US embassy cable - 03ANKARA7641

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007641 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CENTER-RIGHT MOTHERLAND PARTY STRUGGLING 
TO STAY AFLOAT 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Unable to regain political momentum or solve 
ANAP's deepening financial difficulties, colorless chairman 
Ozdemir resigned days before the party's Dec. 13-14 general 
convention.  Former M.P. Nesrin Nas is likely to emerge as 
the next ANAP leader.  However, her ability to boost ANAP's 
chances going in March 2004 local elections  is undermined by 
her ties to corrupt former P.M. and ANAP chairman Mesut 
Yilmaz.  The latter faces a parliamentary high court 
corruption charge but nevertheless is planning a political 
comeback, according to our contacts.  End summary. 
 
 
------------ 
Sinking Ship 
------------ 
 
 
2. (C) At its general convention Dec. 13-14, Motherland Party 
(ANAP) will elect a new general chairman to replace Ali Talip 
Ozdemir, who announced is stepping down after only one, 
lackluster year.  For months political insiders, e.g., former 
senior ANAP official and minister Vehbi Dincerler, have 
bemoaned Ozdemir's lack of the vision and charisma needed to 
be an effective party leader.  With ANAP polling in the 
single digits (one poll from Nov. shows support at 3%), 
Ozdemir, our contacts say, decided to step aside to avoid 
further humiliation in local elections scheduled for March 
2004. 
 
 
3. (C) Former state minister and current ANAP vice chairman 
Mehmet Kececiler told us Dec. 5 that, in addition, Ozdemir 
lacked the fund-raising acumen needed to rescue the party 
from near-bankruptcy.  Kececiler claimed that Ozdemir had 
been relying on funds from his father-in-law, a wealthy 
businessman who owns several Antalya resorts, to support the 
party's activities but that these funds had run dry. 
Moreover, Kececiler added, Ozdemir could not raise money from 
the businessmen who had formerly supported ANAP during the 
Turgut Ozal period.  Vehbi Dincerler told poloffs Dec. 9 the 
party's financial situation is so dire that party executives 
are considering selling some of ANAP's property, including 
its offices in Istanbul.  However, rejecting press 
speculation that ANAP plans to sell off its centrally located 
Ankara headquarters, Dincerler said this would amount to 
closing the party. 
 
 
----------- 
Who's Next? 
----------- 
 
 
4. (C) As the sole candidate for chairman, former ANAP M.P. 
Nesrin Nas, whose photograph has peppered the walls of ANAP 
headquarters well before the party congress, is set to emerge 
as Ozdemir's successor.  In a Dec. 8 meeting with poloff, Nas 
admitted that some key ANAP board members still hope to 
derail her candidacy but that she expects to be elected at 
the party convention.  She hopes to inject "new leadership 
and new ideas" into a party that she says is likely to do 
poorly next March.  Nas claimed that ANAP is still strong in 
the Black Sea region and Istanbul.  At the same time, she 
said, her goal is to stem the losses to no more than half of 
600 elected municipalities that the party currently holds, 
mostly in those two regions.  While indicating that she is 
not totally adverse to cooperating in the local elections 
with ANAP's center-right rival True Path Party (DYP), she 
criticized DYP chairman Mehmet Agar for his "negative image" 
and said DYP would need unspecified "new ideas" before such 
cooperation could take place. 
 
 
5. (C) In describing her vision for ANAP, Nas adopted the 
language and policies often evinced by Ozdemir, suggesting 
that, if elected, Nas will represent a change of style versus 
substance.  Nas offered vague support for USG Iraq policy, 
saying "the U.S. must succeed in Iraq; there is no 
alternative for Turkey."  Like many of the ruling AK Party's 
opponents, Nas praised Erdogan's government for pursuing 
EU-related political reform but questioned the GOT's ultimate 
intentions. 
 
 
6. (C) Nas said she hoped to be Turkey's first "positive" 
role model for women in politics, an implicit criticism of 
former P.M. and DYP Chairman Tansu Ciller.  However, our AK 
contacts say the women have more in common than Nas is 
willing to suggest.  For example, like Ciller, Nas appears 
charming to many westerners because she speaks English and is 
able to converse in a seemingly intelligent way on the 
economy.  Some, like Dincerler and a long-standing Embassy 
contact active in women's issues and center-right politics, 
have noted to us in recent days that Nas is shallow, out of 
touch with the majority of the population in Anatolia (Ciller 
enjoyed a frisson of popularity in the heartland), and 
suspiciously wealthy. 
 
 
---------------------- 
Yilmaz Stalking Horse? 
---------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Our ANAP contacts -- including Kececiler, Dincerler, 
and long-time ANAP activist and Embassy contact Ali Turktas 
-- tell us Nas has long been associated with former ANAP 
leader Yilmaz, who, along with several former Ministers, is 
about to be examined by a parliamentary high court (Yuce 
Divan) for corruption.  Nas would only say to us that Yilmaz 
"does not oppose" her candidacy; in the past she has told us 
more openly that she favors his comeback.  Dincerler, who 
Dec. 10 resigned his position as advisor to the ANAP 
chairman, told us Nas' emergence probably means Yilmaz is 
planning an eventual comeback, which Dincerler claimed would 
destroy the party.  Dincerler admitted that he privately 
hopes Nas becomes ANAP chairman, performs poorly, and is 
forced out so that the Yilmaz faction within the party will 
be discredited further.  While acknowledging that Nas is 
likely paving the way for Yilmaz' return, Kececiler pointed 
out that Yilmaz will do nothing to pursue his comeback while 
the corruption investigation continues. 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
8. (C) Given its corrupt baggage, poor polling numbers, and 
apparent reluctance to cooperate with other center-right 
parties heading into the March elections, ANAP has poor 
prospects for revival as a credible national force.  Nesrin 
Nas is glib and skilled at barbarian handling of westerners, 
and too clever by half.  Although she has her son at 
university in the U.S., as an ally of Yilmaz she is moving in 
the political and business milieu tainted by the German and 
Russian lobbies.  Our contacts at Parliament say Yilmaz is 
unlikely to emerge from the corruption investigation 
unscathed, making it unlikely that he will be able to creep 
back easily onto the political scene.  End comment. 
EDELMAN