US embassy cable - 03ABUJA2183

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NOT SO INSTANT REPLAYS - THREE BY-ELECTIONS TO 
REPLACE APRIL 2003 RESULTS THROWN OUT BY THE COURTS 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR PUBLICATION ON THE 
INTERNET OR INTRANET. 
 
1. Summary: Six months after Nigeria's April/May elections 
for President/VP, National Assembly, Governors and State 
Assemblies, three races will be re-run on December 20 by 
order of election tribunals or the Court of Appeals.  A 
recent State Assembly by-election caused by death of an 
office holder does not bode well for the three re-runs; the 
ruling PDP reportedly won with more votes than were cast for 
all candidates in a very close election in May.  Even if the 
other three replays are conducted with fewer faults than they 
had in April, the faulty April/May elections issue will not 
go away.  End Summary. 
 
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MALUMFASHI - KATSINA STATE 
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2. Malumfashi is a Local Government Area (LGA) in the 
southern part of northern Nigeria's Katsina State, and the 
by-election for a State Assembly seat on November 29 was to 
replace the first winner who died in an automobile accident 
earlier this year.  The ruling PDP won the by-election in a 
landslide, receiving approximately 74,000 votes.  During the 
first election on May 3, however, the PDP won with 53 percent 
of the vote when it received only 35,000 votes out of some 
67,000 votes cast, i.e. the PDP this time more than doubled 
its votes to more than were cast for all candidates in May, 
while the ANPP this time only received around a fifth of what 
it received in May.  The Nigerian media has reported numerous 
complaints by the opposition ANPP regarding the election, 
including PDP thugs barring access to voting sites and 
physically assaulting ANPP agents, and the closing of some 
polling stations after just 30 minutes.  The PDP,s official 
response to these allegations was that the ANPP were just 
poor losers. 
 
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BORNO NORTH 
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3. One of the highlights of the December 20 by-elections will 
be for the Borno North Senate seat in the National Assembly, 
one of only three Senate elections overturned by election 
tribunals so far.  On April 12, PDP Senator Sanusi Daggash 
was declared a winner over ANPP candidate Fati Bulama with a 
victory margin of 118 votes.  Bulama filed with the state 
election tribunal, alleging numerous electoral malpractices. 
In July, the tribunal ruled in favor of Bulama.  Daggash then 
filed suit with the Appeals Court, alleging that candidate 
Bulama had previously been indicted for fraud and was 
ineligible to run for office.  The Appeals Court ruled in 
November that Bulama was ineligible, that Daggash's election 
was tainted by massive irregularities in the voting, and that 
there be a by-election without Bulama as a candidate.  As 
Daggash had originally been declared the winner in April, he 
was sworn in as a Senator in May and served in this capacity 
until December 10, when the Senate's PDP leadership 
intervened to order Daggash to vacate his seat and prepare 
for the election. 
 
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ABUJA 
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4. Abuja's only Senate seat in the National Assembly was also 
overturned by an election tribunal after incumbent PDP 
Senator Isa Maina was originally declared the winner in 
April.  The election tribunal ruled in favor of ANPP 
candidate Ireti Kingibe that several wards were not counted 
in the announced vote.  Maina, who also was sworn in as 
Senator in May and maintained the seat until told to vacate 
on December 10, filed with the Court of Appeals.  The Court 
refused to overturn the first tribunal's decision and 
scheduled a re-run in the disputed wards for December 20. 
Only PDP and ANPP will be on the ballot, as the court ruled 
that all the other parties received too few votes in the 
un-contested wards for the contested wards to make a 
difference.  The Independent National Electoral Commission 
(INEC) has announced that it will not use "ad-hoc staff," 
locals hired on the spot to administer an election, due to 
the complaints that they usually tended to be the staff of 
political parties and kingpins seeking to use their INEC 
positions to influence the election. 
 
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KADUNA 
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5. In an upcoming by-election in Zaria in Kaduna State, also 
scheduled for December 20, the Appeals Court disqualified the 
ANPP candidate who was originally declared the winner.  INEC 
has interpreted the ruling to mean that no candidate from the 
ANPP should be allowed to contest the by-election.  After 
protests from the party, INEC announced that the ANPP must 
get an official clarification from the Appeals Court 
regarding the language of its ruling before they will be 
allowed to contest.  To date, the Appeals Court has not done 
so. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. The GON announced that more than half of all the positions 
elected in April/May were contested at the tribunals.  More 
than 85 percent of the suits were thrown out by the tribunals 
for technical reasons, such as a typo in the address of the 
lawyer for one side.  Six months later, this handful that 
survived processing by the courts will renew interest in the 
problems of the April/May elections instead of putting those 
issues to bed -- even if the three by-elections are conducted 
in an exemplary manner. 
MEECE