US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU122

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000122 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, NP 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: ARE THE STUDENT PROTESTS RESONATING WITHIN 
NEPALI SOCIETY? 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 64 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert K. Boggs for reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Now at the month-long mark, student 
union-led protests have grown increasingly critical of the 
King and have even begun calling for the abolition of the 
monarchy and the institution of a republican state.  The 
demonstrations are the largest and most sustained protests 
since the dissolution of Nepal's Parliament in October 2002. 
Although the political parties have not sanctioned officially 
the student unions' call for a republic, party leaders have 
claimed that there is a small, but growing, sentiment within 
the parties that the monarchy has made itself obsolete.  The 
government claims that Maoists are influencing the 
demonstrators, using the protests to discredit the King and 
drive a wedge between the government and the people.  It 
remains unclear whether the student protests reflect popular 
sentiment in Nepal or whether they are merely a manifestation 
of the political parties' efforts to pressure the King to 
appoint an all-party government.  End Summary. 
 
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Student Demonstrations: Calls for Republican State 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2. (C)  On January 15, the ongoing student protests reached 
the one-month mark and, in the past few days, have turned 
more destructive and more anti-monarchical.  During a 
one-hour nation-wide road blockade on January 14, 
demonstrators called for a republican state and the abolition 
of the monarchy.  According to Gagan Thapa, General Secretary 
of the Nepal Students Union (NSU), the Nepali Congress 
party's student wing, three of the seven main student unions 
had decided formally to call for a republican state.  Two of 
the three are affiliated with the far-left political parties 
-- People's Front Nepal and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party 
-- while the other is the Maoist student wing, operating 
underground since the end of the ceasefire.  Thapa contends 
that public opinion favors the student protests and that 
calls for a republican state have led visibly to an increase 
in the number of demonstrators over the past two days.  Thapa 
reported that, on January 14, there were at least 2,000 
protesters in Kathmandu with only 25 percent of them active 
members of the student unions. 
 
3. (C) Thapa indicated that NSU and the CPN-UML affiliated 
student union, ANNFSU, would meet on January 15 to plan the 
student protest program for the next two weeks.  He said it 
is likely that the two unions would focus their protests on 
one key demand: that the King step back from the "royal move 
of October 4, 2002 (in which the King dismissed then-Prime 
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba) and restore power to the 
people."  Thapa was vague about how the King should restore 
power to the people, agreeing that both restoration of the 
parliament or an all-party government would satisfy that 
demand.  If the King fails to act, however, NSU and ANNFSU 
might decide to join the call for a republican state, he 
said.  Thapa claimed that the protests will continue until 
the King satisfies the student unions' demand. 
 
4. (C) Although the demonstrations initially were limited to 
Kathmandu, police contacts reported that on January 14, 
students took to the streets in 24 of Nepal's 75 districts in 
groups ranging from 50 demonstrators to several thousand. 
Some of these demonstrations turned violent, leaving five 
students wounded in Kathmandu, six in Chitwan District in the 
lowland Terai and seven in Makwanpur District, south of 
Kathmandu Valley.  According to NSU's Gagan Thapa, none of 
the injuries were critical, and no students remain in the 
hospital.  Despite numerous arrests on January 14, all 
students were released that same day.  In at least one 
district, political party leaders participated in the 
protests.  One contact in Chitwan District indicated that 
roughly 500 people participated in the January 14 
demonstration, which led to the injury of a CPN-UML district 
leader and the ex-deputy mayor of Bharatpur during a baton 
charge by police. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Political Parties Stand Back, But Not Too Far 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Although political party leaders claim that the 
students' call for a republican state is not sanctioned 
officially, some elements within the parties appear to be 
supportive of the student movement.  Press reports on January 
14 quoted Nepali Congress Treasurer Mahanta Thakur with 
suggesting that the protests would continue "until and unless 
the King abdicates the throne."  Reacting to this press 
report, Nepali Congress Spokesperson, Arjun K.C., said 
privately that Thakur's statement did not reflect party 
policy, but was the personal opinion of some party members. 
Sujata Koirala, daughter of Nepali Congress President and 
frequent Prime Minister G.P. Koirala, claimed "that is what 
the young people are saying." She added that a recent 
delegation of Nepali Congress student leaders had told her 
father they would press their republican aims, even against 
party Central Committee policy. 
 
6. (C) Likewise, Jhala Nath Khanal, International Relations 
Director for the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist 
Leninist (CPN-UML), indicated that some party members might 
be encouraging the student movement and that there is a 
growing sentiment within the party that perhaps the monarchy 
should be abolished.  Another CPN-UML leader, K.P. Oli was 
quoted by the press with suggesting that the students' slogan 
"in favor of a republic is not a problem, but an attempt to 
resolve the problem."  Khanal blamed, in part, the Indian 
Government for being a "poor influence" on the student 
movement and suggested that India was encouraging the rising 
anti-monarchical sentiment in Nepal. 
 
7. (SBU) On January 16, the Royal Nepal Army spokesman, 
Colonel Deepak Gurung averred that Maoists are "involved" in 
the ongoing student demonstrations.  Although Gurung provided 
few details, he suggested that Maoists might be using the 
protests to commit violence against the government. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) It is unclear whether the ongoing student union-led 
demonstrations reflect popular sentiment in Nepal.  They are 
the largest and longest sustained protests since the 
dissolution of Parliament in October 2002.  It is important 
to recognize, however, that the student union leadership is 
comprised predominantly by men in their mid-30s and 40s who 
are not students, but politicians in their own right.  The 
student union leaders' capacity to rally support around a 
particular slogan might have more to do with the lack of 
youth employment opportunities and the current winter recess 
for public universities than with broad-based dissatisfaction 
with the monarchy on the part of Nepal's youth.  Many urban 
Nepalis allege that some demonstrators have less interest in 
political causes than in daily stipends paid by the parties 
for demonstrating.  Many of our Nepali contacts also have 
expressed disapproval of the vandalism of private property by 
the demonstrators. 
 
9. (C) However, no one within the political parties or in 
civil society has criticized the growing radicalization of 
the student movement.  Although the political parties allege 
that the student unions' call for a republican state is not 
sanctioned by the parties themselves, the parties are no 
doubt using the student movement to maintain pressure on the 
King while refraining from direct confrontation with the 
Palace.  The possibility that the Maoists have infiltrated 
the ranks of protesters is unsurprising given the Maoist 
political agenda.  Maoists would like nothing more than to 
discredit the King and drive a wedge between the political 
parties and the government.  Absent greater progress toward 
reconciliation between the King and the parties, we expect 
the student protests to continue.  End Comment. 
MALINOWSKI