US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA58

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, EAID, GT 
SUBJECT: NEW GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTY AGREE ON 
GOVERNABILITY PACT 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The incoming GANA government reached 
agreement on January 12 with the UNE and PAN delegations in 
Congress to elect the congressional leadership board and to 
support a progressive legislative agenda.  The agreement 
gives the center-left UNE party of Alvaro Colom the 
Presidency of Congress and divides the major committees 
evenly between GANA and UNE.  After negotiations between GANA 
and UNE broke down on January 11, and at the request of Vice 
President-elect Eduardo Stein, the Ambassador met with UNE 
leader Colom early on January 12 to encourage him to find a 
compromise.  The agreement that was reached excludes the FRG 
from the Congressional leadership slate (though they will be 
offered the chairmanship of some commissions) and makes it 
possible for the Berger Government to begin its mandate 
without a hostile legislature.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) Late in the evening of January 12, negotiators for 
GANA reached agreement with the newly-elected Congressional 
leaders for the center-left UNE party and center-right PAN to 
form a loose legislative coalition for the purposes of 
electing the new Congressional leadership slate and 
supporting a legislative agenda that includes Peace Accord 
implementation and fiscal reform.  Between them, the three 
parties have close to a hundred votes (out of 158), ensuring 
that they can elect the leadership slate at the inaugural 
session on January 14.  Under the terms of the agreement, UNE 
(which came in second in the December 28 presidential runoff 
election) will get the positions of President, First Vice 
President and First Secretary of Congress (the officer who 
manages the Congressional budget -- and patronage), while 
Gana will get the next tier of positions (Note: UNE will 
share its positions with the PAN. End note).  GANA will get 
the chairmanship of the Budget Committee, and UNE/PAN will 
get the Oversight Committee.  GANA and UNE/PAN will evenly 
split fourteen more committees, and the remaining committees 
will be divided between the FRG and the small parties.  In 
principle, UNE/PAN are committed to support GANA for the 
presidency of Congress in 2005.  The agreement also commits 
the parties to supporting a legislative agenda covering 
social and economic policy. 
 
3. (C) GANA and UNE had been negotiating the governability 
pact long before the December 28 runoff elections, and had 
reached basic agreement on the outlines.  Ill will following 
a bruising campaign, however, led Colom to renege on the 
original commitment and insist on new concessions that would 
have virtually emasculated GANA's legislative power.  At the 
request of Vice President-elect Eduardo Stein, the Ambassador 
met on January 12 with UNE Secretary General Colom to hear 
his views on the impasse and to urge Colom to not break off 
the negotiations with GANA in the pursuit of an agreement 
that would ensure governability.  Colom acknowledged that UNE 
would ultimately have to reach agreement with GANA, as he 
would not contemplate the only alternative -- negotiating 
with the FRG.  Colom said that UNE's decision to vote with 
the FRG in the closing legislative session (on an important 
bill limiting the new government's budgetary flexibility) was 
taken solely to show GANA that it had to negotiate seriously 
with UNE, but that UNE did not want to form an unholy 
alliance with the FRG. 
 
4. (C) GANA leaders told us early on January 12 that Oscar 
Berger had responded to Colom's threats to withdraw from the 
governability pact by asking his negotiators to not break off 
talks with UNE.  He viewed an agreement with UNE (and the 
PAN) as critical, despite their demands for new concessions. 
GANA has no illusions that UNE will be a faithful partner in 
the Congress over the long run, but the governability pact 
will keep the opposition parties from banding together during 
this first year to exclude GANA from the Congressional 
leadership and the key Budget Committee.  Meanwhile, GANA is 
actively (if discreetly) trying to recruit defectors from all 
the parties in Congress -- a time-honored, if unsavory, 
tradition in Guatemala.  GANA currently has 52 legislators 
(out of 158), and there are reports that up to 22 UNE 
legislators (out of 33 elected for UNE) want to join.  UNE 
leaders accuse GANA of buying off their congressmen with cash 
payments.  There are reports of expected defections from PAN, 
the FRG and the Partido Unionista as well. 
 
5. (C) Comment: The governability pact, while not a guarantee 
of blanket legislative support for the Executive, was a major 
coup for Berger.  The alternative -- a pact between UNE and 
the FRG -- would have given full control of Congress to 
Berger's enemies.  Berger's instinct to seek a compromise 
(opposed to the preference of some of his advisors to 
confront) was critical to securing this agreement.  Berger 
still has an uphill battle to build a legislative majority 
loyal to him, but the prospects are better with the FRG 
marginalized and several key legislative leadership positions 
in GANA's hands. 
HAMILTON