US embassy cable - 00HARARE5464

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005464 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE CLOSER TO PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC 
 
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REFTEL: HARARE 5137 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL M. IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  AT A SEPTEMBER 26 FAREWELL LUNCH WITH 
THE DCM, THE MFA'S UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID 
HAMADZIRIPI REPORTED THAT ZIMBABWE IS CLOSE TO 
WITHDRAWING UP TO HALF ITS TROOPS FROM THE DROC. 
HAMADZIRIPI DESCRIBED KABILA'S BRIEF TRIP TO LUANDA ON 
SEPTEMBER 24 AS A LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT TO GET ANGOLA TO 
FILL ZIMBABWE'S SHOES.  THE POLITICAL PRESSURE IN 
ZIMBABWE TO WITHDRAW HAS BECOME TOO GREAT FOR MUGABE TO 
IGNORE, ACCORDING TO THE UNDERSECRETARY.  HE JUST 
RETURNED FROM A WEEK-LONG TRIP TO KINSHASA, WHERE HE 
WILL SOON MANAGE A NEW OFFICE STAFFED BY DROC ALLIES 
DESIGNED TO COORDINATE PEACE EFFORTS IN THE REGION.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON SEPTEMBER 26, DCM AND POLOFF HOSTED A 
FAREWELL LUNCH FOR UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID 
HAMADZIRIPI, WHO HAS BEEN ONE OF THE EMBASSY'S MOST 
FRANK AND STRAIGHTFORWARD CONTACTS IN ZIMBABWE'S MFA. 
HAMADZIRIPI IS BEING TRANSFERRED TO KINSHASA (APPARENTLY 
SOMEWHAT AGAINST HIS WILL) TO MANAGE AN OFFICE BEING SET 
UP BY THE DROC'S ALLIES TO OVERSEE THE PEACE PROCESS 
THERE.  THE OFFICE WILL BE HEADED BY A ZIMBABWEAN 
"SPECIAL ASSISTANT" WITH AMBASSADORIAL RANK (WHOM 
HAMADZIRIPI DID NOT NAME), WITH HAMADZIRIPI IN CHARGE OF 
DAY-TO-DAY MANAGEMENT.  REPRESENTATIVES FROM ANGOLA, 
NAMIBIA, AND DROC WILL BE POSTED TO THE OFFICE; 
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CONGOLESE WILL FILL THE ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF POSITIONS. 
 
3.  (C) ONE OF THE OFFICE'S FIRST MISSIONS WILL 
APPARENTLY BE TO OVERSEE THE WITHDRAWAL OF UP TO HALF OF 
ZIMBABWE'S 12,000 TROOPS IN THE DROC.  HAMADZIRIPI 
STATED THAT ZIMBABWE BEGAN CONTEMPLATING THE WITHDRAWAL 
TWO MONTHS AGO, AND IT HAS BEGUN THE NECESSARY PLANNING. 
HE REPORTED THAT COMMANDER OF THE ZIMBABWE DEFENSE 
FORCES (ZDF) VITALIS ZVINAVASHE HAD JUST COMPLETED A 
TRIP TO KINSHASA IN WHICH HE INFORMED KABILA THAT 
ZIMBABWE IS REALLY WITHDRAWING.  HE EMPHASIZED THAT THE 
WITHDRAWAL WOULD PROCEED WHETHER OR NOT ANGOLA IS ABLE 
TO STEP INTO THE ZIMBABWEAN ARMY'S POSITIONS. 
HAMADZIRIPI STATED THAT KABILA WENT TO LUANDA SEPTEMBER 
24 TO CONVINCE ANGOLA TO FILL ZIMBABWE'S SHOES, BUT DID 
NOT RECEIVE MANY ENCOURAGING SIGNS.  ALTHOUGH ZIMBABWE 
WOULD PROBABLY COMPLETE ITS PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL BEFORE 
THE TWO-MONTH EXTENSION ON THE MONUC OBSERVER FORCE IS 
UP, HAMADZIRIPI ITERATED THAT THE PRESENCE OF ZIMBABWE'S 
FORCES WAS NOT LINKED TO THE MONUC DEPLOYMENT.  ZIMBABWE 
HAS THE FREEDOM TO ROTATE ITS FORCES OR CHANGE THEIR 
NUMBERS, JUST AS UGANDA HAS DONE, WITHOUT AFFECTING ITS 
COMMITMENT TO KABILA'S GOVERNMENT, "EXCEPT WE'LL REALLY 
DO IT," HE ADDED WRYLY. 
 
4.  (C) HAMADZIRIPI OPINED THAT THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL 
PRESSURE FOR A WITHDRAWAL WAS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR 
MUGABE TO IGNORE.  THE UNDERSECRETARY BELIEVED IT WAS 
IMPORTANT FOR MUGABE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN 
THIS AREA BEFORE THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THUS 
REMOVE IT AS A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CAMPAIGN ISSUE. 
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(NOTE: FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI RECENTLY REVEALED 
IN PARLIAMENT THAT ZIMBABWE HAD SPENT US$200 MILLION ON 
ITS DROC DEPLOYMENT SINCE THE WAR BEGAN.  A SEPTEMBER 26 
FRONT PAGE ARTICLE IN THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" 
REPORTED THAT KINSHASA OWES ZIMBABWE ARMY TRAINERS 
US$800,000 IN BACK PAY.  END NOTE.)  WITH A PARTIAL 
WITHDRAWAL, THE GOZ IS ALSO DETERMINED TO SEND KABILA A 
MESSAGE THAT IT WILL NO LONGER TOLERATE FOOT-DRAGGING ON 
PEACE EFFORTS AND THAT IT IS SERIOUS ABOUT DISENGAGING 
FROM THE DROC. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT: HAMADZIRIPI HAS PROVED TO BE A VERY 
RELIABLE POINT MAN FOR THE EMBASSY ON ZIMBABWE'S 
INVOLVEMENT IN THE DROC, AND IT WOULD BE SURPRISING TO 
FIND HIS REPLACEMENT AS OPEN AND STRAIGHTFORWARD.  (HE 
HINTED THAT HIS UNNAMED SUCCESSOR'S ACCESS TO FOREIGN 
MINISTER MUDENGE IS NOT NEARLY AS GOOD AS HIS OWN.)  WE 
CAN BELIEVE HIM WHEN HE SAYS THE GOZ IS PREPARING TO 
WITHDRAW FROM THE DROC.  HIS REASONING TRACKS WELL WITH 
DEVELOPMENTS AND WHAT OTHER SOURCES HAVE BEEN TELLING 
US.  ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT MENTION IT, EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, 
SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE AND MUGABE'S RIGHT-HAND MAN IN THE 
DROC, TOLD US HE WAS VISITING KINSHASA DURING THE SAME 
WEEK AS HAMADZIRIPI, PRESUMABLY TO APPLY PRESSURE ON 
KABILA TO ABIDE BY LUSAKA (SEE REFTEL).  THE GOZ IS 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3007 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-00   DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00 
        /009W 
                  ------------------8A98A2  271612Z /38 
O 271613Z SEP 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7217 
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005464 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/10 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, MOPS, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE CLOSER TO PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  05464  02 OF 02  271612Z 
CERTAINLY MAKING CLEAR TO KINSHASA THAT ITS PATIENCE IS 
WEARING THIN.  EVEN A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DROC 
WOULD HELP PLUG THE DISASTROUS LEAK IN THE GOZ'S SINKING 
FINANCIAL SHIP AND SEND A STRONG SIGNAL TO DOMESTIC AND 
FOREIGN OBSERVERS ALIKE THAT THE DROC DRAIN ON ZIMBABWE 
WILL COME TO AN END SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. 
 
6.  (C) DAO COMMENT: THE WITHDRAWAL OF HALF OF 
ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS CURRENTLY IN THE DROC SOUNDS CORRECT, 
BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DONE OVER A SIX- TO 12-MONTH 
TIMEFRAME.   BEFORE ZIMBABWE RETURNS ITS TROOPS FROM THE 
DROC, THERE WILL NEED TO BE AN APPARATUS IN PLACE TO 
OVERSEE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC INTERESTS (MINING AND 
FORESTRY CONCESSIONS, FOR EXAMPLE).  ONE OPTION BEING 
CONSIDERED IS TO RETIRE THE ZDF'S TROOPS IN THE DROC 
FROM THE MILITARY AND GIVE THEM SECURITY JOBS TO PROTECT 
ZIMBABWE'S DROC CONCESSIONS.  THIS WOULD ACCOMPLISH TWO 
MAIN OBJECTIVES:  FIRST, TO HAVE A FORCE STILL IN THE 
DROC TO PROTECT ZIMBABWE'S INTERESTS, AND SECOND, TO 
ALLOW THE OVERALL MILITARY STRUCTURE TO BE DOWNSIZED. 
ZIMBABWE IS LOOKING AT DOWNSIZING THE ZDF'S CURRENT 
FORCE OF 34,000 TO 25,000.   ADDITIONALLY, BRINGING A 
PORTION OF THE MILITARY BACK FROM THE DROC WOULD ENABLE 
PRESIDENT MUGABE TO REINFORCE DISTRICTS THAT ZANU-PF 
LOST IN THE JUNE ELECTIONS.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN TO 
ZANU-PF ARE THE CITIES OF BULAWAYO, KWEKWE, AND MUTARE, 
WHOSE GARRISONS ARE VIRTUALLY EMPTY FROM THE DROC 
DEPLOYMENT.  ALSO, WE WOULD SPECULATE THAT THE SPECIAL 
ASSISTANT WITH AMBASSADORIAL RANK WHOM HAMADZIRIPI DID 
NOT NAME COULD BE LTG CHIWENGA, CURRENTLY THE ZIMBABWE 
NATIONAL ARMY COMMANDER; HE IS RUMORED TO BE RETIRING 
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SOON FOR AN AMBASSADORIAL APPOINTMENT.  LTG CHIWENGA HAS 
BEEN INVOLVED IN THE DROC FROM THE BEGINNING AND WOULD 
MAKE A GOOD WATCHDOG FOR ALL THOSE WHO HAVE BUSINESS 
INTERESTS THERE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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