US embassy cable - 04RANGOON74

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000074 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, Ethnics 
SUBJECT: KNU COMING TO TOWN? 
 
Classified By: CDA, a.i. Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  After several days of confusion about who is 
coming and when, local contacts reported today, Thursday Jan 
15, that a 21-strong KNU delegation led by Gen. Bo Mya has 
arrived from Bangkok.  While here, the KNU will reportedly 
only discuss a cease-fire and Karen autonomy, not the 
national convention.  Some observers think a cease-fire 
agreement is possible.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  According to Prof. Saw Simon Tha, a leader of the 
Karen community in Rangoon, Karen National Union (KNU) leader 
General Bo Mya arrived in Rangoon today at the head of a 
21-person delegation to discuss terms with Prime Minister 
General Khin Nyunt for a KNU-SPDC cease-fire.  The KNU 
delegation is here because of Thai PM Thaksin's initiative to 
resolve regional conflicts and push forward with regional 
economic development, according to Professor Tha.  Gen Bo Mya 
is reportedly accompanied by six KNU Central Executive 
Committee members. 
 
3.  (C) According to Professor Simon Tha, who led two 
delegations of Karen to Mae Sot in late November and again in 
late December to speak to the KNU leadership on behalf of the 
Karens in Rangoon, Bo Mya may have the authority to sign a 
cease fire with the SPDC while on this trip.  Prof. Tha said 
he was optimistic, and feels it likely a cease-fire will be 
signed.  However, Bo Mya will only discuss a cease-fire and 
steps required for Karen autonomy within a federal union. 
The KNU is seeking a deal from the SPDC similar to what the 
Wa have where they keep their own arms, run their own police 
and jails, and manage their own regional economic and 
cultural development programs with Rangoon handling national 
defense and foreign policy.  Though PM Khin Nyunt has told 
Prof. Tha that all ethnic groups, cease-fire or not, will be 
able to come to the National Convention, the KNU will 
reportedly not discuss joining the national convention on 
this visit. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT: According to other sources, the SPDC is now 
planning January 16-18 for its three-day quarterly general 
meeting with SPDC members, regional commanders, the cabinet, 
and light infantry division commanders.  This may indicate 
the SPDC didn't hold the meeting in Dec 03 due to 
expectations of KNU to reach a cease-fire agreement with the 
KNU shortly before the New Year. 
McMullen