US embassy cable - 04HARARE41

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000041 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SF, ZI, Zimbabwe South African Relations 
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN AMBASSADOR HOPES FOR EARLY PROGRESS 
ON ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: 03 HARARE 2443 
 
Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for reasons 1.5(b) and (d) 
 
1.  Summary: South African Ambassador Ndou presented a 
positive description of possibilities for progress toward 
resolution of Zimbabwe's political crisis based on President 
Mbeki's Dec 18 visit.  Ndou believed the next steps were for 
ZANU/PF and MDC negotiators to finalize their discussions on 
the constitution and transitional mechanisms to ratify the 
constitution and agree on transitional mechanisms to hold 
simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in 
2005.  End summary. 
 
2.(C) South African Ambassador (formerly High Commissioner) 
Jeremiah Ndou offered the Ambassador, Jan 8, a predictably 
positive description of possibilities for expedited progress 
toward resolution of Zimbabwe's political crisis.  He said 
that President Mbeki had found President Mugabe very well 
versed on the details of informal talks between ZANU 
negotiator Patrick Chinamasa and MDC negotiator Welshman 
Ncube over a new constitution, notwithstanding Mugabe's 
public statement that he was not well informed about such 
discussions.  Ndou thought that Mugabe's absence for a 
month-long working vacation in Asia should not impede 
progress since Mugabe had called in Chinamasa and other 
ZANU-PF negotiators after his meeting with Mbeki to give them 
clear instructions.  Ndou said that principal issues to be 
resolved were how to approve a new constitution, by 
parliamentary vote or referendum, when joint presidential and 
parliamentary elections should be held, what transitional 
mechanisms should be put in place, and how election 
preparations, such as selection of an independent election 
commission should be chosen.  Mugabe had cited March as the 
traditional month for parliamentary elections, excluding the 
year 2000, and asked whether election preparations would be 
able to be put in place by March, 2005, Ndou acknowledged 
that election preparations steps could have been taken over 
the past several months if ZANU-PF had been willing to 
finalize the negotiations earlier, but he was inclined to 
excuse ZANU-PF delay due to distractions of the Commonwealth 
meeting and the ZANU-PF Conference rather than attribute it 
to bad faith.    Chinamasa and Ncube would also be expected 
to negotiate an agenda and terms for initiation of a formal 
MDC/ZANU-PF dialogue. 
 
3. (C) Ndou said that President Mbeki had not rased directly 
during his visit the delicate issue of precisely when Mugabe 
would leave nor the "environmental issues of dismantlement of 
youth brigades, respect for judicial decisions permitting 
reopening of the "Daily News", nor revision of the repressive 
public order and media legislation.  Ndou said that Mbeki had 
chosen to focus on the core issue of agreement on a 
constitution and a presidential and parliamentary election. 
Ndou acknowledged that Mugabe had failed to fulfill prior 
commitments to revise repressive POSA and AIPPA legislation, 
since revisions only made legislation worse. 
 
4. (C) Ndou said that he would be responsible for follow-up 
with the parties, but acknowledged that he had no indication 
of progress since Mbeki's visit and that Chinamasa would only 
be returning to Harare this next week.  He said that Mbeki 
would call Mugabe as necessary and would visit if required. 
 
5. (C) Ndou said that he believed it would be important to 
have the next election conducted, not just observed, by the 
United Nations or the African Union to assure its 
credibility.  He also suggested international supervision of 
the media during the pre-election period. (It was not clear 
here whether these were set SAG positions, but we do not 
believe they have yet been proposed to the GOZ.)  Ndou 
acknowledged that there would be Government resistance to 
such an idea on the basis of national sovereignty, but 
thought that the recent request from Justice Minister 
Chinamasa for UN assistance with 2005 parliamentary elections 
provided an entry point.  Ndou was clear that current GOZ 
election mechanisms were inadequate and must be changed.  He 
also stressed the need to find a means to agree on how to 
choose and constitute an independent election commission, as 
provided in the new draft constitution. 
 
6. (C) On a separate issue, Ndou said that previously 
discussed South African food assistance to Zimbabwe was now 
less likely in view of drought conditions in South Africa. 
He noted his observation that this year's poor plantings 
assured that current crop production would also be poor. 
 
7. (C) Comment: Ndou had to be upbeat in view of President 
Mbeki's stake in the success of his quiet diplomacy. 
However, Ndou's description of Mugabe's commitments to Mbeki 
gives a bit more room for hope that progress might be made in 
the context of 2005 elections.  But Mugabe's failure to 
fulfill previous commitments to Mbeki on repressive POSA and 
AIPPA legislation as well as his continued playing for time 
on an election date raise serious questions.  We come to the 
same conclusion as in last month's reftel that meaningful 
engagement by ZANU-PF will require sustained and perhaps more 
forceful pressure by Mbeki. 
 
8. (C) The UNresrep has treated the GOZ request for election 
assistance with kid gloves in view of GOZ past and present 
conduct of elections.  We intend to discuss further with 
resrep the potential of a somewhat more activist UN response 
which could have the effect of adding to pressure for free 
and fair elections. 
SULLIVAN