US embassy cable - 00HARARE5629

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, PINR, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC 
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05629  01 OF 03  041739Z 
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 5579, B) HARARE 5585, C) HARARE 5602 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ON OCTOBER 4, AMBASSADOR, R/P OFFICER, 
AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) CALLED ON MINISTER OF STATE FOR 
NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO).  IN A ONE-ON- 
ONE MEETING, AMBASSADOR URGED GOCHE TO USE RESTRAINT IN 
DEALING WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR HIS 
REMARKS AT A POLITICAL RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 (REF B).  HE 
TOLD THE MINISTER HE HAD MADE THE SAME POINT TO 
TSVANGIRAI.  GOCHE INFORMED AMBASSADOR THAT THE GOZ 
 
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WOULD NOT/NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI SO LONG AS THE MDC DID 
NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS STATEMENTS OF VIOLENT ACTION 
AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT.  IN THE GENERAL MEETING, GOCHE 
STRESSED THAT THE GOZ CONTINUES TO PRESS KABILA HARD TO 
ABIDE BY LUSAKA AND BELIEVES THAT KABILA IS IN MORE OF A 
CONCILIATORY MOOD AFTER HIS RECENT VISITS WITH MUGABE 
(REF A).  GOCHE INDICATED WITHDRAWAL PLANS EXISTED, BUT 
WAS UNWILLING TO DISCUSS ITS IMPLEMENTATION DATE.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
GOZ WILL NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) IN A BRIEF ONE-ON-ONE MEETING WITH MINISTER OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05629  01 OF 03  041739Z 
STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, AMBASSADOR 
STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF USING RESTRAINT WITH THE MDC 
DESPITE THE UNWISE REMARKS MADE BY ITS LEADER, MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI, AT A RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 IN HARARE.  (NOTE: 
 
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TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT IF MUGABE DID NOT RESIGN SOON, HIS 
 
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SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE TO FORCE HIM OUT. 
MDC OFFICIALS HAVE SINCE BACKTRACKED ON THIS STATEMENT, 
SAYING THAT THE PARTY DOES NOT INTEND TO VIOLENTLY 
OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT BUT THAT ZIMBABWEANS MAY ACT 
SPONTANEOUSLY IF MUGABE DOES NOT LEAVE OFFICE SOON.  IN 
FACT, THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS EMBARRASSED BY TSVANGIRAI'S 
GAFF.  SEE REF B).  GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE CIO FROM THE 
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE, ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR THAT 
TSVANGIRAI WOULD NOT BE ARRESTED SO LONG AS THE MDC DOES 
 
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NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON HIS REMARKS AND INCITE VIOLENT 
ACTION AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT.  GOCHE CHARACTERIZED THE 
REMARKS AS A POLITICAL STATEMENT, TO WHICH THE GOZ 
RESPONDED WITH ITS OWN POLITICAL STATEMENT SAYING IT MAY 
ARREST AND PROSECUTE TSVANGIRAI.  GOCHE DESCRIBED THE 
EXCHANGE AS POLITICAL POSTURING THAT WOULD PROBABLY NOT 
AMOUNT TO MUCH.  THE AMBASSADOR INFORMED GOCHE THAT WE 
HAVE URGED TSVANGIRAI AND HIS TEAM TO EXERCISE 
RESTRAINT. 
 
3.  (C) MORE OMINOUSLY, HOWEVER, GOCHE WENT ON TO SAY 
THAT HE BELIEVES THE MDC IS A VIOLENT PARTY THAT IMPORTS 
WEAPONS AND HAS NEFARIOUS PLANS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. 
GOCHE CITED THE SEPTEMBER 14-15 RAID ON THE MDC 
HEADQUARTERS.  THE AMBASSADOR INTERJECTED, SAYING THAT 
THE MDC IS MORE ASTUTE THAN THAT AND SURELY REALIZES 
THAT IF IT WAS CAUGHT IMPORTING WEAPONS, IT WOULD INVITE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  05629  01 OF 03  041739Z 
A MORE EXTENSIVE CRACKDOWN ON ITS ACTIVITIES. 
AMBASSADOR EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR BOTH 
SIDES TO USE MEASURED RESPONSES AND NOT TO BLOW THINGS 
OUT OF PROPORTION. 
 
-------------- 
DROC SITUATION 
-------------- 
 
4.  (C) IN THE GENERAL MEETING WITH R/P OFFICER AND 
POLOFF (NOTETAKER), AMBASSADOR ASKED GOCHE FOR AN 
APPRAISAL OF THE DROC SITUATION (GOCHE WAS IN THE REF B 
MEETINGS BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE).  THE MINISTER SAID 
MONUC WAS STILL DEPLOYING DESPITE THE BUREAUCRATIC 
DIFFICULTIES IT HAS ENCOUNTERED, AND IT WOULD BE IN 
MBANDAKA SOON.  HE EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE RENEWED 
FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE, AND SAID ZIMBABWE HAS 
WARNED MLC LEADER BEMBA TO STOP HIS ADVANCE ON MBANDAKA. 
NONETHELESS, ZIMBABWE REMAINS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH 
BEMBA AND HAS A GOOD RAPPORT WITH HIM, ACCORDING TO 
GOCHE.  BEMBA IS NOT A "CHESS PLAYER" (I.E., NOT A 
SCHEMER) AND CAN BE TRUSTED WHEN HE SAYS THAT HE WILL 
STOP FIGHTING ONCE KABILA STOPS FIGHTING. 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9111 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05629  02 OF 03  041739Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   MFA-01   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /011W 
                  ------------------8D9F3E  041748Z /38 
O 041715Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7279 
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, PINR, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC 
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05629  02 OF 03  041739Z 
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC 
 
KABILA IN MORE CONCILIATORY MOOD 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) IN HIS MEETINGS WITH KABILA, MUGABE AGAIN 
PRESSED KABILA HARD ON THE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVING THE 
LUSAKA CEASE-FIRE.  WHEN ASKED IF MUGABE WAS BECOMING 
ANGRY WITH KABILA'S RECALCITRANCE, GOCHE STATED THAT 
MUGABE DOES NOT SHOW ANGER WITH KABILA, BUT DOES SPEAK 
TO HIM IN STRONG TERMS.  THE MINISTER BELIEVED THAT 
KABILA GOT THE MESSAGE TO ABIDE BY LUSAKA.  HE OBSERVED 
THAT KABILA APPEARED MORE RELAXED AND FORTHCOMING WITH 
MUGABE THAN IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS, AND THAT KABILA WAS 
COMING UP WITH NEW SUGGESTIONS ON THE WAY FORWARD, 
SOMETHING HE WAS NOT PRONE TO DO IN THE PAST.  GOCHE 
SAID KABILA EVEN SHOWED SIGNS OF COMPROMISE ON THE 
STATUS OF FORMER BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MASIRE AS 
FACILITATOR, BUT THAT THIS WAS DISCUSSED PRIVATELY 
BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE.  GOCHE DID SAY THAT KABILA 
WAS OPPOSED TO THE PRESENCE OF A MR. WINTER, A BRITISH 
NATIONAL, AS MASIRE'S ASSISTANT FACILITATOR.  KABILA 
WANTS A FRENCH-SPEAKING AFRICAN IN THAT POSITION, 
ACCORDING TO THE MINISTER. 
 
---------------------------------- 
MBEKI EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES MEETING 
---------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI'S PROPOSED MEETING 
BETWEEN THE LUSAKA EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES IS DUE TO BE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05629  02 OF 03  041739Z 
HELD "SOON," GOCHE STATED, BUT NO FIRM DATE HAS BEEN SET 
(SEE REF C).  MBEKI HAD ORIGINALLY PLANNED THE MEETING 
FOR THE SEPTEMBER 30 WEEKEND, BUT MUGABE OBJECTED TO THE 
SHORT NOTICE AND ASKED THAT IT BE SCHEDULED A LITTLE 
LATER.  THE PURPOSE OF THE CONFERENCE, WHICH IS TO 
INCLUDE KABILA, IS TO REVIEW THE DROC CONFLICT, ENSURE 
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA, PUSH KABILA TO UNDERTAKE 
THE INTERNAL DIALOGUE PROCESS, AND TELL HIM THAT HE 
CANNOT BE A "PERPETUAL OBSTACLE" TO PEACE IN THE DROC. 
GOCHE ADDED THAT ZIMBABWE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE "PERSON" 
OF KABILA NECESSARILY, BUT THAT IT DOES SUPPORT THE 
"SOVEREIGNTY OF THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE."  IF KABILA HELD 
ELECTIONS AND WAS ELECTED, ZIMBABWE WOULD SUPPORT HIM 
PERSONALLY IN THAT CASE. 
 
------------------------------ 
NO DETAILS ON EARLY WITHDRAWAL 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF 
ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC, GOCHE WAS COY AND NON- 
COMMITTAL.  EVEN THOUGH HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PLANS WERE 
ALREADY FORMULATED, HE WOULD NOT SAY IT WOULD HAPPEN 
BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.  GOCHE WAS RELUCTANT TO GO 
INTO FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT A WITHDRAWAL, BUT SAID IT WAS 
NOT CONTINGENT UPON MONUC DEPLOYMENT.  AMBASSADOR ASKED 
GOCHE IF ZIMBABWE WOULD WITHDRAW IF THERE WAS NOT A FULL 
MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN DROC, AND HE SAID HE DID NOT KNOW. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  WE ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED BY GOCHE'S 
STATEMENT THAT THE GOZ DOES NOT INTEND TO ARREST 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  05629  02 OF 03  041739Z 
TSVANGIRAI AND WE SHARE HIS ASSESSMENT THAT THE BACK- 
 
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AND-FORTH BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF THIS WEEK OVER THE 
ISSUE IS MORE ABOUT POLITICAL POSTURING THAN ANYTHING 
ELSE.  THEY DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TSVANGIRAI A MARTYR. 
TSVANGIRAI'S OVERBLOWN STATEMENT WAS LIKELY DONE IN THE 
 
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HEAT OF THE MOMENT, BUT NEITHER SIDE SEEMS EAGER FOR A 
FIGHT IN THE CURRENT TENSE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT.  OF 
MORE CONCERN IS AN MDC ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE MASS STAY- 
AWAYS OR A GENERAL STRIKE.  IAN HAY-CAMPBELL, THE 
BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE, TOLD US THAT THE 
MDC LEADERSHIP HAS DECIDED TO POSTPONE INDEFINITELY ANY 
MASS ACTION IN LIGHT OF TSVANGIRAI'S WEEKEND STATEMENT. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  REGARDING GOCHE'S STATEMENTS 
ON THE DROC, WE ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO HEAR THAT KABILA 
SEEMS TO BE IN A MORE FLEXIBLE MOOD.  THE ATTENTION AND 
STRAIGHT TALK CONVEYED TO HIM BY HIS ALLIES IN THE LAST 
WEEK HAS PROBABLY HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT. 
HOWEVER, THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GOZ 
ABOUT THE TIMING AND MANNER OF A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF 
ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC.  OUR INTERLOCUTORS SAY 
THAT IT IS NOT CONTINGENT UPON A MONUC DEPLOYMENT, BUT 
IN REALITY, IT PROBABLY IS.  MUGABE HAS BEEN LOOKING FOR 
A FACE-SAVING WAY TO PULL OUT ALMOST SINCE HE WENT IN, 
AND THE FULL MONUC DEPLOYMENT WILL GIVE HIM THAT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9110 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05629  03 OF 03  041739Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   MFA-01   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /011W 
                  ------------------8D9F3A  041748Z /38 
O 041715Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7280 
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, PINR, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC 
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05629  03 OF 03  041739Z 
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC 
 
MUGABE IS IN A RACE TO CONVINCE KABILA TO COOPERATE WITH 
THE U.N. BEFORE THE FINANCIAL DRAIN AND POLITICAL 
OPPOSITION ARISING FROM THE DROC DEPLOYMENT FURTHER 
UNDERMINE HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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