US embassy cable - 04ABUDHABI95

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 000095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/14 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TC 
SUBJECT:  A SENIOR EMIRATI ON POLITICAL REFORM, IRAQ AND 
MBZ APPOINTMENT 
 
 
1. (U) Classified by Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba, for 
reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
2. (C) Summary and Comment:  The Ambassador met one-on-one 
with Mohamed Habroush Al Suwaidi, chairman of the National 
Bank of Abu Dhabi, to discuss the current situation in 
Iraq, the recent appointment of Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed to 
the post of Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince and the prospects 
for increased political participation in the UAE.  Habroush 
holds several senior positions and plays a key role in 
charting the financial future of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. 
He is a senior and highly influential member of Abu Dhabi's 
Supreme Petroleum Council and the Abu Dhabi Executive 
Council.  Habroush is one of the small handful of educated 
Emiratis who returned from abroad to work alongside Shaykh 
Zayed to establish the UAE federation in the 1970's.  From 
the start Habroush was put in charge of finance and served 
as chairman of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority from 1987 
to 1996.  A close confidant of the Abu Dhabi ruling family, 
Habroush also serves as advisor and mentor to Abu Dhabi 
Crown Prince Khalifa bin Zayed.  He maintains an extremely 
low public profile but has always readily agreed to meet 
with the Ambassador and last summer played a helpful role 
in resolving the problem with the Zayed Center for 
Coordination and Follow-up.  Habroush's comments on 
succession and political reform in the UAE are significant 
given his background and close ties with the ruling family. 
His liberal outlook and pro-west leanings probably reflect 
the views of many of the senior leaders of Abu Dhabi who 
worked hand in hand with Shaykh Zayed to establish a 
federation based on consensus and a philosophy of tolerance 
and acceptance. 
 
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Checks and balances key to future Iraqi stability 
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3. (C) The conversation quickly turned to Iraq where 
Habroush spent a number of years, pre-Saddam era, 
attending Baghdad University.  Habroush believes that with 
Saddam's capture violence will eventually subside and 
resistance diminish.  Sunnis are clearly angered by turn of 
events and the USG made some early mistakes that added to 
Sunni discontent - he pointed to disbanding the army as the 
most serious strategic error.  In response to the 
Ambassador's brief on next steps leading up to the 
transition from CPA to a Iraqi interim government, he said 
our effort to reach out to Sunni leadership is a good 
strategy to achieving long term stability and should be 
intensified.   Given the 35 years of rule by Saddam, he was 
not sure how much power Sunni tribal leaders continue to 
exercise. Right now the only options within the Sunni 
community are tribal leaders or clerics - and of the two 
groups he believes tribal leaders remain the more 
influential.  Habroush said he read reports on the USG's 
plan to organize the Iraqi Military with 40% Shia, 30% 
Sunni and 30% Kurdish.  In his view this is a well balanced 
combination that will not allow any one group to have 
unchecked powers.  Habroush commented that we should base 
the political process on the same ratios. The curse of 
Saddam's reign was the fact that the Sunni/Baathist regime 
was omnipotent without any checks or balances from other 
power centers of Iraqi society.  Habroush said the key to a 
stable future in Iraq is to make sure that the major 
ethnic/religious groups all have healthy representation so 
that no one group can act alone. 
 
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Appointment of MbZ to Deputy CP the right move 
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4. (C) Habroush, who is a close friend and mentor to the CP 
and with close ties to Shaykh Sultan bin Zayed, was very 
positive on the appointment of Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed 
(MbZ) to the post of Deputy CP.  (Note:  During the 
controversy with the Zayed Center for Coordination and 
Follow up, Habroush was the Crown Prince's emissary to his 
younger half brother, who ran the Center.  End Note) 
Haborush told the Ambassador that this appointment was in 
the works for a long time.  MbZ has been playing the role 
of Deputy CP to Shaykh Khalifa for several years and now it 
has been formalized.  MbZ is capable, hard working and a 
natural leader he said.  Shaykh Zayed, by making this 
appointment, has helped alleviate all the speculation and 
has ensured a stable succession.  Habroush added that MbZ 
is a very popular figure in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, the 
UAE, and the region so it was well received and everyone's 
reaction has been positive.  He pointed to MbZ's many 
accomplishments including taking the lead in forging ties 
with the US, with France and the UK - all important 
relationships for the UAE.  CP Khalifa is very happy with 
the decision Habroush said "and even the brother most 
affected by this appointment, Sultan bin Zayed, welcomed 
and accepted the decision." 
 
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Time to open up political participation in the UAE 
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5. (C) The Ambassador raised the subject of democratization 
that she had first discussed with Habroush several months 
ago. As he did the first time, Habroush told the Ambassador 
that he believes this is the right time for the leadership 
to make the decision to allow their citizens to participate 
in running the country and sharing the responsibility.  It 
is better to give them that right rather than wait to have 
them take it or demand it.  UAE nationals are well 
educated, content with their socio-economic situation and 
very supportive of their political leadership - why not 
give them a substantive role?  Habroush noted that in some 
ways the UAE has regressed in this area because in the past 
"we enjoyed a more open and democratic process through 
planning and municipal councils that played an active role 
in decision making - in terms of how to spend resources and 
developmental priorities."  He added that along with 
increased political participation there is a need to have a 
more transparent fiscal policy where the "lines are clear 
between the private purse and the public purse. This is 
very important and I am concered those lines are getting 
more blurred rather than more transparent." 
 
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UAE Political Leadership not ready to make decisions 
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6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query if these 
issues are being seriously discussed for imminent 
implementation, Habroush said that while there is some 
discussion in the inner circles, few are ready to take the 
next step of actually making a decision and implementing 
it.  In Dubai an announcement was made for elected 
Municipal councils but there has been no effort whatsoever 
to implement that decision.  "It would be easy, he said, to 
create municipal councils that are a mixture of elected and 
appointed officials like Qatar or Oman but we must give 
them a mandate - a substantive role in determining local 
community life."  Habroush said in the UAE many in the 
political leadership argue that since everything is working 
well there is no need for a change that may bring about 
undesirable consequences as in Kuwait where Islamists have 
a strong voice.  "They don't understand, he said, that this 
is the right time to make the change - before we have any 
serious discontent within our society." 
 
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Before or after Zayed? 
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7. (C) The Ambassador pointed to recent political openings 
in Bahrain, Qatar and Oman and wondered if the hesitation 
in the UAE is due to the age of the President who may not 
wish to tackle an issue which will require some heavy 
lifting with the conservative tribal leaders of Abu Dhabi, 
Dubai and the Northern Emirates.  Habroush conceded that 
while it will take some work, it would be more easily 
accepted by all Emiratis if done by Shaykh Zayed than 
anyone else.  Shaykh Zayed has always been ahead of his 
time and more liberal than most people around him he said. 
If the issue is raised with him he will support it.  In 
earlier conversations with the Ambassador both Shaykh 
Mohamed bin Zayed and Hamdan bin Zayed have insinuated that 
this is too sensitive and difficult an issue to raise with 
Shaykh Zayed due to the state of his health and advanced 
age but both were firmly committed to democratic reform. 
 
WAHBA