's dogged determination to press on is a 
clear reminder that the SPDC can tighten the noose but not 
extinguish the flame of dissent.  The CEC's letter to Sr Gen 
Than Shwe is indication that the NLD has not ruled out 
participation in the National Convention.  END SUMMARY. 
McMullen