US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA34

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000034 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: Presidential Election Preview 
 
1. Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
2. (SBU) Summary.  Presidential elections will be held April 
3, with a runoff on April 17 between the two leading 
candidates if needed.  Although the official campaign is the 
two-week period before elections, several candidates are 
already posting billboards and distributing literature with 
general messages.  Key individuals have yet to declare their 
candidacy, but now that the election has been formally 
announced, they have just 21 days to act.  End summary. 
 
What's at Stake 
--------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Slovakia's President, as head of state, has 
significant diplomatic responsibilities.  His opinion, 
expressed through public speeches and interactions with 
other politicians, carries significant weight.  He also 
appoints and recalls government officials approved by 
Parliament.  He can also veto laws, but the veto is 
relatively easily to overcome with 76 members (50 percent 
plus one) of Parliament.  Thus, his actual political power 
is quite limited.  This election will not necessarily serve 
as a midterm barometer of attitudes toward Parliament or the 
ruling coalition, as not all parties have presidential 
candidates, and the election is much more about individual 
personalities than about party politics. 
 
The Rules of the Game 
--------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Speaker of Parliament Pavol Hrusovsky made the 
official announcement of presidential elections on January 
8.  Individuals now have to announce their candidacy within 
21 days.  Official campaigns may only take place in the two 
weeks prior to the election.  Elections will be held April 
3, with a runoff on April 17 if needed.  A runoff occurs 
when no presidential candidate gains a majority of the 
votes.  Comment: With a crowded field, we fully expect there 
will be a second round. 
 
5. (U) In order to be eligible to run, candidates must 
collect either the support of 15 MPs or 15,000 voters' 
signatures.  About a dozen individuals have met the 
requirements well in advance.  Many of these have 
essentially started campaigning, giving speeches and, in the 
case of Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan and ANO candidate 
Lubomir Roman, posting billboards with general messages like 
"Happy New Year." 
 
Leading Contenders. and Non-Contenders 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) President Schuster's term ends June 15.  His 
popularity has fallen significantly over the nearly four 
years since his election.  He has publicly stated that 
family will be the deciding factor in whether he runs for 
reelection, and his wife strongly prefers he not do so. 
However, he told emboff January 10 he would run, and his 
most recent public speeches (December 5 State of the Nation 
and New Year's Day) took a populist stance that would be a 
strong campaign platform. 
 
7. (SBU) HZDS Chairman Vladimir Meciar, another popular 
would-be candidate, has also not announced whether he will 
run.  Meciar has been very cagey in the press when 
discussing his intentions.  Meciar probably is struggling to 
balance his desire to be back in the national spotlight with 
the strong possibility that he would be defeated for a 
second time.  In the run-up to Parliamentary elections in 
September 2002, Meciar was very sensitive to questions about 
his finances and past actions as Prime Minister, even 
punching a reporter on television who asked about how he 
paid for Villa Elektra (his home that was refurbished at a 
cost far exceeding what he could have afforded on a state 
salary).  Meciar may be hesitant to come under such scrutiny 
again.  There is no other clear leader within HZDS who could 
be a strong candidate.  If Meciar does not run, support may 
fall to Ivan Gasparovic of the breakaway HZD party. 
Gasparovic has the support of other former HZDS members now 
in the "People's Union" party led by Vojtech Tkac, and of 
the Jan Slota branch of the ultra-nationalist Slovak 
National Party. 
 
8. (U) Kukan, the official SDKU candidate, was the front- 
runner in the first poll in early December and is now 
slightly behind Meciar.  His supporters have been 
distributing door hangers, sponsoring billboards, holding 
numerous functions for supporters and publishing a large 
glossy biographical book about himself - all in general 
terms so as to avoid being called "campaigning." 
 
9. (SBU) Former Ambassador to the U.S. Martin Butora, while 
 
running as an independent candidate, may peel off votes from 
SDKU's dwindling pool of center-right voters, as would not- 
yet-candidate SDKU breakaway leader and Free Forum founder 
Ivan Simko. 
 
Preliminary Polls 
----------------- 
 
10. (U) Following is a list of both official and unannounced 
candidates and party affiliations along with their latest 
polling results from the MVK agency: 
-- Vladimir Meciar (HZDS), 20.1 percent 
-- Eduard Kukan (SDKU), 19.3 percent 
-- Ivan Gasparovic (HZD), 15.6 percent 
-- Rudolf Schuster (President), 10.3 percent 
-- Martin Butora (no party affiliation, 15,000 signature 
requirement in lieu of party support), 6.9 percent 
-- Lubomir Roman (ANO), 6.3 percent 
-- Frantisek Miklosko (KDH), 4.2 percent 
Announced candidates Jan Kralik of SDL; Jozef Prokes of 
SNS2; former State Secretary of Foreign Affairs under Meciar 
Jozef Sestak; Martin Mayor Stanislav Bernat; Roma and NGO- 
supported candidate Mikulas Horvath; artist Elena 
Schoppertova; German resident of Slovak origin Vojtech 
Czobor; Swiss resident Julius Kubik; and former deputy Prime 
Minister Jozef Kalman, did not receive statistically 
significant support. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11. (SBU) Comment. Schuster and Meciar are the wild cards at 
present.  Results may be significantly different if neither 
throws his hat into the ring.  Center-right foes of Meciar 
almost hope he runs, as he would almost certainly lose in a 
second round.  Schuster would likely beat Meciar in a runoff 
because people know what to expect from Schuster both 
domestically and in the foreign policy arena.  If Meciar 
doesn't run, Gasparovic and the nationalist extremists could 
see their numbers soar. 
 
THAYER 
 
 
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