US embassy cable - 00HARARE6082

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006082 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: PROCESS TO IMPEACH ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT BEGINS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
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REFS:  A) HARARE 5951, B) HARARE 5692 (NOTAL) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE OPPOSITION MDC TABLED A MOTION IN 
PARLIAMENT OCTOBER 25 THAT BEGINS THE PROCESS FOR 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S IMPEACHMENT.  THE DOCUMENT CITED IN 
DETAIL "VIOLATIONS OF THE CONSTITUTION" AND "GROSS 
MISCONDUCT" RELATED TO THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE, AMONG 
OTHER THINGS, AS THE GROUNDS FOR IMPEACHMENT.  IN 
RESPONSE, MUGABE ISSUED A STATEMENT SAYING THAT HIS 
GOVERNMENT'S RECONCILIATION POLICY WITH WHITES IS IN 
JEOPARDY AND COULD BE REVOKED.  MUGABE ALSO THREATENED 
TO ARREST WHITE MDC MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT AND PUT ON 
TRIAL IAN SMITH AND OTHER LEADERS OF THE WHITE RHODESIAN 
REGIME FOR WAR CRIMES.  THERE HAS BEEN NO DISCERNIBLE 
PUBLIC REACTION TO THESE EVENTS IN THE FORM OF PROTESTS 
OR CELEBRATIONS.  IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE MDC IS DUE 
TO TABLE A SECOND MOTION THAT WOULD ESTABLISH THE 
PROCEDURE FOR IMPEACHMENT, WHICH IS NOT CLEARLY 
STIPULATED IN THE CONSTITUTION.  THE IMPEACHMENT 
MEASURES RAISE THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL TENSION ANOTHER 
NOTCH AND SET THE STAGE FOR A FINAL SHOWDOWN BETWEEN 
MUGABE AND THE OPPOSITION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) GIBSON SIBANDA, MDC VICE-PRESIDENT AND MP FOR 
THE NKULUMANE SECTION OF BULAWAYO, INTRODUCED IN 
PARLIAMENT OCTOBER 25 A MOTION THAT SEEKS TO INVESTIGATE 
THE GROUNDS FOR THE IMPEACHMENT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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THE MDC PRESENTED THE DOCUMENT ALONG WITH THE SIGNATURES 
OF 56 MDC PARLIAMENTARIANS, THEREBY OBVIATING THE NEED 
FOR A FLOOR VOTE (ACCORDING TO THE CONSTITUTION, 51 
VOTES, OR MORE THAN ONE-THIRD OF PARLIAMENT, ARE 
REQUIRED TO BEGIN IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS).  ACCORDING 
TO EDDIE CROSS, THE MDC'S SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC 
AFFAIRS, THE FLOOR ERUPTED INTO AN UPROAR WHEN SPEAKER 
MNANGAGWA ACCEPTED THE PETITION AND PROMISED TO "STUDY 
ITS CONTENTS."  ACCORDING TO ONE OUR PRESS CONTACTS, 
MNANGAGWA ANNOUNCED IN PARLIAMENT OCTOBER 26 THAT HE 
WOULD FORM AN IMPEACHMENT COMMITTEE NEXT WEEK TO 
INVESTIGATE THE CHARGES.  TENDAI BITI, MDC MP FOR HARARE 
EAST, HINTED TO US THAT IF MNANGAGWA OBSTRUCTS THE 
OPERATION OF THE COMMITTEE, THE MDC WILL TAKE HIM TO 
COURT. 
 
3.  (U) DESPITE MNANGAGWA'S WARNING NOT TO PUBLISH THE 
CONTENTS OF THE MOTION, ITS DETAILS APPEARED IN OCTOBER 
26'S EDITION OF THE "DAILY NEWS."  THE MOTION STIPULATES 
THAT MUGABE HAS WILLFULLY VIOLATED THE CONSTITUTION BY 
FAILING TO UPHOLD THE LAWS OF ZIMBABWE AND HAS 
"DELIBERATELY, AND IN SOME CASES CALLOUSLY, ENCOURAGED, 
CONDONED, INCITED, AND SUPPORTED BREACHES OF THE LAW." 
IT CITES MUGABE'S FAILURE TO ENFORCE THE APRIL HIGH 
COURT RULING TO EXPEL FARM INVADERS, AS WELL 
COUNTERMANDING HIS MINISTERS' ORDERS TO THE POLICE TO 
UPHOLD THE COURT RULING.  THE DOCUMENT ALLEGES THAT 
MUGABE MASTERMINDED THE CAMPAIGN OF PRE-ELECTION 
VIOLENCE AND CITES HIS PUBLIC THREATS OF DEATH TO THOSE 
WHO WOULD OPPOSE HIM.  THE DOCUMENT STATES THAT SHOULD A 
COMMITTEE FIND THAT THESE ACTIONS DO NOT WARRANT A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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"WILLFUL VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTION," THEN MUGABE 
SHOULD BE IMPEACHED ON THE GROUNDS OF "GROSS MISCONDUCT" 
FOR ABUSING HIS POWER OF CLEMENCY (REFERRING TO HIS 
RECENT PARDON OF THE PERPETRATORS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE- 
-SEE REF B), FOR DEPLOYING TROOPS TO THE DRC, AND FOR 
CORRUPTION. 
 
4.  (U) PRESIDENT MUGABE'S REACTION WAS SWIFT AND 
BELLICOSE.  THE ZANU-PF YOUTH WING ASSEMBLED A GROUP OF 
ABOUT 200 DEMONSTRATORS IN FRONT OF PARLIAMENT LATE ON 
OCTOBER 25 TO DENOUNCE THE MDC.  IN ADDRESSING THE CROWD 
AFTER THE IMPEACHMENT MOTION WAS TABLED, MUGABE BLASTED 
ZIMBABWE'S WHITES AND THEIR WESTERN SUPPORTERS, SAYING 
THAT HE MAY REVOKE THE GOVERNMENT'S RECONCILIATION 
POLICY.  HE THREATENED TO PUT ON TRIAL IAN SMITH AND 
OTHER WHITES FOR GENOCIDE AND OTHER WAR CRIMES COMMITTED 
DURING THE LIBERATION WAR STRUGGLE OF THE 1960S AND 
1970S.  MUGABE FURTHER STATED THAT WHITES, SUCH AS MPS 
DAVID COLTART AND MICHAEL AURET, WOULD "NOT BE FREE FROM 
ARREST."  HE ALSO BLAMED THE BRITISH AND AMERICANS FOR 
HELPING THEIR WHITE FRIENDS TO DERAIL LAND REFORM AND 
FOR TRYING TO "RE-COLONIZE" ZIMBABWE. 
 
5.  (C) BITI TOLD US OCTOBER 26 THAT THE MDC WILL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1838 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /006W 
                  ------------------972747  261439Z /38 
O 261438Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7460 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006082 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: PROCESS TO IMPEACH ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT BEGINS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06082  02 OF 02  261439Z 
 
APPROACH LEADER OF THE HOUSE PATRICK CHINAMASA TO SEE IF 
THE ZANU-PF SIDE WILL WORK WITH THE MDC IN ESTABLISHING 
THE PROCEDURE FOR IMPEACHMENT BEHIND THE SCENES.  (THE 
PROCEDURE IS NOT SPELLED OUT IN DETAIL IN THE 
CONSTITUTION.)  IF THEY WILL NOT AGREE, THEN THE MDC 
WILL TABLE A SECOND MOTION ON OCTOBER 31 ASKING THE 
STANDING RULES COMMITTEE FOR THE FOLLOWING:  1) AN 
IMPEACHMENT COMMITTEE COMPRISED OF HOUSE MEMBERS IN 
PROPORTION TO THE NUMBER OF EACH PARTY'S ELECTED SEATS, 
2) THAT THE COMMITTEE THAT OPERATES IN A QUASI-JUDICIAL 
MANNER BY CALLING WITNESSES TO A PUBLIC HEARING, 3) THAT 
THE COMMITTEE RELEASE A REPORT OF ITS FINDINGS BY 
DECEMBER 31, 2000 AND THAT THE FINDINGS BE OPENED UP FOR 
DEBATE TO THE FULL HOUSE, AND 4) THAT THE VOTE OF 
IMPEACHMENT BE CARRIED OUT BY SECRET BALLOT RATHER THAN 
BY DIVISION (WHERE MPS STAND AND MOVE TO THE "YEA" OR 
"NAY" SIDE OF THE CHAMBER). 
 
6.  (C) SHOULD AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE REACH THE FLOOR AND 
PASS WITH A MINIMUM OF 100 VOTES, MUGABE WOULD 
IMMEDIATELY CEASE TO HOLD OFFICE.  THE SENIOR VICE- 
PRESIDENT (SIMON MUZENDA) WOULD BECOME ACTING PRESIDENT 
UNTIL A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COULD BE HELD WITHIN 90 
DAYS.  BITI SAID THAT HE DOES NOT EXPECT MANY ZANU-PF 
MPS TO CROSS THE AISLE AND VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT (AT 
LEAST 43 WOULD HAVE TO DO SO FOR THE MEASURE TO PASS) 
BECAUSE MUGABE MOST LIKELY ISSUED VEILED THREATS AT HIS 
CAUCUS WITH THEM OCTOBER 25.  THE MDC DOES NOT 
REALISTICALLY EXPECT PARLIAMENT TO REMOVE MUGABE FROM 
OFFICE, BITI REITERATED, BUT ITS OBJECTIVES IN PURSUING 
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IMPEACHMENT ARE TO BRING PRESSURE AGAINST MUGABE TO 
RESIGN, TO EXPOSE HIS MISDEEDS OF THE LAST YEAR, AND TO 
FORMALLY SPELL OUT THE PROCEDURE FOR PRESIDENTIAL 
IMPEACHMENT.  EDDIE CROSS, ONE OF THE MDC'S MORE RADICAL 
MEMBERS, TOLD US THAT IF MUGABE DOES NOT AGREE TO STEP 
DOWN BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND CALL NEW ELECTIONS, THE 
MDC WILL ORGANIZE MASS PROTESTS TO FORCE HIM OUT. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN NO DISCERNIBLE 
PUBLIC REACTION TO THESE EVENTS IN THE FORM OF PROTESTS 
OR CELEBRATIONS, THE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE IN HARARE HAS 
BECOME MORE TENSE.  PERHAPS AGAINST THE WISHES OF ITS 
MORE MODERATE MEMBERS, THE MDC APPEARS TO BE 
ACCELERATING TO ITS END-GAME OF FORCING MUGABE FROM 
OFFICE.  BY PURSUING IMPEACHMENT NOW, IT LEAVES ITSELF 
FEW ALTERNATIVES TO MASS ACTION IF IT WISHES TO HOLD ON 
TO ITS CREDIBILITY BEFORE THE SCHEDULED 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  IT RISKS RAISING PUBLIC 
EXPECTATIONS TO A DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVEL WHEN MUGABE 
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF RELINQUISHING POWER.  MUGABE'S PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXTREME AS HE 
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY, 
AND CONVEY AN AIR OF DESPERATION.  IT WOULD NOT BE VERY 
PRACTICAL FOR MUGABE TO ABROGATE THE 1979 AMNESTY 
AGREEMENT THAT PARDONED BOTH SIDES, HIMSELF INCLUDED, OF 
CRIMES COMMITTED IN THE LIBERATION WAR STRUGGLE.  IT 
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR MUGABE IS WILLING TO GO TO HOLD 
ONTO POWER, BUT THE LAST TWO MONTHS OF THIS YEAR COULD 
POTENTIALLY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING 
ZIMBABWE'S FUTURE. 
 
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MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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