US embassy cable - 00HARARE5585

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005585 
 
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NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT:  PEACEFUL MDC RALLY, BUT CONTROVERSY OVER TSVANGIRAI'S 
REMARKS 
 
REF:  HARARE 5581 
 
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CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
RALLY 
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1.  (C) APPROXIMATELY 20,000 PEOPLE ATTENDED A PEACEFUL RALLY HELD 
BY THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) ON SEPTEMBER 
30 TO CELEBRATE THE PARTY'S ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY.  MDC MEMBER OF 
PARLIAMENT TENDAI BITI TOLD POLOFF THAT POLICE HARASSMENT HAD NOT 
BEEN AS BAD AS HE EXPECTED.  HIS ONLY COMPLAINT WAS THAT POLICE 
ROADBLOCKS MOUNTED AROUND TOWN FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE RALLY MIGHT 
HAVE SCARED SOME PEOPLE AWAY.  ACCORDING TO BITI, RALLY PARTICIPANTS 
CALLED OVERWHELMINGLY FOR MASS ACTION AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT.  THIS 
WEEK THE MDC'S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE WILL DISCUSS WHAT KIND OF ACTION 
TO ORGANIZE AND WHEN IT WILL TAKE PLACE. 
 
TSVANGIRAI'S CONTROVERSIAL COMMENTS 
 
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2.  (U) BOTH THE INDEPENDENT AND GOVERNMENT PRESS QUOTED TSVANGIRAI 
AS DECLARING AT THE RALLY THAT "MUGABE SHOULD GO PEACEFULLY.  IF HE 
DOES NOT, WE WILL REMOVE HIM VIOLENTLY."  GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS 
REACTED STRONGLY, WITH POLICE SPOKESMAN WAYNE BVUDZIJENA ANNOUNCING 
THAT TSVANGIRAI COULD FACE ARREST AND PROSECUTION FOR ADVOCATING THE 
VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF THE PRESIDENT.  A ZANU-PF SPOKESMAN CRITICIZED 
TSVANGIRAI'S REMARKS AS A "SHOCKING STATEMENT FROM A PERSON WHO 
 
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CLAIMS TO BE DEMOCRATIC" AND VOWED THAT HIS PARTY WOULD "ANSWER 
VIOLENCE WITH VIOLENCE." 
 
3.  (C) MDC CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO SAT BESIDE TSVANGIRAI AT THE 
RALLY.  HE TOLD POLOFF ON OCTOBER 2 THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD MEANT THAT 
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PRESIDENT MUGABE SHOULD GO PEACEFULLY BUT IF NOT, ZIMBABWEANS, WHO 
ARE FED UP WITH THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC DECLINE AND POLITICAL 
INSTABILITY, WOULD FORCE HIM TO GO.  THE MDC, TSVANGIRAI HAD 
IMPLIED, WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO CONTAIN PEOPLE IF MUGABE CONTINUED TO 
HOLD ON TO POWER.  MATONGO EMPHASIZED THAT THE MDC PRESIDENT HAS 
RESISTED AND WOULD CONTINUE TO RESIST CALLS FROM MDC SUPPORTERS TO 
RESORT TO VIOLENCE AGAINST THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT.  THE GOZ, MATONGO 
SAID, WAS TWISTING TSVANGIRAI'S WORDS IN ORDER TO HAVE AN EXCUSE TO 
CRACK DOWN ON HIM AND THE OPPOSITION PARTY. 
 
COMMENT 
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4.  (C) AT THE SEPTEMBER 30 RALLY, TSVANGIRAI APPARENTLY GOT CAUGHT 
UP IN THE EXCITEMENT OF THE MOMENT AND SAID SOMETHING THAT COULD BE 
MISINTERPRETED BY THOSE WHO SEEK TO DO SO.  ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO 
BELIEVE THAT TSVANGIRAI IS COMMITTED TO THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS AND 
THE CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT THROUGH PEACEFUL, DEMOCRATIC MEANS, HE HAS 
GIVEN A GOVERNMENT SALIVATING FOR A CHANCE TO LOCK HIM UP AN EXCUSE 
TO DO SO WITH A VENEER OF LEGALITY.  POLICE SAY THEY ARE STUDYING 
HIS SPEECH TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS JUSTIFICATION FOR BRINGING 
CHARGES AGAINST HIM.  MEANWHILE, WE WILL STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH WITH 
THE MDC AS THE PARTY DEVELOPS ITS PLANS AND TIMETABLE FOR MASS 
ACTION.  ADDITIONALLY, THE AMBASSADOR WILL CONTINUE TO URGE 
TSVANGIRAI TO ACT IN A MEASURED WAY AND EXERCISE RESTRAINT.  END 
 
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COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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