US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO2191

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 002191 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA, DRL/IRF 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  12-29-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, SOCI, PINR, ELTN, CE 
SUBJECT:  Political Gleanings:  President hits out at PM; 
Questions re President's term in office; Funeral of monk 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 241448Z Dec 03 
-      (B) Colombo 2179, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) This edition of Political Gleanings for 
Sri Lanka reviews the following: 
 
-- In more bad news for cohabitation, President 
Kumaratunga lashes out at Prime Minister in interview. 
 
-- Troubling questions arise as to the length of the 
President's term in office. 
 
-- Muslim leader Rauf Hakeem, who was unhurt, said not 
to be the target of bomb attack in the east. 
 
-- Despite concerns about violence, funeral of extremist 
Buddhist monk takes place without much incident. 
 
-- Three more church attacks amid continued discussion 
of draft anti-conversion law. 
 
-- In welcome news for peace process, train route to key 
city in the east recommences. 
 
============================================= = 
President stokes Cohabitation Flames some more 
============================================= = 
 
2.  (SBU) In a December 28 radio interview, President 
Chandrika Kumaratunga lashed out at her bitter 
cohabitation rival, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. 
She asserted that the PM, in an effort to shore up his 
political support, had created an "imaginary 
constitutional crisis" following her November 4 takeover 
of three ministries (Defense, Interior, Mass 
Communications).  The PM was trying to "justify the 
failure of the peace process" by attacking her, she 
said, adding that the peace process had been "stalled" 
for months in any case.  Kumaratunga also called the 
PM's claim that he could not continue managing the peace 
process without full control of the Defense Ministry "a 
joke."  Wrapping up, she said she supported peace 
negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, as neither she nor 
her People's Alliance (PA) party wanted a return to war. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  There has been no reaction yet from 
the Prime Minister's Office to the President's hard- 
edged remarks.  There is little doubt, however, that the 
PM and his aides will not be pleased by her diatribe. 
The PM's usual style is to remain above the fray, but 
our guess is that one of his advisers will hit back at 
her.  The net impact of the President's remarks will 
probably be to make a grim cohabitation situation even 
grimmer.  END COMMENT. 
 
========================================== 
Questions as to length of President's Term 
========================================== 
 
4.  (SBU) A spate of recent press pieces has sparked 
questions about the exact date when President 
Kumaratunga's tenure in office ends.  It has long been 
assumed that her second and final term in office ends in 
late 2005.  Recent press articles, however, indicate 
that the President and her advisers may believe that her 
term in office ends in late 2006, one year later than 
thought.  The matter is confusing, but when the 
President unexpectedly called for presidential elections 
in 1999, it was a year prior to the end of her first 
six-year term (1994-2000).  After she won the December 
1999 election, it was thought she was mandated another 
six year term from that point on (a term that would end 
in late 2005).  Now, there are indications that she may 
believe she is entitled to a full 12 years in office 
from late 1994 on based on the fact that she won two 
presidential elections.  There are also reports that 
Chief Justice Sarath Silva (a very close ally of the 
President's) may have quietly sworn her in at some point 
in 2000, with the aim of giving her legal cover to serve 
until late 2006. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  This whole matter is very murky -- but 
potentially highly problematic.  It appears that the 
President and her supporters may be sending up a trial 
balloon to see what the reaction would be if she tried 
to stay around until 2006.  If that is the case, the 
results are in:  it would spark an immense controversy 
and no doubt bedevil Sri Lankan politics for months on 
end.  The PM, for example, wants to run for president 
and would not support any effort that would allow 
Kumaratunga to push out her term in office.  All that 
said, given her close relationship with the Chief 
Justice, it is possible she could make a legal argument 
that would hold up in court.  Norwegian Ambassador 
Brattskar told the Ambassador that President Kumaratunga 
had at one point mentioned to him that she might have 
three years left in her term.  END COMMENT. 
 
========================================== 
Muslim Minister not injured in Bomb Attack 
========================================== 
 
6.  (SBU) On December 25, a small bomb was thrown at the 
residence of Najmudeen (one name only), a local official 
of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) in Kalmunai, a 
town in Ampara District in Sri Lanka's Eastern Province. 
No one was injured in the attack, although Najmudeen's 
car was heavily damaged.  There are reports that Rauf 
Hakeem, the SLMC leader and Minister of Ports and 
Shipping, was visiting with Najmudeen at the time of the 
attack, or may have been nearby.  Police have told 
Mission that they do not/not believe that the attack was 
meant as an assassination attempt on Hakeem, but rather 
may have involved a private grudge of some sort 
involving Najmudeen.  No one has been arrested in the 
incident. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Hakeem, a moderate, has been a strong 
supporter of PM Wickremesinghe and the peace process, 
and -- because of that -- has many political opponents 
both inside and outside of the SLMC.  Violence is 
endemic in the troubled east, but it seems that he was 
not the target of the bomb attack.  If something 
happened to Hakeem, it is unclear who would take over 
the SLMC:  Hakeem himself only recently took over 
(shaky) control of the party following the death of its 
founder, M.H.M. Ashraff, in a helicopter crash in late 
2000.  END COMMENT. 
 
================================== 
Funeral of Extremist Buddhist Monk 
================================== 
 
8.  (SBU) Despite concerns about violence on the margins 
of the December 24 funeral of radical Buddhist monk 
Gangodawila Soma Thera (see Ref A), the event passed 
with only minor incident.  The hours-long cremation 
ceremony in Colombo was relatively lightly attended, 
perhaps because of the worries about violence.  On the 
margins of the ceremony, there was a small scuffle 
between a mob of mourners and several people who were 
allegedly distributing pamphlets critical of Soma Thera. 
Police fired tear gas and some police vehicles were 
damaged in the ensuing melee. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Per Ref A, in the lead-up to the 
funeral ceremony, there had been significant concern 
that extremist Buddhists might use the occasion to 
attack Christians and other minorities.  That did not 
happen and, for that, the President deserves great 
credit for reacting to the concerns by ordering security 
forces to closely monitor the situation.  During the 
funeral ceremony, however, (as was done before via a 
poster campaign) a number of speakers -- without any 
evidence whatsoever -- made comments that implicitly 
blamed Christians for the death of Soma Thera.  There is 
little doubt that those accusations have helped to 
further inflame the religious freedom situation in Sri 
Lanka, which has been taking some hits of late (see 
below).  END COMMENT. 
 
============================================= ====== 
More Church Attacks; Latest on Anti-Conversion Bill 
============================================= ====== 
 
10.  (SBU) Attacks on Christian churches have continued 
in the past week.  Two churches in the Meegoda area, 
some 20 miles east of Colombo, were attacked on 
December 28 by unknown assailants.  The Our Lady of 
Lourdes Roman Catholic church and the evangelical 
Meegoda Christian Center both suffered damage in the 
attacks, but there were no injuries.  The Meegoda 
attacks followed the December 20 burning of the Jesus 
Lives Evangelical Ministry building in Kurunegala, a 
town located roughly 60 miles northeast of Colombo. 
Police are investigating all three incidents and there 
have been no arrests as of yet. 
 
11.  (SBU) In a related development, the media are 
quoting Hindu Affairs Minister T. Maheswaran as stating 
that draft anti-conversion legislation will soon be 
presented to Parliament for a vote.  Per Ref B, the 
draft bill, which prohibits the illegal conversion of 
Hindus by "inducement" or other means, has been under 
review in the Attorney General's office for several 
months now.  Buddhist Affairs Minister W.J.M. 
Lokabandura has also been quoted in the press as stating 
that the draft legislation will soon be brought before 
Parliament. 
 
12.  (C) COMMENT:  The latest attacks on churches add to 
the long list of such incidents that have taken place in 
recent months.  As for Maheswaran's comments, Christian 
Affairs Minister John Amaratunga recently indicated to 
the DCM that the proposed anti-conversion legislation 
was bottled up and there was little change of it moving 
forward (see Ref B).  That said, the proposed 
legislation seems to enjoy significant support:  In a 
recent conversation with the Ambassador, for example, 
Roman Catholic Archbishop Oswald Gomis -- in line with a 
recent statement by local bishops -- expressed his 
opposition to so-called "unethical conversions."  Gomis' 
comment may be a hint that the Catholic Church does not 
plan to take a strong front-line stand against the draft 
anti-conversion legislation.   Along with similar 
comments made by Hindu and Buddhist leaders, Gomis' 
remarks tend to indicate that a wide swath of Sri 
Lankans are uncomfortable with conversion efforts by 
Evangelical Christians.  END COMMENT. 
 
============================================= 
Train service to key Eastern City Recommences 
============================================= 
 
13.  (U) Turning to some welcome news, rail service to 
the eastern city of Batticaloa recommenced on 
December 23.  The service to Batticaloa had been 
suspended for seven years following a Tamil Tiger- 
instigated bomb attack on the tracks in 1996.  With the 
tacit agreement of the Tigers, the GSL began the long 
process of rebuilding the damaged sections of the track 
right after the conclusion of the 2002 ceasefire 
agreement. 
 
14.  (C) COMMENT:  Although the cohabitation impasse in 
Colombo continues to work to postpone GSL-Tiger talks, 
the peace process continues apace in an on-the-ground 
sense.  This is exemplified by the restarting of the 
train service to Batticaloa and the Tigers' continued 
cooperation in keeping key roads open, such as the "A-9" 
route to Jaffna.  Train service to Jaffna remains 
defunct, however, and there are currently no plans to 
begin the hugely expensive reconstruction of the largely 
destroyed track.  END COMMENT. 
 
15.  (U) Minimize considered. 
LUNSTEAD