US embassy cable - 03HARARE2443

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. DELISI, M. RAYNOR 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SA, ZI, Zimbabwe South African Relations 
SUBJECT: MBEKI VISIT REKINDLES TALKS ON TALKS 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 2364 (B) HARARE 2313 (C) HARARE 2259 
 
     (D) HARARE 2124 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Win Dayton under Section 1.5(b)(d) 
 
1.  (C) MDC Secretary for Presidential Affairs Gandi 
Mudzingwa on December 19 briefed poloff on South African 
President Mbeki's 20-minute December 18 meeting with MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai and Secretary General Welshman 
Ncube.  According to Mudzingwa, Mbeki told the party leaders 
at the end of his his visit to Harare that President Mugabe 
had surprised him by admitting that he was unaware of details 
on how far informal intra-party talks had progressed.  Mugabe 
added that, regardless of the progress of such talks, it was 
time to wrap them up and to proceed to a formal dialogue 
between the parties.  Gandi reported that Ncube was to meet 
at a yet-to-be-determined date with Minister of Legal, 
Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Patrick Chinamasa to work 
out an agenda and timetable for formal talks.  Gandi would 
not predict when formal talks would start, if ever, noting 
that ZANU-PF had raised false expectations on talks before. 
Without a date certain or confidence-building measures from 
ZANU-PF, the MDC would have to remain skeptical on ruling 
party intentions.  He credited international and domestic 
pressure with Mbeki's visit, which he characterized as 
potentially constructive. 
 
2.  (C) Government-controlled media, which subordinated 
coverage of the Mbeki visit to the Reserve Bank's monetary 
policy announcement (septel), highlighted historical ties 
between the ANC and ZANU-PF and Mbeki's remarks on the 
countries' shared problems.  Mugabe publicly stated that 
informal inter-party dialogue was ongoing but he could "not 
say accurately where we are".  He said he awaited reports 
from ruling party participants in the talks and that the 
parties could move to formal dialogue "at some stage".  The 
government media noted that Mbeki met briefly with Tsvangirai 
and Ncube.  MDC Spokesman Paul Themba Nyati publicly stated 
that the Mbeki visit yielded no new initiatives. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  If Mbeki's report to the MDC is true, 
Mugabe is keeping to historical form: with dwindling options 
and his back to the wall, he indicates tentative agreement to 
commence to begin to start discussions that theoretically 
could lead to real concessions.  The setting of an agenda 
(notwithstanding numerous prior exchanges on the matter) and 
other intervening developments may yet complicate the setting 
of a date for formal dialogue.  Mugabe's sensitivity to 
international pressure in the wake of the beating his ego 
suffered in the recent CHOGM debacle could be a further 
complicating factor.  Hardline opponents of dialogue, who 
appeared to have the upper hand at ZANU-PF's recent party 
conference (ref A), can be expected to disrupt progress 
toward talks through their control of the state media. 
Although heated rhetoric and atmospherics at the party 
conference appeared to squelch prospects for intra-party 
dialogue, some elements of the party are quietly supportive. 
In any event, neither supporters nor opponents of dialogue 
within the party can be expected to get too far out in front 
of their very engaged leader. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT (CONT'D):  Mbeki's visit and Mugabe's 
tentative indication on formal talks may forestall MDC 
preparations for mass action early next year (ref B). 
Elements of civil society nonetheless may continue to agitate 
against the government independent of MDC influence, 
potentially upsetting the environment for dialogue.  At the 
MDC's annual conference December 20-21, the party leadership 
likely will face some pressure from a restive rank-and-file 
leery of talks, but can be expected to continue its 
commitment to pursue intra-party dialogue unconditionally. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT (CONT'D):  President Mbeki's role and motives 
will be closely scrutinized by all in Harare.  His 
well-publicized statement warning of human rights as a 
pretext to effect regime change shocked many in the 
opposition and civil society here and was trumpeted to 
considerable advantage by the government press.  Both parties 
are keenly aware of the conflicting demands Zimbabwe imposes 
on him in domestic, regional and international  political 
contexts.  For now, maintaining Mbeki's engagement is a sine 
qua non to prospects for the long elusive formal intra-party 
dialogue; both parties recognize the need to play ball as 
long as he does.  Indeed, meaningful engagement by ZANU-PF 
beyond merely coming to the table likely will require 
sustained and perhaps more forceful pressure by Mbeki. 
SULLIVAN