US embassy cable - 00HARARE5951

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005951 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: IMPEACHMENT OF MUGABE LOOMING 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 5829 
 
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CLASSIFIED CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) IN A MEETING OCTOBER 23, MDC MP FOR HARARE 
CENTRAL MICHAEL AURET INFORMED POLOFF THAT THE MDC PLANS 
TO GIVE NOTICE OCTOBER 24 IN PARLIAMENT THAT IT WILL 
TABLE A MOTION FOR THE IMPEACHMENT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE 
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  AURET CLAIMED THAT THE MDC HAS 
COMPILED "OVERWHELMING" EVIDENCE THAT MUGABE DIRECTED 
THE CAMPAIGN OF MASS TERROR AGAINST FARMERS, THEIR 
WORKERS, AND OTHER OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS IN THE RUN-UP 
TO THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  THE MDC 
PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION WILL ATTEMPT TO GET THE MOTION 
ON A SECRET BALLOT SO THAT MPS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 
AISLE CAN VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE WITHOUT FEAR OF 
RETRIBUTION.  THE SPEAKER AND DEPUTY SPEAKER WERE 
ELECTED BY SECRET BALLOT, AURET SAID, AND HE HOPED THAT 
THE SAME COULD BE DONE WITH THE IMPEACHMENT MEASURE.  IF 
AT LEAST 50 MPS VOTE IN FAVOR, THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES 
THAT A SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE BE ESTABLISHED TO 
DETERMINE WHETHER THE GROUNDS FOR IMPEACHMENT EXIST.  A 
SEPARATE VOTE OF TWO-THIRDS OF PARLIAMENT (100 VOTES) 
WOULD THEN BE REQUIRED TO IMPEACH MUGABE.  THERE ARE NOT 
ENOUGH MPS WILLING TO CROSS THE AISLE TO IMPEACH MUGABE, 
BUT IF EVEN A FEW ZANU-PF MPS VOTED WITH THE MDC ON THIS 
ISSUE, IT WOULD BE A MAJOR BLOW TO THE PRESIDENT, AURET 
OPINED. 
 
2.  (C) MDC MP TENDAI BITI TOLD USAIDOFFS THAT THE MDC 
PLANS TO TABLE A SECOND MOTION THAT WOULD CLARIFY THE 
STANDING RULES ON IMPEACHMENT PROCEDURE, WHICH IS NOT 
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SPELLED OUT IN DETAIL IN THE CONSTITUTION.  ACCORDING TO 
BITI, THE MDC IS SEEKING AN IMPEACHMENT COMMITTEE 
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NUMBER OF SEATS IT HAS IN 
PARLIAMENT AND ONE THAT CAN HOLD HEARINGS OPEN TO THE 
PUBLIC.  CURRENTLY, THE SPEAKER HAS THE POWER TO APPOINT 
ALL THE SEATS ON THE COMMITTEE, AND HE COULD ALSO SHELVE 
THE ISSUE WITHOUT DEBATE.  THE MDC DOES NOT EXPECT TO 
ACTUALLY REMOVE MUGABE FROM OFFICE THIS WAY, BUT IT 
HOPES TO MAKE THE PROCESS MORE DEMOCRATIC, SAYS BITI. 
WELSHMAN NCUBE, THE MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL, TOLD 
USAIDOFFS THAT HE DOES NOT BELIEVE MUGABE WOULD DISSOLVE 
PARLIAMENT TO HEAD OFF IMPEACHMENT.  SUCH A MOVE WOULD 
REQUIRE NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO BE HELD WITHIN 90 
DAYS, AND ZANU-PF IS MORE AFRAID OF AN ELECTION DEFEAT 
NOW THAN IT WAS IN JUNE, ACCORDING TO NCUBE.  INSTEAD, 
THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO WAS DUE TO HAVE MET THIS PAST 
WEEKEND TO DEBATE THE DECLARATION OF A STATE OF 
EMERGENCY TO SHORT-CIRCUIT THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT BEFORE 
IT REACHES THE FLOOR OF PARLIAMENT NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING 
TO NCUBE. (COMMENT: WE HAVE NOT HEARD WHETHER THIS 
MEETING IN FACT TOOK PLACE. END COMMENT.) 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT: NCUBE'S REMARKS MAKE SENSE TO A POINT: 
MUGABE IS MORE LIKELY TO DECLARE MARTIAL LAW BEFORE HE 
DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT TO STAVE OFF HIS IMPEACHMENT.  (A 
STATE OF EMERGENCY WOULD REQUIRE PARLIAMENT'S APPROVAL, 
WHEREAS MARTIAL LAW WOULD NOT.)  HOWEVER, IT IS 
DEBATABLE WHETHER MUGABE WOULD GO TO SUCH LENGTHS BEFORE 
PARLIAMENT ACTS ON A MEASURE THAT HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF 
SUCCESS.  ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS POSSIBLE TO IMAGINE A 
SCENARIO IN WHICH A LARGE NUMBER OF ZANU-PF "YOUNG 
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TURKS" (SEE REFTEL) VOTE FOR THE IMPEACHMENT MEASURE 
NEXT WEEK ON A SECRET BALLOT, AND THE MDC FOLLOWS 
THROUGH ON ITS MASS ACTION PLANS AT THE SAME TIME. 
ALTHOUGH WE JUDGE THE PROBABLITY OF IT COMING OFF AS 
LOW, THIS SITUATION COULD MAKE MUGABE FEEL THREATENED 
ENOUGH TO IMPOSE MARTIAL LAW.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
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