US embassy cable - 03HARARE2364

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002364 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY CIRCLES WAGONS AT ANNUAL CONFERENCE 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 2359 (B) HARARE 2313 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Win Dayton under section 1.5(b)(d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: The ZANU-PF annual conference December 5-8 
in Masvingo projected a ruling party united under the 
unquestioned leadership of Robert Mugabe and ever-resistant 
to outside influence.  The conference ended suspense over 
succession speculation by indicating unambiguously that the 
party leadership would brook no further discussion of the 
matter.  The party postured truculently toward the 
Commonwealth and the opposition MDC and reiterated the 
centrality of land reform to the party's platform.  There was 
no apparent discussion of meaningful measures to address the 
country's economic implosion.  Mugabe attacked those within 
the party who put money ahead of party interests and those 
who collaborated with the MDC, and took urban party 
structures to task for their failures.  Perhaps foreshadowing 
a turbulent year ahead, the seige mentality deepened by this 
conference likely will further stifle debate within the party 
and harden the party against engagement with the opposition 
and the outside world.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) Attended by two emboffs and representatives from 
more than a dozen diplomatic missions, the party's opening 
segment on December 5 revolved around land reform, party 
unity, and vilification of the Commonwealth.  Disorganization 
was fairly evident, as some of the more than two thousand 
official delegates had to sleep in cars or on the grass 
during the first night.  Anti-Commonwealth placards 
outnumbered the land reform signs that traditionally have 
dominated party gatherings in recent years, and groups 
outside the tented venue vented anti-Commonwealth and 
anti-MDC slogans. 
 
3.  (SBU) Mugabe delivered an energetic address and, flanked 
closely by two bodyguards, appeared to be in good health 
throughout the first morning's proceedings.  Mugabe went 
after the Commonwealth, the MDC, and "enemies within the 
party" in his speech.  Foreshadowing the government's 
subsequent withdrawal from the club, Mugabe questioned 
Zimbabwe's need for Commonwealth membership to wide applause. 
 He continued his racially polarizing attacks against the 
United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.  He sounded an 
ominous warning to the opposition party, noting that the 
ruling party could "unleash legal force and legal violence" 
to counter its violations of law. 
 
4.  (SBU) Mugabe was pointed in his criticism of those within 
the party who strayed from strict party discipline.  In 
particular, he singled out "money-lovers" who put 
self-interest over the needs of the party, "double-dippers" 
who consorted secretly with the MDC, and party structures in 
urban areas that had failed in contests against the MDC. 
Mugabe said nothing about talks with the opposition, other 
than to observe that they were not the business of the 
Commonwealth or anybody outside Zimbabwe.  Singled out for 
recognition was the party's information and publicity effort 
(headed by party hard-liner Jonathan Moyo). 
 
5.  (SBU) On land reform, Mugabe acknowledged implementation 
problems.  He complained that the A-2 program was lagging and 
that too much land remained underutilized.  Competing claims 
continued to hamper administration, in part because former 
commercial farmers were paying urban residents to squat on 
and compete for recently resettled land.  The government 
needed to exert more control over agricultural inputs. 
Finally, Mugabe cautioned members that not everybody needed 
land; there were not enough farms to go around and many would 
have to find prosperity down other avenues.  Nonetheless, the 
redistribution of land to indigenous Zimbabweans represented 
a triumph for all.  Among other issues addressed were 
HIV/AIDS and the deterioration of health services, which 
Mugabe emphasized required the party's attention.  Embassy 
will relay a copy of the speech to AF/S if one is obtained. 
(Note: unlike his government addresses, the President's party 
addresses often are not circulated publicly.  End note.) 
 
6.  (SBU) Other speakers at the opening session included 
Party Chairman John Nkomo, Vice President Joseph Msika, Party 
Secretary for Administration (and Speaker of the Parliament) 
 
SIPDIS 
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Masvingo Governor Josayah Hungwe and new 
Masvingo Party Chairman Daniel Shumba.  A minister who 
offered the session's opening blessing set the tone for the 
day, asserting that ZANU-PF was the arm of God driving the 
devil from Zimbabwe.  Shumba received the most applause, 
although he received adverse publicity for presumptuously 
declaring he would be the party's next candidate for Masvingo 
central district (now occupied by an MDC MP), an apparent 
breach of party protocol without appropriate consultations. 
Mnangagwa, the relatively unpopular figure still regarded in 
succession speculation as having the inside track, got the 
most tepid reception.  The heaviest applause fell upon a 
primary school student who recited a fifteen minute "poem he 
had written," complete with anti-neocolonial and anti-MDC 
diatribes.  No speaker varied at all from the parameters of 
the President's address -- all speakers denounced the 
Commonwealth and tied future party success to the party's 
ability to follow Robert Mugabe.  Indeed, Mugabe and the late 
Vice-President Simon Muzenda were the only party figures 
whose accomplishments were recognized throughout the morning. 
 
 
7.  (U) According to reports by the government-controlled 
"Herald" on the conference's closed sessions, Mugabe told the 
conference that he was not prepared to take a "rest" yet.  He 
said he would "come back to you honorably and say I need a 
rest" when the time came, but until then members should not 
discuss succession clandestinely.  Vice-President Msika went 
further and branded as a sellout anybody who would discuss 
succession while Mugabe remained in office. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Squelching any discussion of succession will douse 
the overt aspirations and posturing among pretenders to the 
throne, such as Mnangagwa (ref A).  The subject of adverse 
publicity in connection with a local gold scandal, Mnangagwa 
may be the conference's biggest loser, at least at first 
blush.  The succession issue cannot help but remain a party 
concern beneath the surface, however, even as those beneath 
Mugabe continue to vie for his favor and economic privilege. 
The conference's biggest winners probably were the party's 
political hard-line wing, whose influence permeated the 
themes of every speaker.  Also pleased will be those party 
elites who are exploiting the status quo to build economic 
empires above the law.  Looking ahead, the theme of "enemies 
within" will open opportunities for Mugabe to readjust the 
party leadership more to his liking and for party members to 
go after each other on a host of personally based motives. 
The environment may set the stage for considerable 
intra-party political and economic blood-letting and possible 
witch-hunts. 
 
9.  (C) Closure on succession (for now) and the absence of 
any outreach to the opposition will further impel the MDC to 
plan mass action in the coming months (ref B).  Perhaps 
foreshadowing and intending to justify such action, a 
December 5 missive "to the people of Zimbabwe" from MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai (e-mailed to AF/S) recounts the 
failure of good faith efforts by the MDC, the bishops, and 
the Presidents of South Africa and Malawi to engineer any 
meaningful dialogue in Zimbabwe. 
 
10.  (C) The conference also must have proven a 
disappointment to South African President Mbeki.  Despite 
Mbeki's reported lobbying at the Commonwealth for Zimbabwe's 
readmission, Mugabe gave him little, if anything, in return. 
The consistent line throughout the conference reconfirmed 
that there appears little substance to underpin Mbeki's 
assertions of progress in political dialogue here. 
Furthermore, the conference's outcome underscores the ruling 
party's imperviousness to international pressure and the 
primacy of short-term domestic politicking over long-term 
national interest in the party's thinking. 
 
11.  (C) The conference reflected and will magnify one of the 
party's most significant flaws: its inability to encourage or 
even to tolerate debate within its ranks.  A disaffected 
party member once close to Mugabe observed recently to the 
Ambassador that Mugabe was a changed man -- he used to 
welcome intellectual discussion and debate but had now cut 
himself off from all save those who agreed with him. 
Accordingly, we do not expect the party's approach (or lack 
thereof) to the country's political stalemate or ongoing 
economic collapse to change in the foreseeable future. 
 
SULLIVAN