US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO44

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000044 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  01/09/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED POLITICAL SITUATION WITH 
MILINDA MORAGODA:  DOES THE PM WANT A DEAL? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASONS 1.5 
B, D. 
 
REF:  Colombo 0032 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Milinda Moragoda says it is not clear if 
the PM wants a deal with the President, or a 
confrontation. The Indians continue to try to work the 
issue.  Milinda sees proposed Tokyo co-chairs meeting as a 
way to keep attention focussed on Sri Lanka, but thinks 
outcome needs to be carefully managed.  Milinda is aware 
that public opinion in Sri Lanka can change quickly and is 
concerned that the PM stick to the moral high ground. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
A Deal or Not? 
-------------- 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador on Jan 9 called on Milinda Moragoda, 
just recently back from his visit to Washington, Norway 
and Brussels.  Ambassador described his meeting with 
President Kumaratunga (CBK) at which he handed over 
Secretary Powell's letter, noting that CBK at first said 
 
SIPDIS 
she could not compromise any further with President, but 
at end admitted she might have some wiggle room. 
Ambassador said he believed CBK would not take a deal in 
which she retained the Defense Minister title but handed 
over all powers to the PM; she might take a deal under 
which she gazetted some powers. 
 
3.  (C) Milinda said that Indian High Commissioner Nirupam 
Sen was continuing to work this issue, still pushing the 
idea of setting up theater commands which the PM would 
control.  Milinda then said: "I have to talk to the PM to 
see if he really wants a deal or not."  Ninety-five 
percent of the Parliamentary group want a deal, but five 
percent are hardliners who want a confrontation. 
 
Co-chairs Meeting 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) Milinda asked if the proposed co-chairs meeting 
was now set, and Ambassador replied he believed invites 
would go out shortly.  Milinda said he believed the 
meeting would have two possible functions, depending on 
the movement in the political situation.  If the impasse 
were resolved by that time, it could chart a way forward 
on assistance and re-emphasize the need for sticking to 
the economic reform program.  If not resolved, it could 
serve to keep donor attention focussed on Sri Lanka. 
Ambassador noted that some donors seemed to want to 
release aid to the North and East, as the perception was 
that it was now the Government that was holding up the 
peace process.  Milinda looked discomfited, and said there 
would have to be some balance about assistance to the 
South.  (Comment:  Both Japanese Ambassador Suda and 
Netherlands Ambassador Blankhart--just taken over for the 
EU Presidency--appear adamant about holding back on 
assistance in the South.) 
 
5.  (C) Milinda said that he had briefed the Cabinet on 
Thursday, telling them that a Co-chairs meeting would 
"probably happen."  This meant that news of the meeting 
would almost certainly appear in this Sunday's newspapers. 
What should he say when the press asked him about this, 
Milinda said. Could the US issue a statement about the 
meeting?  Ambassador replied since the invitations to the 
meeting were just going out, it was unlikely we would 
issue a statement before replies had been received. 
 
6.  (C) Milinda said that he was confused himself about 
the Prime Minister's public comments about the cease-fire 
agreement (reftel). Ambassador noted that the statement 
did not seem to have played well, as many Sri Lankans 
seemed to view it as the PM playing politics with the 
peace process.  Ambassador and Milinda then discussed the 
prior day's meeting of the Joint Business Forum (Sri 
Lanka's apex private sector organization), at which some 
300 CEO's had angrily protested at the lack of progress on 
resolving the political crisis.  Milinda said he was 
trying to convince the PM that he had to keep the moral 
high ground. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Milinda's question about whether or not 
the PM really wants a deal is telling.  The signals are 
mixed, and the PM is clearly receiving conflicting advice. 
His dislike and distrust for the President are probably 
driving him towards a confrontation.  On the other side 
public pressure is strongly in favor of compromise. 
 
LUNSTEAD