US embassy cable - 03FRANKFURT10353

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 010353 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, GM 
SUBJECT: CDU CONVENTION DEBACLE IN BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG SETS 
OFF ERWIN TEUFEL SUCCESSION DEBATE 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The December 5-6 Christian Democratic 
(CDU) convention / leadership election in Boeblingen/Baden- 
Wuerttemberg has raised doubts about Minister President 
Erwin Teufel's political future.  Although Teufel was 
reelected with 76 percent of the vote, this was his worst 
showing as CDU party chief and one of the worst of any 
leader in the state's fifty-year history.  A defiant Teufel 
said he does not intend to step down, but the convention 
debacle has put his future in question.  Meanwhile, caucus 
chief Guenther Oettinger and B-W Education Minister Annette 
Schavan are quietly maneuvering to succeed him.  While some 
CDU contacts hope Teufel will hand over power in late 2004, 
others fear a drawn out succession battle will damage the 
CDU in one of its strongholds.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) On the heels of the CDU election victory in the 
2001 state elections, key political observers expected Erwin 
Teufel -- B-W's longest serving minister president -- to 
hand over the reins by 2004, in time to prepare a successor 
for the 2006 elections.  Teufel defied expectations by 
landing a seat at the European constitutional convention, 
launching a multi-year reform of public administration, and 
steadfastly refusing to name a successor.  The media have 
reported on increasing friction within the CDU and coalition 
partner FDP (Free Democrats) over Teufel's autocratic 
management style and unwillingness to make way for a 
successor. 
 
3. (SBU) At the convention, delegates told us they hoped 
Teufel would use his speech to lay the groundwork for the 
next generation of CDU leaders.  Instead, Teufel ended a 
lackluster speech with a promise to lead the party for 
another two years.  Although delegates gave Teufel a 
standing ovation, many refused to support him in the 
subsequent leadership vote.  Accustomed to near 100 percent 
support (two years ago, Teufel was re-elected with 93.7 
percent), Teufel was visibly shocked over his meager result 
of 76.9 percent.  Delegates also "punished" CDU B-W 
Secretary General/Federal Parliamentary Business Manager 
 
SIPDIS 
Volker Kauder (75 percent).  Teufel's poor showing became 
the central theme at the convention and has dominated the 
political scene in B-W since then. 
 
4. (SBU) A shocked Teufel blamed unpopular cutbacks and 
reforms: "He who follows a clear political line has 
enemies."  In a radio interview on December 8, Teufel said 
he had no intention of stepping down and hinted at revenge 
against his detractors: "... a showing like this is not 
possible without people pulling strings in the background." 
 
5. (SBU) Prior to the convention, the B-W CDU had kept the 
succession debate under the carpet.  The two most prominent 
candidates to succeed Teufel -- caucus chief Guenther 
Oettinger and B-W Education Minister Annette Schavan -- are 
positioning themselves for a leadership bid.  At the 
convention, Schavan pledged support for Teufel and attacked 
delegates for using a secret ballot to vent frustration.  In 
press interviews, Oettinger -- whose ambitions are no secret 
-- denied any ill will towards the Minister President but 
refused to condemn the anti-Teufel movement. 
 
6. (SBU) COMMENT:  Teufel's domineering style, recent 
spending cuts and unpopular administrative reforms, as well 
as his refusal to contemplate retirement, have fueled the 
tensions within the party that finally erupted at the 
Boeblingen convention.  Teufel's poor re-election showing 
underscores the retirement issue and leaves the succession 
question unanswered.  Many CDU members hope that Teufel will 
step down in late 2004, when Teufel turns 65 and after 
European/communal elections in June.  Teufel's fighting 
words worry even some supporters, who fear the long-serving 
minister president -- like former chancellor Helmut Kohl -- 
might hang on for too long, damaging the CDU's standing in 
one of its heartlands.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE