US embassy cable - 03AMMAN8122

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 008122 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAL, KISL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN OPPOSITION TO GENEVA ACCORD GEARS UP IN 
FACE OF VOCAL GOJ SUPPORT 
 
REF: AMMAN 07232 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b and d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Breaking weeks of relative silence on the issue, 
Jordanian officials, led by King Abdullah, are lauding the 
unofficial Geneva Accord as a means to enhance dialogue and 
complement efforts to end the current peace process stalemate 
-- while reiterating their support for the roadmap.  The 
official praise contrasts with skeptics who fear the Geneva 
Accord will eventually join the growing pile of unimplemented 
peace initiatives, and the opposition's vehement rejection, 
which focuses on the plan's perceived abandonment of the 
Palestinians' "right of return."  The Professional 
Associations' Council reportedly has launched a signature 
campaign against the initiative, but rumored protests in 
Amman have not materialized.  The lively debate in Jordan 
about the accord underscores the importance of maintaining 
forward momentum long enough to convince publics on both 
sides -- again -- that compromise is in everyone's interest. 
End Summary. 
 
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GOJ VIEW ON GENEVA ACCORD EVOLVES 
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2.  (C)  Jordanian officials, publicly restrained about the 
effort after the Geneva Accord was first announced in Jordan 
on October 13 (see ref), are now heaping praise on the 
effort.  "It's a very fascinating document.... what we're 
talking about in this document is Taba-plus, with the blanks 
built in," King Abdullah told CNN during his recent 
Washington visit. "I think that any initiative that 
complements the peace process, that tries to move the process 
forward -- and the principles in the Geneva Accord are 
actually in line with the road map -- I think it can only be 
a positive thing." 
 
3.  (U)  GOJ spokesperson Asma Khader described the plan as 
an attempt to put the peace process back on track, saying 
Jordan backs all efforts aimed at helping the Palestinian 
people achieve their rights and establishing peace in the 
Middle East.  At the same time she emphasized Jordan's 
support for the Palestinian refugees' right of return. 
 
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OPPOSITION LAUNCHES INVECTIVE, AND SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN 
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4.  (U)  Despite the unofficial nature of the accord, the 
opposition is mobilizing against it.  On December 4, the 
14-member Professional Associations' Council issued a 
statement condemning the initiative, rejecting "all treaties 
that compromise Palestinians' right of  repatriation."  The 
statement called on the Arab countries (read: especially 
Jordan) to cut diplomatic ties with Israel, saying armed 
resistance Is the only viable option for Palestinians.  The 
associations have launched a signature collection campaign to 
express Jordan's rejection of the initiative, and agreed to 
organize a public event for that purpose.  (Note: 
Demonstrations against the initiative at the U.S. Embassy and 
UN building in Amman reported in the press this week did not 
materialize, but Post's security contacts are aware of the 
rumors.  End note.) 
 
5.  (U)  The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) issued a similar 
statement the same day.  "Anyone who signs off a grain of 
sand from Palestine to the Jews and usurpers is an enemy of 
God and the Prophet Mohammad and is damned in this life and 
hereafter."  It called for those who authored and signed the 
document to be tried in public and for Arabs to join in 
condemning the initiative. 
 
6.  (U)  During an interview with the Arabic-language al-Ra'i 
newspaper a week later, MB leader Abd al-Majid Dhunaybat 
said: "We say that such documents will be torn asunder by the 
defiance of the Palestinian people and its absolute rejection 
of concessions, its commitment to its claim in Palestine, and 
the firmly-established right of return that no one will be 
able to concede."  Referring to the perceived Israeli goal to 
"transfer" the Palestinian population to Jordan to ensure the 
Jewish character of Israel, he added: "the resettlement plan 
does still exist in the minds of some of the international 
powers that serve the Jews and international Zionism.  This 
is what we as Jordanians and Palestinians completely reject. 
The Jordanians reject it because it contains a violation of 
his right and the Palestinian rejects it because it contains 
a surrendering of his right to return to his homeland." 
 
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"RIGHT OF RETURN" CENTRAL TO DEBATE ABOUT ACCORD IN JORDAN 
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7.  (U)  In the days after the December 1 ceremony in Geneva, 
Jordanian papers were filled with commentary about the 
accord.  Some, including Senator Faleh al-Taweel, wrote that 
he expects the accord to eventually gather dust on the shelf 
like so many peace initiatives that have come before. 
Jordanian-Palestinian journalist 'Uraib al-Rantawi agreed, 
but noted what he saw as a potential positive impact of 
moving Israeli public opinion against Sharon.  Mohammad 
Ka'wash wrote in al-Arab al-Yawm newspaper that despite its 
unofficial nature, the accord could help bolster the peace 
camp in Israel. 
 
8.  (U)  There has been much focus on the provisions in the 
accord dealing with the Palestinians' "right to return" to 
their families' original homes in historic Palestine.  East 
Bank Christian journalist Nahed Hattar sounded Jordanian 
nationalist alarms, writing that if such an accord emerges as 
the basis for a final agreement, then the Jordanian 
government would be "forced" to nationalize all Palestinians 
who reside in Jordan thus leading to great (negative) change 
in the demographic and political structure in Jordan. 
 
9.  (U)  Several commentators, including Al-Arab al-Yawm 
editor in chief Taher al-Udwan, interpreted the accord's 
attempt to address the "right of return" dilemma as a 
"cancellation" of the Palestinians right to return to 
historic Palestine that should be rejected.  Hasan Abu Nimah, 
writing in the English-language Jordan Times, deplored the 
accord, saying it did more to satisfy the international 
community that deal with the true needs of the Israeli and 
Palestinian people. 
 
10.  (C)  Palestinians in Jordan also disagree whether the 
Palestinian diaspora -- especially in Jordan -- should have a 
strong voice in determining the final solution to the 
conflict.  Former royal court adviser Adnan Abu Odeh believes 
that Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and not 
Palestinians outside, should have the final word in any 
agreement.  There is no comparison, he told poloff, between 
the hardships of life under occupation and those faced by 
displaced refugees in neighboring states. 
 
11.  (C)  PLO refugee affairs representative in Jordan 
Mohammed Abu Bakr disagrees, telling refcoord that no 
agreement on final status issues -- especially the right of 
return -- will hold unless the Palestinian diaspora signs on. 
 He believes the Geneva Accord is a good vehicle for ordinary 
Palestinians to start thinking realistically about right of 
return issues and for the PLO to start convincing refugees 
that giving up the right of return is in their best interest. 
 He readily admitted he was way ahead of Palestinian official 
and public thinking on this point.  During the last year, Abu 
Bakr has briefed refcoord on the PLO Refugee Affairs 
Department's quiet efforts to seek funding for a 
diaspora-wide public opinion survey that could be used as the 
basis for an public dialogue on right of return issues. 
While the PLO's fundraising efforts so far have unsuccessful, 
there are hints the Swiss Government may fund the survey as 
part of the June 2004 UNRWA Conference in Geneva (details 
reported septel). 
 
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COMMENT 
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12.  (C)  Given Jordan's large refugee population, no other 
final status issue -- not even Jerusalem or final borders of 
the would-be Palestinian state -- raises Jordanian hackles 
more than the "right of return."  Hard-liners will continue 
to argue that any compromise on the Palestinians' "right of 
return" will facilitate Israel's ultimate plan of 
"transferring" the Palestinian population to Jordan -- a 
hotbutton issue particularly among Jordan's East Bank 
community sensitive to the demographic realities of Jordan's 
majority Palestinian population.  The lively debate about the 
Geneva Accord demonstrates Jordanians' deep interest in 
moving the process forward, but also the skepticism and 
frustration about unfulfilled agreements.   It also 
underscores the fact that much hard work will have to be done 
to convince both populations -- again -- that a negotiated 
settlement is the only option. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site 
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page. 
GNEHM