US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2581

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: MESIC'S POLITICAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SANADER 
 
Classified By: Nicholas Hill, Political-Economic Counselor, for reasons 
 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.   (C) President Mesic is satisfied that relations with the 
incoming government led by HDZ should go smoothly.  That is 
what his top domestical political advisor, Igor Dekanic, told 
us in his office on December 5.  He said that HDZ President 
Ivo Sanader should get the formal nod from the president on 
December 9 and the parliament could be convened before 
Christmas.  President Mesic intends to give the new 
government the benefit of the doubt, and is counting on it to 
continue to carry out a largely pro-reform agenda.  With a 
slim margin in the Parliament, the government may not last 
its full four-year mandate, but should be around through 
presidential voting in early 2005.  On issues of concern to 
the U.S., Dekanic predicted that a decision to send troops to 
Iraq was doable and, now that there is a UN resolution in 
place, President Mesic should be on board.  By contrast, with 
the votes not adding up in parliament, he indicated that the 
new government would have a very difficult time getting an 
Article 98 agreement approved in the Sabor.  End summary. 
 
Smooth Sailing Ahead? 
--------------------- 
 
2.   (C) President Mesic's top domestic political advisor, 
Igor Dekanic, was more positive than we expected in our first 
meeting since the elections swept out PM Racan's reform 
coalition.  He said that President Mesic understood well the 
wish of Croatian voters and fully intended to make the best 
of the new circumstances and try to work well with an HDZ-led 
government.  Mesic, whose relations with Racan have always 
been rocky, even quipped that he was a "founding member" of 
HDZ -- which is true, before he quit in 1993 -- and 
recognized that the party had gone through reforms in recent 
years.  "In every joke there is some truth," Dekanic told us. 
 He added that the Office of the President has even received 
private assurances that relations with the incoming 
government would be much better than they were under Racan. 
Dekanic indicated that the HDZ may even join Mesic's 
traditional allies in the current Racan government to support 
Mesic openly for President when as everybody expects he runs 
again in early 2005.  Alternatively, Dekanic added 
implausibly, HDZ could offer up a weak candidate of its own, 
assuring Mesic's victory. 
 
Coalition Jockeying 
------------------- 
 
3.   (C) Dekanic described Sanader's coalition jockeying 
pretty much as it has been described in the press, with a 
concerted effort on the HDZ leader's part to look responsible 
and reform-minded.  Dekanic said Sanader took to heart what 
the European ambassadors said after the elections about the 
right-wing Croatian Party of Rights (HSP), and will do 
everything to avoid bringing the party into any coalition -- 
certainly initially.  Early in an HDZ government's mandate, 
Sanader should enjoy a fairly comfortable margin in the 
parliament, Dekanic predicted.  The new government could 
count on the support of the Peasants Party (HSS) and even the 
Serbian representatives elected on the minority list, 
although neither party will be part of the HDZ-led coalition. 
 Dekanic confirmed that HSS leader Tomcic is having serious 
trouble inside his own party, which made it impossible to 
join any HDZ government.  He added that the three new Serbian 
representatives in parliament were demanding a lot for their 
support -- but some of this, he suggested, may be political 
posturing that will settle down.  He held out at least a 
small possibility that the Serbian SDSS representatives could 
eventually be persuaded to join the government. 
 
Troops to Iraq/Article 98 
------------------------- 
 
4.   (C) We asked Dekanic to predict if the new parliament 
would be able to deliver a vote to deploy troops to Iraq and 
approve an Article 98 agreement.  He said that troops to Iraq 
looked likely to pass if Sanader wanted it -- although, given 
the two-thirds majority required, nothing was certain. 
Dekanic indicated that there were probably enough votes in 
the opposition to cross the hurdle and, now with a UN 
Security Council resolution in place, he noted that President 
Mesic would also be supportive. 
 
5.   (C) On Article 98, Dekanic was much more cautious. 
President Mesic continues to object on principle.  There is 
no certainty that even if the new Prime Minister pushes hard 
for it, Sanader would be able to secure the necessary 
two-thirds support in parliament.  He would need to recruit 
many unlikely partners in the Parliament -- including the far 
right HSP, which having been spurned by Sanader in coalition 
negotiations, is unlikely to play a helpful role on this sort 
 
of issue. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.   (C) President Mesic's constitutional authority is quite 
limited, so he is probably wise -- and being politically 
expedient -- to give the new government the benefit of the 
doubt.  Like many others in Croatia, the President is 
satisfied with what Sanader is saying and hopes that the new 
Prime Minister will be able to deliver on a reform agenda. 
For his part, Sanader sees Mesic as an important ally. 
Dekanic correctly pointed out that the Croatian President has 
enormous credibility in the West and his seal of approval 
will be important in coming months as Sanader sets out to 
keep progress toward the EU and NATO on course. 
 
7.   (C) The pay off for Mesic will be what HDZ does when 
Mesic runs for reelection in early 2005.  Dekanic predicted 
that Mesic may run with support from all mainstream quarters 
-- that is, with the HDZ-led coalition and the previous 
SDP-led coalition.  Mesic, the longest of long shots at the 
start of the last presidential election in 2000, would look 
like a juggernaut the second time around.  But a year is a 
long time in Croatian politics, and a lot can change, 
particularly given a parliament that is so evenly split. 
 
 
FRANK 
 
 
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