US embassy cable - 03ABUJA2150

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002150 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT:  Electoral Reform and the INEC Seminar 
 
REF: ABUJA 1975 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR PUBLICATION ON THE 
INTERNET OR INTRANET 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) Summary: The INEC Seminar November 27-28 
(septel) highlighted important divisions on possible 
electoral reforms.  There were several less-than- 
serious ideas bruited, but the more important reform 
proposals basically present a choice for the future 
between the Independent National Electoral Commission 
(INEC) becoming more independent or becoming more of an 
instrument of the government against the opposition. 
Various Nigerians representing different institutions 
took different positions on the four most important 
issues -- INEC independence, INEC's Commissioners de- 
registering political parties, INEC's Commissioners 
overruling Returning Officers on election results, and 
INEC holding the local government elections skipped in 
April 2003. 
 
2. (SBU) President Obasanjo pushed hard for giving new 
power to the INEC Commissioners, whom he chose.  INEC 
Chairman Guobadia pushed for independent funding and 
independent mention in the Constitution for INEC, 
although he stopped well short of backing Transition 
Monitoring Group Chairman Okoye and the opposition on 
re-establishing that the Commissioners themselves be 
independents or that they should be chosen in a process 
that includes the opposition.  Guobadia voiced a need 
to regulate political parties, although he did not go 
so far as to join Obasanjo in advocating that INEC de- 
register them.  The INEC Chairman agreed with Okoye and 
the opposition against INEC Commissioners overruling 
Returning Officers, although INEC's paper said erring 
Returning Officers should be punished.  Guobadia said 
nothing about local elections in his speech, but his 
staff worked with Okoye to put a call in the seminar 
statement for local elections to be held by March 31, 
2004.  End Summary. 
 
3. (SBU) INEC hosted a seminar November 27-28 to 
discuss possible electoral reforms.  The four issues 
above have been under discussion across the political 
spectrum for months (reftel). There were also 
proposals, such as INEC taking over voter education, 
that clearly had resonance with those who would benefit 
-- such as INEC's staff -- but are more constrained by 
lack of funds than opposed by anyone.  Some of the 
other ideas expressed, such as proportional 
representation vs. Nigeria's first-past-the-post 
system, have more resonance among foreign consultants 
than among Nigerians. 
 
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DE-REGULATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES 
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4. (SBU) Each of the four central issues took more 
shape during the seminar presentations than they had 
previously.  President Obasanjo pressed strongly for 
INEC Commissioners to be given the power to de-regulate 
political parties, and went beyond INEC Commissioner 
Iwu's earlier proposal (reftel) by elaborating four 
grounds on which INEC should de-register "erring" 
political parties: 
 
-- parties that fail to perform the basic functions of 
aggregating, articulating and representing social 
concerns; 
 
-- parties which exist only to collect grants from the 
government; 
 
-- parties which fail to submit to the basic demands 
for accountability and transparency; 
 
-- parties which fail to achieve an acceptable minimum 
of impact during elections. 
 
5. (SBU) INEC said specific breaches by political 
parties "need to be sanctioned," but did not go so far 
as to say the sanction should include de-registration, 
nor that INEC should be the instrument to decide which 
parties should be de-registered.  INEC listed five 
grounds for parties to be "sanctioned:" 
 
-- failure to submit to requirement of accountability 
and transparency; 
-- failure to field any candidate during general 
elections; 
-- failure to win 5 percent of the vote at any general 
election; 
 
-- existence of severe intra-party disputes; 
 
-- failure to maintain and operate at least an office 
in the Capital Territory (Abuja). 
 
6.  COMMENT:  There are good arguments in Nigeria for 
cutting federal campaign funds -- as we do in the U.S. 
-- to parties that do not gain a minimum percentage of 
the vote, but the U.S. cutoff is based on mathematical, 
not subjective, criteria and administered by an 
impartial body.  Giving a less than impartial INEC 
power to de-register (not only reduce funding to) 
political parties on several highly subjective grounds 
would be extremely problematic for democracy in 
Nigeria.  End Comment. 
 
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RETURNING OFFICERS 
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7. The issue of vote tallies being changed from what 
polling stations returned to what was finally announced 
at regional, state and federal INEC headquarters is a 
point of contention in the ongoing Buhari suit against 
Obasanjo's election.  Allowing INEC Commissioners to 
overrule the Returning Officers, as proposed by INEC 
Commissioner Iwu (reftel), was opposed by all of the 
civil society and opposition speakers at the INEC 
seminar.  INEC Chairman Guobadia said that challenging 
the Returning Officers' tallies should be left to the 
judicial system, although he darkly threatened that 
"there may be a need to legislate punishment for 
returning officers and other polling officials who 
willfully subvert the rules guiding the declaration of 
results.  Obasanjo did not mention the idea of INEC 
Commissioners overruling Returning Officers on election 
results, and the idea may be dropped or on hold. 
 
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LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS 
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8.  Neither President Obasanjo nor INEC Chairman 
Guobadia mentioned the local government elections, 
required by the Constitution but skipped in April 2003. 
TMG Chairman Okoye and other speakers were insistent, 
however, and the INEC staff put in the seminar's 
statement that local government elections must be held 
before March 31, 2004. 
 
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INEC INDEPENDENCE 
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9.  While Guobadia did say that the issue of how INEC 
officials are appointed needs to be addressed, he was 
much clearer in calling for independent funding of INEC 
outside the Executive Branch and for a new provision to 
be added to the Constitution that "INEC shall not be 
subject to the direction or control of any person or 
authority."  TMG Chairman Okoye went much further, 
demanding that the appointment of Commissioners be made 
non-partisan, and the Commission should have 
representation from labor, professional associations, 
the private sector, and human rights/pro-democracy 
NGOs.  The opposition has long claimed the 12 INEC 
Commissioners are not independent of President 
Obasanjo. 
 
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RISING ISSUES 
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10.  President Obasanjo interestingly complained that 
money distorts Nigeria's political process, and 
specifically called for reducing the GON's expenditure 
on elections.  Most observers did not see this as a 
response to Guobadia's call for independent funding, 
but rather a response to a rising revulsion at the role 
of money in Nigeria's politics.  Several later speakers 
called for reform of campaign financing, and specific 
proposals in the future may bring this issue to the 
fore.  Another rising issue was the role of ad hoc INEC 
staff being hired for election day from supporters of 
candidates, political parties or political 
"godfathers," and INEC has already announced in 
response that no ad hoc staff will be hired for the 
Abuja FCT Senatorial by-election later this month. 
MEECE