US embassy cable - 00HARARE5728

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/11/10 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  TSVANGIRAI QUESTIONED AND RELEASED BY POLICE 
 
REF: A) HARARE 5681  B) HARARE 5585 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
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1.  (U) AT THE REQUEST OF POLICE, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI SPENT TWO HOURS ON OCTOBER 10 AT THE CRIMINAL 
 
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INVESTIGATIONS DIVISION (CID) ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN 
CONNECTION WITH HIS STATEMENT AT A POLITICAL RALLY ON 
SEPTEMBER 30.   AS REPORTED REF B, TSVANGIRAI SAID AT THE 
RALLY THAT MUGABE "SHOULD GO PEACEFULLY.  IF NOT, WE WILL 
REMOVE YOU VIOLENTLY."  IN SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT PUBLIC 
APPEARANCES, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD MEANT THAT, IF THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DOES NOT CHOOSE TO GO PEACEFULLY, THE 
PUBLIC, ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED BY THE DETERIORATION OF THE 
ECONOMY AND BY THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ENSURE THE RULE 
OF LAW, WILL FORCE HIM TO GO. 
 
2.  (U)  IN A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER HIS QUESTIONING, 
TSVANGIRAI SAID POLICE HAD TREATED HIM WELL.  THEY HAD 
 
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TAKEN HIS FINGERPRINTS AND INFORMED HIM OF FIVE POSSIBLE 
CHARGES THAT MIGHT BE BROUGHT AGAINST HIM.  TSVANGIRAI 
EXPECTED THE POLICE WOULD SOON PRESENT ITS EVIDENCE TO THE 
ATTORNEY-GENERAL'S OFFICE, WHICH WOULD DECIDE WHETHER TO 
PROCEED WITH PROSECUTION. 
 
3.  (C) POLOFF SPOKE ON OCTOBER 11 WITH GANDI MUDZINGWA, 
TSVANGIRAI'S CLOSE AIDE WHO ACCOMPANIED THE MDC PRESIDENT 
 
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TO CID HEADQUARTERS.  MUDZINGWA SAID THE FIVE POTENTIAL 
CHARGES MENTIONED BY POLICE RELATED TO CONDUCT INTENDED TO 
BRING THE NAME OF THE PRESIDENT INTO DISREPUTE OR LIKELY TO 
INCITE VIOLENCE OR HOSTILITY AGAINST THE PRESIDENT. 
ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA, THE POLICE WERE NOT SURE WHICH 
CHARGES WERE MOST RELEVANT, SO THEY WERE CASTING A WIDE 
NET.  IN THE MEANTIME, TSVANGIRAI HAS NOT BEEN FORMALLY 
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CHARGED AND IS CIRCULATING FREELY.  ASKED WHETHER HE 
THOUGHT THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL WOULD DECIDE TO PROSECUTE, 
MUDZINGWA SAID THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY DESPERATE, AND HE 
WAS RELUCTANT TO PREDICT WHAT STEPS PEOPLE IN SUCH A STATE 
MIGHT TAKE.  HE EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE, THOUGH, THAT MDC 
LAWYERS WOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO REFUTE THE CHARGES IN 
COURT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
4.  (C) ALTHOUGH TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN ROUNDLY CRITICIZED -- 
AND APPROPRIATELY SO -- BY OBSERVERS OF ALL POLITICAL 
STRIPES FOR HIS CARELESS REMARK ON SEPTEMBER 30, HE AND 
OTHER MDC OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY DOES NOT ADVOCATE THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF PRESIDENT 
MUGABE.  WE THINK TSVANGIRAI WAS SURPRISED -- AND CHASTENED 
-- BY THE REACTION TO HIS WORDS AND WILL BE MORE CAREFUL IN 
THE FUTURE ABOUT WHAT HE SAYS IN PUBLIC.  WE CONTINUE TO 
BELIEVE THAT THE MDC REMAINS A PARTY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING 
ITS POLITICAL OBJECTIVES USING PEACEFUL MEANS. 
 
5.  (C) THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS HOW THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO 
PROCEED.  THE GOZ MUST BE VERY CAREFUL, AS TSVANGIRAI'S 
ARREST COULD TRIGGER WIDESPREAD ANGER AND PUBLIC 
DEMONSTRATIONS WHICH MIGHT PROVE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.   WE 
SUSPECT THAT THE PUBLIC REACTION IN THE FRY AFTER PRESIDENT 
MILOSEVIC'S RECENT ELECTORAL DEFEAT LIKELY IS A POWERFUL 
IMAGE IN THE MINDS OF PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR GOZ 
OFFICIALS.  AS MUDZINGWA PUT IT TO US, THE GOZ MADE SO MUCH 
NOISE ABOUT TSVANGIRAI'S COMMENTS THAT IT HAD AT LEAST TO 
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APPEAR TO BRING HIM TO TASK.  THE QUESTIONING BY POLICE, 
WHICH OVER THE OCTOBER 7-8 WEEKEND HAD BEEN MANEUVERING 
ITSELF INTO A LOSE-LOSE SITUATION THANKS TO ITS SPOKESMAN'S 
TUB THUMPING ABOUT RUNNING IN TSVANGIRAI, COULD ALLOW THE 
GOVERNMENT TO SAVE FACE WITHOUT HAVING TO COPE WITH THE 
VOLATILE CONSEQUENCES OF ARRESTING HIM. 
 
IRVING 
 
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