US embassy cable - 04HARARE84

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000084 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, DRL, AND IO, PASS TO USAID AND NSC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UN CONSIDERING ZIMBABWE'S REQUEST FOR ELECTION 
ASSISTANCE 
 
REF: A. (A) HARARE 41 
 
     B. (B) HARARE 47 
 
Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for reasons 1.5B and D 
 
 GOZ request for UN Election Assistance 
---------------------------------------- 
 
1. (C) UN Resrep Victor Angelo told us over lunch Jan 14 that 
in response to a written, formal GOZ request for UN 
assistance in organizing the 2005 parliamentary elections, 
the UN Mission in Zimbabwe has engaged in a series of 
consultations with GOZ officials and the opposition MDC. 
Angelo said the UN made clear that it would only consider 
providing election assistance if the election process were 
organized in a free and fair manner and if environmental 
impediments to a free election such as the Public Order and 
Security Act and the misnamed Access to Information and 
Privacy Act were repealed. Angelo said that key GOZ officials 
such as Justice Minister Chinamasa and the MDC were united in 
calling for UN supervision of the election process.  He said 
that only election registrar Mudede had argued that the GOZ 
should run elections in the usual way (biased and under his 
control) with only financial assistance from the UN.  Angelo 
said noone had yet suggested that the UN should actually 
conduct the elections, but there was virtual consensus among 
the major parties for a major UN supervisory role in 
elections. The MDC had earlier favored elections in 2004, but 
now has come to accept a March 2005 election date as most 
practical.  The UN would also be consulting with South Africa 
because of its role in brokering dialogue among the political 
parties. The UN was not certain whether elections should be 
held after or before implementation of constitutional reforms 
discussed in private talks between ZANU and MDC.  The 
Ambassador pointed out that elections held under the existing 
constitution would continue to give the executive all the 
power to rule arbitrarily before and after elections. Angelo 
maintained a skeptical attitude toward the Mugabe regime's 
willingness to hold a free and fair election, but believed 
the UN should deepen its engagement with the GOZ, the MDC and 
civil society to help define the steps that must be taken in 
what timeframe in order to have an election in which the UN 
would assist and the international community would regard as 
free and fair.  Angelo believed that most GOZ interlocutors, 
including Chinamasa, recognized that only a profoundly 
different type of election would pass international muster. 
He added that Chinamasa was convinced that ZANU-PF would win 
such an election easily. 
 
2. (C) Angelo was requesting that the UNDPA Election Unit 
send out a small team in early February to engage more 
specifically with the GOZ, the MDC and civil society, lay 
down markers of what steps would be necessary and then return 
to NY without making a commitment to monitor or assist in 
elections pending further clear commitment by the GOZ to 
conduct free and fair elections and repeal repressive 
legislation to create an enabling environment for elections. 
Angelo said there was some reluctance in UNDPA to send the 
mission out of concern that the GOZ was not serious about 
holding free elections and might only be seeking to 
manipulate the UN.  Angelo asked for US support with UNDPA 
for the election sounding mission to be undertaken with all 
appropriate caveats that the UN's eventual willingness to 
assist would depend on a firm conviction that the GOZ was 
willing to cooperate in holding a free election. 
 
Other Political Developments 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Angelo said he had been visited this week by the 
Namibian Ambassador who said that his President had recently 
decided to engage in pressing his longtime ally Mugabe to 
resolve the political crisis.  Perhaps concerned by 
Zimbabwe's withdrawal from the Commonwealth, President Nujoma 
had asked his Ambassador to report personally to him this 
week on where the South Africans and the UN were so that 
Nujoma could weigh in appropriately with Mugabe in favor of a 
rapid resolution of Zimbabwe's political crisis.  The 
Namibians would reportedly press for immediate commencement 
of formal ZANU-MDC dialogue in order to reach agreement in 
the critical six months ahead. (We know from our own contacts 
with the Namibians and the MDC that Namibia has in recent 
months been pressing the MDC to visit Namibia in order to 
brief GON officials.) 
 
4. (C) Angelo said that recent UN meetings with Tanzanian 
authorities, including a SYG meeting with President Mkapa, 
had been far less encouraging with the Tanzanians merely 
repeating GOZ talking points about Western sanctions and 
opposition to land reform being responsible for all 
Zimbabwe's problems. 
 
5. (C) Angelo also passed along a "credible" report that 
President Mugabe had in recent days sent President Mbeki a 
message at wide variance with what he told President Mbeki in 
December(ref a); i.e. that Mugabe upon reflection had decided 
it would be better for him to stay on as a non-executive 
president rather than to leave in 2005.  Angelo had no 
information on how the South Africans would react to such a 
message. 
 
6.  (C) Angelo also said that following the Reserve Bank 
Governor Gideon Gono's inaugural address advocating GOZ 
reengagement with the international community, including the 
Bretton Woods Institutions, Information Minister Jonathan 
Moyo told Angelo that this policy of reengagement had been 
approved by the entire Cabinet.  Angelo said he replied that 
reengagement depended on concrete GOZ actions. 
 
7. (C) Comment and Recommendation: While we are as skeptical 
as anyone of Mugabe's intent to permit free and fair 
elections, we do believe it useful for the UN elections team 
to visit in the near term to help lay out the steps necessary 
to create appropriate election conditions. We note that, as 
reported ref B, the MDC favors early UN engagement on 
defining the conditions and steps necessary for free and fair 
elections . Such a UN visit would help build pressure for 
creating a level playing field and improving the environment 
for elections sooner rather than later. We urge that USUN be 
instructed to convey our support for an exploratory UN 
election mission to UNDPA. 
 
 
SULLIVAN