US embassy cable - 00HARARE5460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5,6 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MORGAN TSVANGIRAI INFORMS BRITISH HIGH 
COMMISSION OF MASS ACTION PLANS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05460  01 OF 02  271458Z 
1. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 27 THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION HERE 
SHARED WITH US THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE, CLASSIFIED 
"CONFIDENTIAL" AND SENT SEPTEMBER 22, CONCERNING MDC- 
SPONSORED MASS ACTION IN ZIMBABWE.  PLEASE PROTECT THE 
SOURCE.  MARK LYALL GRANT, REFERRED TO IN PARA. 2, IS A 
SENIOR OFFICER IN THE FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE'S 
AFRICA DEPARTMENT. 
 
BEGIN TEXT: 
 
SUMMARY 
 
MDC OPPOSITION PARTY PREPARING FOR MASS ACTION NEXT 
MONTH.  PROBABLY LONG-RUNNING GENERAL STRIKE. 
MEMBERSHIP BEING PREPARED THROUGH MPS' OUTREACH 
MEETINGS.  FORMAL NOTICE WILL BE DELIVERED AT MASS RALLY 
ON SEPTEMBER 30.  PARTY LEADERS ANTICIPATE VIOLENT 
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE. 
 
DETAIL 
 
WITH LYALL GRANT (VISITING) I HAD SEPARATE MEETINGS ON 
SEPTEMBER 20 AND 21 WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI 
AND HIS DEPUTY, GIBSON SIBANDA, WHO IS ALSO PARTY LEADER 
IN PARLIAMENT.  OUR CALLS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON THE POLICE 
RAIDS ON THE PARTY OFFICES AND THE STATEMENT BY HOME 
AFFAIRS MINISTER NKOMO THAT WEAPONS AND INCRIMINATING 
PAPERS HAD BEEN FOUND. 
 
WE ASKED THEM TO EXPAND ON TSVANGIRAI'S PASSING 
REFERENCES TO MASS ACTION IN HIS REMARKS TO THE PRESS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05460  01 OF 02  271458Z 
AFTER NKOMO'S STATEMENT.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PRESSURE 
FROM THE MEMBERSHIP AND THE PUBLIC AT LARGE FOR DIRECT 
ACTION WAS HUGE.  THE GOVERNMENT'S REFUSAL TO BUDGE FROM 
PRE-ELECTION POSITIONS HAD CREATED ANGER AND 
FRUSTRATION.  MUGABE HAD PUSHED THE PEOPLE TO THE POINT 
WHERE MASS ACTION WAS "NOT NEGOTIABLE". 
 
PLANNING WAS WELL ADVANCED.  THE CORE FEATURE WOULD BE A 
SNAP GENERAL STRIKE.  MDC LEADERS ARE STILL UNDECIDED ON 
ITS DURATION, BUT ONE OPTION DESCRIBED BY SIBANDA WAS TO 
KEEP IT GOING UNTIL MUGABE IS FORCED OUT OF OFFICE.  THE 
PLAN IS FOR ALL MDC MEMBERS AND LIKE-MINDED PARTIES TO 
WORK AS NORMAL UNTIL LUNCHTIME ON A SPECIFIED DAY, 
RETURN TO THEIR HOMES AND NOT COME BACK. 
 
NEITHER TSVANGIRAI NOR SIBANDA MENTIONED A DATE, BUT THE 
MESSAGE WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN PLAIN TERMS AT CROSS- 
COUNTRY RALLIES TO BE HELD ON SEPTEMBER 30 TO MARK THE 
MDC'S FIRST ANNIVERSARY.  THE STRIKE WILL BEGIN WITHIN 
ONE OR TWO WEEKS OF THAT EVENT.  TSVANGIRAI HAS 
CANCELLED A VISIT TO BRUSSELS PLANNED FOR THE FIRST WEEK 
OF OCTOBER. 
 
MDC MPS AND OFFICIALS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALERTING 
CONSTITUENTS TO THE PLANS FOR MASS ACTION.  WITH 
PARLIAMENT IN RECESS SINCE YESTERDAY, THEY WILL BE 
STEPPING UP THEIR ACTIVITIES NATIONWIDE IN PREPARATION 
FOR SEPTEMBER 30. 
 
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE STRIKE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED 
BY PLANNED RALLIES AND DEMONSTRATIONS, BUT SPONTANEOUS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  05460  01 OF 02  271458Z 
ACTION, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH-DENSITY AREAS IS NOT 
UNLIKELY.  TSVANGIRAI AND SIBANDA BELIEVE THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT WILL CRACK DOWN ON THE MOVEMENT WITH ALL THE 
MEANS AT THEIR DISPOSAL - VIOLENCE, TEARGAS, ARRESTS, 
THE WHOLE PANOPLY OF THE POLICE STATE.  TSVANGIRAI IS 
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL NOT BREAK THE MOMENTUM.  HE 
SAID THE ACTION WOULD BE MASSIVE AND COUNTRYWIDE: THE 
SECURITY FORCES SIMPLY DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO 
CONTAIN IT.  HE ADDED THAT ONCE THE ACTION HAD BEGUN, IT 
WAS UNLIKELY THAT HE WOULD BE ABLE TO CONTROL IT. 
 
COMMENT 
 
THE MASS ACTION AS DESCRIBED BY THE TWO MDC LEADERS HAS 
BEEN IN GESTATION FOR SOME TIME.  THEIR ACCOUNT CONFIRMS 
THE REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING OF MDC PLANNING 
SESSIONS AND WELL-ATTENDED PREPARATORY MEETINGS IN THE 
HARARE CONSTITUENCIES.  THE STRATEGY IS A RESPONSE TO 
THE INCREASING ANGER OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC TO THE SEVERE 
HARDSHIP OF LIFE IN ZIMBABWE AND THEIR FRUSTRATION AT 
WHAT THEY SEE AS THE GOVERNMENT'S REFUSAL TO BUDGE FROM 
THE POLICIES AND ATTITUDES WHICH BROUGHT THIS ABOUT. 
 
TSVANGIRAI CAN EXPECT MASSIVE SUBSTANTIAL IN THE CITIES 
 
SIPDIS 
AND MATABELELAND, BUT A KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE RESPONSE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2527 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05460  02 OF 02  271458Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOEE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /008W 
                  ------------------8A8DFD  271459Z /38 
O 271459Z SEP 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7211 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5,6 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MORGAN TSVANGIRAI INFORMS BRITISH HIGH 
COMMISSION OF MASS ACTION PLANS 
 
IN THE RURAL AREAS.  HE AND SIBANDA DESCRIBED MASS 
TURNOUTS AT RECENT MDC RALLIES IN COMMUNITIES WHICH WERE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05460  02 OF 02  271458Z 
SERIOUSLY HIT BY PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE AND RETURNED 
ZANU-PF MS.  TSVANGIRAI HAS NO DOUBT THAT THE CALL FOR 
ACTION WILL SWEEP THE COUNTRY. 
 
IT IS HIGH RISK.  MUGABE'S INSTINCT WILL BE TO RESPOND 
WITH THE USUAL BATTERIES OF RIOT POLICE SUPPORTED BY THE 
MILITARY.  HE WILL WISH TO PUT DOWN THE ACTION IN ITS 
EARLY STAGES AND PROBABLY USE IT AS A PRETEXT TO SEIZE 
THE MDC LEADERSHIP.  AN IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR HIM IS 
WHETHER SUCH A TACTIC WILL ALSO REVERSE THE GROUNDSWELL 
AGAINST HIM WITHIN ZANU-PF OR WHETHER POTENTIAL 
DISSIDENTS AND CHALLENGERS WILL RALLY BEHIND HIM IN THE 
FACE OF A COMMON THREAT. 
 
WE NEED TO CONSIDER HOW TO RESPOND TO A POSSIBLY 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CIVIL STRIFE AND ASSOCIATED 
REPRESSION.  IN THE MEANTIME WE ARE REDRAFTING OUR 
TRAVEL ADVICE TO ALERT VISITORS TO POSSIBLE TROUBLE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEPTEMBER 30 RALLIES. 
 
END TEXT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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