US embassy cable - 03SANTODOMINGO7490

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 007490 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR, PGOV 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: PRD PRIMARY SLIPS TO 2004 
 
REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 7395 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 7132 
 
1. (SBU) Following is number 11 in our Dominican presidential 
election series: 
 
PRD PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY: SHOW POSTPONED AGAIN, CAST UNCERTAIN 
 
As foreseen in Ref A, President Mejia's three challengers in 
the PRD presidential primary that had been rescheduled for 
December 21 pulled out, amid charges that the President had 
tampered with the party's membership roster and was using 
public resources to campaign and buy votes.  Mejia published 
a letter December 17 firmly dismissing his three challengers' 
demand that he quit the race for the PRD nomination (see text 
below).  On December 18, the organizing committee for the 
primary announced it would be postponed until January 18, and 
Mejia quickly agreed to the new date.  But one of our 
contacts has confirmed that Mejia's PPH faction decided not 
to allow the challengers to pool their primary votes against 
his and or accept a 50-percent-plus-1 majority requirement 
for the winner, as previously agreed. 
 
These moves sent the challengers -- Vice President Milagros 
Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Secretary Rafael "Fello" Subervi, and 
Enmanuel Esquea -- scrambling for an alternative game plan. 
Late on November 18 they announced formation of a committee 
of nine advisers -- three for each pre-candidate -- to devise 
a method for choosing a single condidate among them.  They 
deferred any reconsideration of their decision not to run in 
the primary with Mejia.  Government-owned daily "Listin 
Diario" suggested the three might hold their own separate 
primary.  A Subervi adviser told us the three would remain 
aloof from the Mejia primary and select their own candidate 
among themselves, based on a polling sample of PRD members. 
Our contact also suggested Congress might change the 
electoral law to permit a political party to field more than 
one presidential candidate. 
 
Subervi met this week with PRD party president Hatuey De 
Camps, who was nominated by a rump PRD primary December 7 
(Ref B).  An adviser to Subervi told us an effort was 
underway to convince De Camps to renounce his own anti-Mejia 
candidacy and join forces with the three. 
 
Meanwhile, the Central Election Board (JCE) continued meeting 
daily to decide which of the two primary elections -- De 
Camps' on December 7 or Mejia's now postponed until January 
-- was legitimately convened according to the PRD's statutes. 
 The JCE is examining documentation submitted in support of 
both sides and his publicly promised a decision before 
Christmas.  A rumored possible way out of this politically 
thorny issue for the JCE judges:  Declare both primaries null 
and void, and force the PRD's scrapping presidential 
contenders to reconsider their behavior. 
 
The PRD's main foe in the May 16 election, former President 
Leonel Fernandez (PLD), appeared stronger than ever against 
the fragmented PRD.  A preference poll of the general 
electorate released December 19 gave him 63 percent versus 15 
percent for any PRD candidate including Mejia. 
 
2. (U) Following is our informal translation of President 
Mejia's reply to the three challengers: 
 
(Begin text) 
 
Santo Domingo de Guzman 
December 16, 2003 
 
Comrades 
Milagros Ortiz Bosch, 
Rafael Subervi Bonilla, 
Emmanuel Esquea Guerrero, 
 
Distinguished Comrades: 
 
I received and read attentively your communication of 
yesterday.  My decision to opt for the Dominican 
Revolutionary Party's grass roots and seek the presidential 
candidacy for the 2004 elections has been the result of my 
sincere conviction that I have the determination, the popular 
support and the commitment to govern on behalf of the needy 
majority of this country, and not exclusively for the 
minority that has everything. 
 
My aspiration has a legal basis in the General Statutes of 
the Party, which do not prohibit presidential re-election, 
and in our Constitution's article 49, which expressly permits 
it. 
 
Convinced of the democratic practices that our unforgettable 
leader Dr. Jose Francisco Pena Gomez taught us, I have 
insisted that the Party's supporters among the people should 
decide freely, without back-room deals. 
 
Despite the many intemperate attacks against me, in order to 
show tolerance, democratic spirit and party unity, I reached 
an agreement with you November 12 to hold a Convention in 
which you could pool your votes against me -- all against one. 
 
In addition, the agreement requires me to obtain more than 50 
percent of the votes, knowing that the General Statutes of 
the PRD stipulate a simple majority for internal elections. 
 
I also agreed to allow your delegates to the Primary 
Organizing Committees and the polling sites to be selected 
individually, even through I knew that they would act in a 
bloc against my candidacy. 
 
Then I unhesitatingly agreed to your request to postpone the 
Primary which had originally been scheduled for last Sunday, 
December 14. 
 
The arguments in your letter focuse on the printed membership 
list for the Primary. 
 
As you will recall, niether I nor my supporters wanted to add 
new voters to the membership list, but I went along with that 
to please you. 
 
The checking of the list is an essentially technical task, 
which should be managed by the responsible and prestigious 
Primary Organizing Committee.  From the beginning I 
instructed our technicians to cooperate with you on this, 
with the understanding that the audit of the list was 
approved by the technical representatives of the 
pre-candidates and accepted as correct and valid for the 
primary process.  The printing of the membership list in the 
next few hours will be essential for the primary to be held 
on Sunday, December 21. 
 
I don't know whether you fully understand the situation of 
the country:  we are faced with a conspiracy of special 
interest groups that want to block the modernization of our 
economy, the financial system, the establishment of a social 
security system, democratization of housing, and equitable 
distribution of public expenditures: measures that benefit 
the poor, small account holders, the entire Nation.  For this 
reason they want to oust the PRD, which is the only party 
that can ensure governability. 
 
It was this entire challenge that led me to run for 
re-election: If I don't defend the performance of my 
administration, which is confronting those special interests, 
no one will defend it. 
 
I'm telling you this because you don't seem to be aware of it. 
 
You've cast the debate in the party in terms of re-election 
or no re-election, and not in terms of people's real 
interest: to be able to work, advance, free themselves from 
the dictates of a powerful minority that wants to enslave 
them. 
 
You don't appear to understand. 
 
You ask me to renounce my aspirations; but you say not one 
word about what the country can expect from you to deal with 
the situation that we face: the continuation of a profoundly 
unjust society, in which poverty and misery have reached 
levels incompatible with justice and human dignity. 
 
But you are asking even more of me: that because I'm going to 
win, I should quit. 
 
This is the strangest request I've ever known. 
 
I will not renounce my legitimate rights as a party member 
and under the Constitution. 
 
I will not abdicate the responsibility that I have assumed to 
my followers in the Party. 
 
I intend to continue fulfilling that responsibility. 
 
You may use whichever PRD membership list you find 
appropriate. 
 
The most draconian conditions. 
 
The most inequitable rules. 
 
I'll win because the Party and the Dominican people want 
justice.  Against the power elite, they want justice. 
 
My fraternal greetings. 
 
(Signed) 
Hipolito Mejia 
 
(End text) 
 
 
3. (U) Drafted: Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
 
HERTELL