US embassy cable - 00HARARE5829

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR 
CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING. 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05829  01 OF 03  131101Z 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: POLITICAL PUNDITS AND WOULD-BE 
REFORMERS ARE AGAIN RAISING THEIR HOPES THAT THE ZANU-PF 
EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS DUE TO BE HELD BY THE END OF THE 
YEAR WILL RESULT IN THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A SUCCESSOR TO 
MUGABE AND A REJUVENATION OF THE PARTY.  THE POPULATION 
AT LARGE, VICTIMIZED BY THE PARTY'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF 
TERROR AND ECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT, IS INCREASINGLY EAGER 
FOR A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP.  ZANU-PF'S LEADERSHIP, 
HOWEVER, DOES NOT SEE, OR CHOOSES TO IGNORE, THE WRITING 
ON THE WALL, AND IS LIKELY TO SQUELCH ANY ATTEMPTS BY 
THE PARTY'S "YOUNG TURKS" TO ASSUME A GREATER ROLE IN 
RUNNING THE COUNTRY.  THE PARTY LEADERSHIP IS REDOUBLING 
ITS EFFORTS TO CLAMP DOWN ON DISSENT AND IS FURTHER 
ATTEMPTING TO CONCENTRATE POWER IN THE HANDS OF THE 
PRESIDENT WHILE THE DEMAND FOR GREATER PLURALITY 
INCREASES.  THIS YEAR'S PARTY CONGRESS IS PROBABLY THE 
LAST GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MANAGEABLE CHANGE WITHIN ZANU- 
PF, AND, ONCE MISSED, WILL COME BACK TO HAUNT THE PARTY 
MANY-FOLD IN 2002'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ACCORDING TO RECENT PRESS ARTICLES, THE 
SUCCESSION ISSUE IS LIKELY TO COME UP AGAIN AT THIS 
YEAR'S EXTRAORDINARY PARTY CONGRESS, DUE TO BE HELD BY 
THE END OF THE YEAR (A DATE HAS NOT BEEN SET).  ON 
SEPTEMBER 29, ZANU-PF'S SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION 
DIDYMUS MUTASA ANNOUNCED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD BE 
THE PARTY'S NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2002.  THE DECISION 
WAS REACHED AT A RECENT CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING, 
APPARENTLY WITHOUT MUCH DEBATE.  THE ANNOUNCEMENT SET 
OFF A STIR WITHIN THE PARTY, AND THE LEADERSHIP HAS 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  05829  01 OF 03  131101Z 
SINCE BACKPEDALED, SAYING THAT THE PARTY'S NOMINEE WOULD 
BE DETERMINED AT THE CONGRESS.  OUR PARTY CONTACTS HAVE 
CHARACTERIZED THE EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS AS A 
CONTINUATION OF "UNFINISHED BUSINESS" FROM LAST 
DECEMBER'S FIVE-YEAR CONGRESS.  MICHAEL MATAURE, A 
FORMER ZANU-PF MP FROM MANICALAND, TOLD US THAT THE 
SPECIAL CONGRESS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE HELD IN MARCH OR 
APRIL, BUT BECAUSE OF THE REFERENDUM DEFEAT IN FEBRUARY, 
IT WAS POSTPONED.  MATAURE WENT SO FAR AS TO SAY THAT 
MUGABE HAD BEEN READY TO DISCUSS FINDING A SUCCESSOR AT 
THAT CONGRESS, BUT INSTEAD DUG IN HIS HEELS WHEN IT 
BECAME APPARENT THAT THE PARTY WAS LOSING POPULAR 
SUPPORT AND AND THE MEMBERSHIP WANTED HIM TO GO.  NOW, 
MUGABE IS UNLIKELY TO GIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO 
ANOINTING A SUCCESSOR, BELIEVING THAT HE IS THE ONLY 
FIGURE WHO CAN HOLD THE PARTY, AND THE COUNTRY, 
TOGETHER, MATAURE OPINED. 
 
3.  SINCE THE PARTY'S BACKPEDALING ON MUGABE'S 
"NOMINATION," A CHORUS OF POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS HAVE 
CHIMED IN ON THEIR WILLINGNESS TO ASSUME THE REIGNS 
SHOULD MUGABE DECLINE TO RUN AGAIN.  THE 78-YEAR-OLD 
VICE-PRESIDENT SIMON MUZENDA, WHO HAS BEEN OUT OF THE 
LIMELIGHT FOR SOME TIME, IS MAKING IT KNOWN WITHIN PARTY 
CIRCLES THAT HE WISHES TO SUCCEED MUGABE SHOULD HE 
DECIDE TO RETIRE, ACCORDING TO THE "FINANCIAL GAZETTE." 
OTHER PARTY STALWARTS ARE QUIETLY LOBBYING FOR 
CONSIDERATION.  IDEN WETHERELL, DEPUTY EDITOR OF THE 
"ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT," TOLD US THAT HE DOESN'T SEE 
ANYONE IN THE PARTY WITH THE STATURE OR BACKING TO 
CHALLENGE MUGABE FOR THE PRESIDENCY, OR EVEN FORM A 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  05829  01 OF 03  131101Z 
LASTING GOVERNMENT SHOULD MUGABE STEP DOWN.  MOST OF THE 
OLD GUARD ARE COMPLETELY BEHOLDEN TO THE PRESIDENT AND 
LACK THE POLITICAL WHEREWITHAL NEEDED TO CONTROL THE 
FRACTIOUS RULING PARTY.  FURTHERMORE, THEY ARE 
"CONTAMINATED" BY THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH MUGABE, MAKING 
ANY ONE OF THEM UNPALATABLE TO THE PUBLIC.  ONE-TIME 
POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON 
MNANGAGWA AND MINES AND ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY 
SEKERAMAYI ARE OUT OF THE RUNNING DUE TO THEIR ELECTORAL 
SETBACKS, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL.  FORMER AGRICULTURE 
MINISTER KUMBIRAI KANGAI AND FORMER HOME AFFAIRS 
MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA ARE COMPLETELY WASHED UP 
POLITICALLY, WETHERELL SAID.  MASVINGO PARTY "SUPREMO" 
EDDISON ZVOBGO FANCIES HIMSELF AS A PRESIDENTIAL 
CANDIDATE, BUT HIS DECLINING HEALTH REMOVES HIM FROM 
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION, WETHERELL STATED.  HOME AFFAIRS 
MINISTER AND PARTY CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO IS A PARTY HACK 
WHO OBTAINED HIS POSITION ONLY BECAUSE OTHERS IN THE 
PARTY DID NOT WANT TO SEE MNANGAGWA ASSUME THE ZANU-PF 
CHAIRMANSHIP.  FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, WHO IS 
WIDELY TOUTED IN THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AS A POSSIBLE 
SUCCESSOR, LACKS THE CREDENTIALS AND POLITICAL SUPPORT 
TO SUCCEED MUGABE, WETHERELL OFFERED. 
 
4.  (C) THERE IS A WIDENING SPLIT IN ZANU-PF BETWEEN THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7415 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05829  02 OF 03  131101Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   ITC-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------913C9C  131101Z /38 
P 131101Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7356 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR 
CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL 
 
OLD GUARD (WITH LINKS TO THE LIBERATION WAR OF THE 
1970S) AND THE SO-CALLED "YOUNG TURKS."  WETHERELL DID 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  05829  02 OF 03  131101Z 
NOT DESCRIBE THE YOUNG TURKS AS A FACTION, BUT MORE AS A 
DIVERSE GROUPING OF YOUNG BUSINESSMEN AND INTELLECTUALS 
UNITED ONLY BY THEIR DESIRE TO KICK OUT THE OLD GUARD. 
THEY DOMINATE THE ZANU-PF DELEGATION IN PARLIAMENT, AND 
ARE LED BY CHEGUTU MP CHARLES NDLOVU, BUT HAVE NO 
POSITIONS IN CABINET AND VERY FEW SENIOR POSITIONS IN 
THE PARTY.  NDLOVU, WHO IS ALSO THE PARTY CHAIRMAN FOR 
MASHONALAND WEST, AND PADDY ZHANDA, PARTY CHAIRMAN FOR 
MASHONALAND EAST, WOULD APPEAR TO BE THEIR MOST SENIOR 
MEMBERS.  MAKONI AND INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO, OFTEN TOUTED AS REFORMERS, ARE 
NOT "YOUNG TURKS," WETHERELL SAID, BUT MERELY COMPETENT 
TECHNOCRATS BROUGHT IN TO PUT A GOOD FACE ON ECONOMIC 
RECOVERY ATTEMPTS.  MOYO IS NOT A MEMBER OF ZANU-PF, AND 
RECENTLY TOLD THE AMBASSADOR HE WOULD CONTINUE TO GUARD 
JEALOUSLY HIS POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE. 
 
5.  (C) MANY OF THE YOUNG TURKS ARE "JOHNNY-COME- 
LATELYS" TO THE PARTY WHO SAW AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET INTO 
GOVERNMENT BY TROUNCING UNPOPULAR PARTY HACKS IN THE 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL.  SOME OF 
THESE NEW MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CO-OPTED BY THE OLD 
GUARD.  NONETHELESS, THE YOUNG TURKS ARE THE PRIMARY 
SOURCE FOR CALLS TO REFORM THE PARTY'S TOP-DOWN 
STRUCTURE.  ZHANDA, A PROMINENT BUSINESSMAN IN 
MASHONALAND EAST, TOLD US THAT HE WOULD RATHER TRY TO 
CHANGE THE PARTY FROM WITHIN THAN FROM WITHOUT.  HE SAID 
HE HAS PERSONALLY TOLD MUGABE THAT CHANGE IS DESIRABLE 
AND INEVITABLE.  THE OCTOBER 6 "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" 
REPORTED THAT SHORTLY AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, 
JOHN NKOMO SET UP A CABINET-LEVEL TASK FORCE TO 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  05829  02 OF 03  131101Z 
RECOMMEND WAYS OF REVAMPING ZANU-PF.  THE 
PRESIDENTIALLY-APPOINTED POLITBURO, HOWEVER, DID NOT 
FIND THE RECOMMENDATIONS, WHICH INCLUDED RENAMING THE 
PARTY AND REFORMING ITS CONSTITUTION, AT ALL ACCEPTABLE. 
 
6.  (C) INSTEAD OF TAKING CALLS FOR CHANGE ON BOARD, THE 
PARTY LEADERSHIP IS REDOUBLING ITS EFFORTS TO CLAMP DOWN 
ON DISSENT BY TRYING TO REIMPOSE THE DISCIPLINE THAT HAS 
SLIPPED AWAY IN THE LAST FEW YEARS.  ONE OF MUGABE'S 
PRINCIPAL INSTRUMENTS FOR THIS PURPOSE IS NEW MINISTER 
OF STATE FOR INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY JONATHAN MOYO. 
ACCORDING TO WETHERELL, MOYO WELL MIRRORS MUGABE'S 
COMBATIVE STYLE AND CLOSELY REPRESENTS HIS THINKING ON 
MOST ISSUES.  MOYO IS RESENTED IN THE PARTY BECAUSE OF 
HIS RAPID RISE AND BECAUSE HE SERVES AS THE PRESIDENT'S 
POINT MAN ON THE CRITICAL ISSUES OF THE DAY.  MUGABE 
CIRCUMVENTS THE PARTY AND GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES BY 
HAVING MOYO ISSUE STATEMENTS THAT EFFECTIVELY 
COUNTERMAND DIRECTIVES FROM CABINET OFFICIALS, WETHERELL 
CONTINUED.  MOYO'S PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE CLOSING 
DOWN OF THE INDEPENDENT CAPITAL RADIO STATION HIGHLIGHTS 
HIS GROWING POWER.  THE CABINET, AND THE MINISTRIES IT 
REPRESENTS, IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT AS IT IS 
SIDELINED BY THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE.  THIS IS BECOMING 
ANOTHER SOURCE OF DISCORD WITHIN ZANU-PF. 
 
7.  (C) MOYO HAS BEEN INFORMALLY CHARGED WITH REIMPOSING 
DISCIPLINE ON WAYWARD PARTY OFFICIALS IN THE PROVINCES 
AS WELL.  THE OCTOBER 7 GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED "HERALD" 
PROMINENTLY REPORTED THAT THE ENTIRE ZANU-PF PROVINCIAL 
EXECUTIVE IN HARARE HAD BEEN SUSPENDED OVER INFIGHTING 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  05829  02 OF 03  131101Z 
AMONG ITS MEMBERS.  CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS THEN TOOK 
OVER THE OPERATION OF THE RULING PARTY IN HARARE.  THE 
ZANU-PF EXECUTIVE LED BY SHADRECK BETA IN MANICALAND WAS 
SUSPENDED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  MANICALAND HAS BEEN 
RACKED BY INTRA-PARTY SQUABBLING AND FEUDING FOR SEVERAL 
YEARS.  THE PARTY CHAIRS IN MASVINGO, MASHONALAND WEST, 
AND MIDLANDS ARE ALSO REPORTED TO BE HEADING FOR THE 
CHOPPING BLOCK.  MUGABE RECENTLY WARNED OF CLEANING OUT 
"DARK CHARACTERS" FROM THE PARTY WHO WERE MORE 
INTERESTED IN "MAKING WAR" ON THEIR FELLOW PARTY MEMBERS 
THAN "ENGAGING OUR POLITICAL RIVALS."  THE SUSPENSIONS 
WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A PUNISHMENT FOR THOSE LOCAL PARTY 
OFFICIALS WHO ALLOWED THE MDC TO WIN SO MANY SEATS IN 
THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. 
 
8.  (C) THE OCTOBER 13 EDITION OF "THE HERALD" REPORTED 
THAT MUGABE IS THINKING OF TURNING OVER THE PRESIDENCY 
TO A SUCCESSOR, BUT NOT WHEN THE PARTY IS "IN 
DIFFICULTY," AND ONLY AFTER IT "WINS VICTORY" AND 
ENSURES THAT THE COUNTRY'S "INDEPENDENCE IS NOT IN THE 
HANDS OF STOOGES AND AGENTS OF IMPERIALISTS" - A CLEAR 
REFERENCE TO THE MDC. MUGABE'S COMMENTS IN A BBC 
INTERVIEW, AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT PROMINENT COVERAGE IN 
THE "HERALD," WERE LIKELY INTENDED TO ASSUAGE THE 
RESTIVE PARTY MASSES AHEAD OF THIS YEAR'S PARTY 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7416 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05829  03 OF 03  131101Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   ITC-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------913C9F  131101Z /38 
P 131101Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7357 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IGNORING CLAMOR FOR 
CHANGE AT ITS OWN PERIL 
 
CONGRESS.  THE REMARKS PROVIDE MUGABE WITH AN EXCUSE TO 
STAY AT THE PARTY'S HELM.  AS WETHERELL CHARACTERIZED 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  05829  03 OF 03  131101Z 
IT, MUGABE IS TRYING TO PROJECT AN IMAGE OF AN EMBATTLED 
LEADER UNDER SIEGE FROM FOREIGN "IMPERIALISTS" (BRITAIN 
AND THE U.S.) AND "COUNTERREVOLUTIONARIES" WITHIN THE 
COUNTRY (MDC MEMBERS AND WHITES).  CREATING ENEMIES 
OUTSIDE THE PARTY IS THE ONLY WAY HE BELIEVES HE CAN 
KEEP A LID ON THE GROWING DISCONTENT WITHIN THE PARTY 
AND THE COUNTRY. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT: PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS LOYAL OLD 
GUARD APPEAR TO BE POSITIONING THEMSELVES TO WARD OFF 
ANY CHALLENGES TO THEIR ENTRENCHED LEADERSHIP AT THIS 
YEAR'S PARTY CONGRESS.  AT LAST YEAR'S CONGRESS, MUGABE 
AND COMPANY SUCCESSFULLY SWEPT UNDER THE RUG THE YOUNG 
TURKS' CALLS FOR REFORMING THE PARTY, AND THIS YEAR IS 
NOT LIKELY TO BE ANY DIFFERENT.  MUGABE HAS SHOWN NO 
WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE WITH ANYONE WHO ESPOUSES 
ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINTS.  HE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF 
THE POLITBURO, THE PARTY'S PRIMARY DECISION-MAKING BODY. 
UNLIKE MUGABE'S EARLY YEARS IN WHICH HE RULED MORE BY 
CONSENSUS, HE IS NOW MORE FREQUENTLY RULING BY DECREE ON 
CRITICAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND REFORM, AND IN THE PROCESS 
SIDELINING PARLIAMENT, HIS CABINET, AND HIS OWN PARTY. 
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW LONG THE PARTY FAITHFUL ARE 
WILLING TO WAIT FOR CHANGE FROM THE TOP BEFORE THEY 
REVOLT AND KICK MUGABE OUT.  THIS YEAR'S CONGRESS IS 
PROBABLY THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR ZANU-PF TO BEGIN 
MANAGING A SMOOTH CHANGEOVER BEFORE THE MAY 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THE PARTY NEEDS ALL THE TIME IT 
CAN GET TO CHANGE ITS IMAGE OF AN OUTDATED AND 
FOSSILIZED ORGANIZATION THAT NO LONGER HAS THE INTERESTS 
OF THE PEOPLE AT HEART.  IF THE SUCCESSION ISSUE IS ONCE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  05829  03 OF 03  131101Z 
AGAIN SWEPT UNDER THE RUG THIS YEAR, OR MUGABE REAFFIRMS 
HE WILL AGAIN STAND FOR PRESIDENT, EVEN THE PARTY 
FAITHFUL MAY DECIDE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING 
IN GOVERNMENT BY JOINING THE OPPOSITION.  IF HE DOES NOT 
ALLOW SOME CHANGE TO COME NOW, MUGABE RISKS A MORE 
SUDDEN, AND FOR HIM, UNDESIRABLE, CHANGE DOWN THE ROAD. 
END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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