US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2565

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (KABUMOTO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: SANADER'S HDZ STILL COBBLING TOGETHER COALITION; 
MINORITY GOVERNMENT LIKELY 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Nearly two weeks after his party scored a resounding 
win in Croatia's November 23 parliamentary election, HDZ 
President Ivo Sanader is still rounding up votes to pass a 
vote of confidence in the new parliament.  Sanader will 
certainly be Croatia's next Prime Minister, but it is taking 
him a bit longer than he expected to get the eleven 
additional votes his HDZ needs for a majority.  The HDZ may 
in fact begin its term with a minority government; Sanader 
already has enough pledges of "yea" votes from parties which 
do not intend to enter his coalition.  In a meeting with the 
Ambassador on December 3, Sanader said he would meet with 
President Mesic on December 8 and expected to be named 
"PM-Designate" shortly thereafter.  Election results were 
made "official" on December 5; the first session of the 
parliament must take place within 20 days.  A new HDZ-led 
government could be in place before Christmas.  End Summary. 
 
HDZ Headed for Minority Government? 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Euphoria from the HDZ's big win on November 23 faded 
quickly as Sanader has had to work hard to secure commitments 
from new members of the Sabor to secure the 77-seat majority 
needed to pass a vote of confidence in Croatia's new 
parliament.  So far, Sanader has obtained the signatures of 
ten MP's (a mixture of small parties, minority 
representatives and three votes from the Croatian Party of 
Pensioners - HSU) to add to the 66 HDZ seats he already 
controls.  While no other MP-elect has officially signed up, 
Sanader has more than enough informal pledges of support for 
his proposed government to pass an initial vote of confidence 
in the parliament. 
 
HSS Decides Against Coalition with HDZ 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Sanader's hopes of a comfortable majority were dashed 
on December 2, when the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) turned 
down an offer to enter a coalition with the HDZ. 
Nevertheless, HSS President Zlatko Tomcic agreed to vote to 
support Sanader's proposed government, which will give the 
HDZ enough votes to pass a vote of confidence with a few to 
spare.  HSS leaders told us they were under heavy pressure 
from conservative European political leaders to enter 
coalition with HDZ, but resistance from within the HSS to 
joining with their former political opponents threatened 
party stability.  Had the HSS decided to enter government 
with the HDZ, it would almost certainly mean the ouster of 
the eight HSS governors who owe their seats to deals with the 
HDZ's political opponents.  Despite his party's poor 
performance in the election, HSS party president Tomcic is 
trying to have his cake and eat it too: his deal with Sanader 
reportedly lets HSS appointees keep their political patronage 
jobs while his decision to remain out of the HDZ government 
might let HSS governors remain in their chairs. 
 
EU Ambassadors Insist That HSP Stay Out of Government 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4.  (C) Sanader lost the option to form a coalition with the 
extreme right-wing Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) when on 
December 1 the Italian Ambassador to Croatia -- after a 
November 27 meeting of all European Union Ambassadors in 
Zagreb -- announced that the HSP was "unacceptable" to the EU 
and that a government including the HSP would impede 
Croatia's progress toward EU membership.  In a December 3 
meeting with the Ambassador, Sanader said that he had never 
really considered a coalition with the HSP, but was peeved by 
the EU Ambassadors' "inappropriate" interference in Croatia's 
internal political affairs. 
 
Sanader Still Searching For The 77th Vote 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Sanader told the Ambassador that he still hoped to 
get at least one more signature.  Negotiations with Furio 
Radin, the representative of Croatia's Italian minority are 
still open, Sanader said, and the HDZ still hopes to come to 
some agreement with the three Members-elect representing 
Serbs.  All of Croatia's political elite know that Radin 
holds Sanader's all-important 77th seat and the pressure is 
on from Sanader's political opponents in Istria (where most 
of Croatia's ethnic Italians live) to keep Radin out of the 
Government.  Press reports indicate that Radin will be on the 
fence: like the HSS, he will vote confidence in the Sanader 
government, but will not sign on the dotted line. 
 
 
Election Results Final, Parliament Must Sit By Christmas 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
6.  (C) The results from the Novemmber 23 election become 
"official" on December 5, two days after they were announced 
by Croatia's State Electoral Commission.  Croatia's 
constitution requires the first session of the new parliament 
be convened within 20 days of "completion of the electoral 
process," which means it will be gaveled open before December 
25. 
 
Sanader Expects Designation From Mesic 
-------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Sanader told the Ambassador that he expects to meet 
formally with President Mesic on December 8 and be named 
PM-Designate soon after, possibly as early as December 9. 
There is no requirement that the government pass its vote of 
confidence in the Sabor's first meeting and Sanader may 
choose to wait until early January. 
 
Ambassador Lays Down Markers With Sanader 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The Ambassador took the opportunity of his one-on-one 
meeting with Sanader on December 3 to lay down markers about 
how best to show the international community -- and Croatia's 
voters -- that an HDZ government will keep Croatia moving 
forward on the road toward integration in Euro-Atlantic 
Institutions.  Sanader seemed to take the advice seriously, 
writing down plenty of notes.  On economics, the Ambassador 
urged Sanader to make a clear statement supporting the 
independence of the Central Bank and to engage in some 
substantive dialogue with the IMF.  On relations with ICTY, 
the Ambassador said there is no room for compromise and urged 
Sanader to ensure his party's policy of full cooperation 
remains clear.  On refugee returns, he said the international 
community welcomed Sanader's campaign statements, but would 
make its judgments based on policy implementation.  The 
Ambassador told Sanader that the Defense Ministry has made 
good progress toward NATO goals in the past two years, 
particularly on depoliticization of the armed forces and on 
launching the difficult process of downsizing.  The 
Ambassador expressed hope that the next defense minister 
would not reverse these trends. 
 
9.  (C) The Ambassador said that the USG took the HDZ's 
campaign pledge to sign an Article 98 Agreement as a 
commitment.  We did not welcome reports that Miomir Zuzul, 
Sanader's likely appointee to be Croatia's next foreign 
minister, may have been walking back that commitment during 
recent meetings in Washington. 
 
10.  (C) Sanader thanked the Ambassador, and while he 
resisted making predictions about the makeup of his proposed 
government, he rejected press speculation that either of the 
former Defense Ministers now in the HDZ parliamentary caucus, 
Luka Bebic or Andrije Hebrang, would be named as Croatia's 
next defense minister.  (Note: Both Bebic and Hebrang have 
made statements suggesting they would reward political 
loyalty within the uniformed services.  End Note.)  Sanader 
welcomed the Ambassador's proposal to continue to meet 
regularly as plans for the next Croatian government take 
shape. 
FRANK 
 
 
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