US embassy cable - 03ANKARA7411

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: LEFT-OF-CENTER OPPOSITION CHP SCORNS CALLS 
FOR ELECTION ALLIANCE 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Opposition left-of-center CHP has rejected 
calls for unity on the political left in the run-up to March 
2004 local elections.  Optimism in CHP higher ranks is belied 
by growing frustration among CHP M.P.s with the party's 
prospects.  Rather than focus on the party leadership's 
shortcomings, however, many M.P.s are for now blaming the USG 
and local media for actively undermining CHP and supporting 
the ruling AK Party.  Moreover, our contacts tell us not to 
expect the party to back off its strong criticism of USG and 
GOT policy in Iraq. End Summary. 
 
 
-------------- 
Going It Alone 
-------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has 
rejected overtures from other left-of-center parties to 
propose joint candidates in nation-wide local elections 
scheduled for next March 28.  Senior CHP M.P. Bulent Tanla, 
who serves as chief advisor to party leader Deniz Baykal, 
explained to poloff Dec. 2 that CHP did not want the extra 
baggage of trying to cooperate with four or five different 
parties.  Tanla claimed that former F.M. Ismail Cem's New 
Turkey Party (YTP), for example, had demanded an equal say in 
selecting candidates even though YTP received little support 
in the 2002 general elections. 
 
 
3. (C) Denying that public support for CHP is declining 
(polls show support for the party at around 12 percent or 
seven points below its 2002 general election vote total), 
Tanla asserted that CHP is poised to do well in March without 
help from other leftist parties.  Tanla noted that as a 
result of the general elections, CHP and ruling AK Party 
captured a total of about 54 percent of the vote.  That share 
of the total vote will only go up, Tanla claimed, because 
support to other political parties that received votes in 
2002 has virtually disappeared.  As the only viable 
alternative to AK Party, Tanla claimed, CHP will naturally 
receive the bulk of those votes. 
 
 
4. (C) Representatives of the Social Democratic People's 
Party (SHP) had pushed for weeks for an election alliance on 
the left.  In a late Nov. meeting, SHP Secretary General 
Fikri Saglar told poloff that CHP will absolutely need the 
support of other left-leaning parties like SHP and YTP. 
Saglar, who clearly envisions SHP as a potential king-maker 
in March, said that CHP support across the country is 
flagging.  As an illustration, he cited polling data that CHP 
had conducted in Izmir, historically a left-of-center 
bastion, and had shared with SHP.  According to the data, CHP 
and AK Party are running neck and neck, each polling at 
around 25 percent.  SHP support in Izmir is holding steady 10 
percent.  Without joining forces with SHP and putting forward 
a joint candidate, CHP stands a good chance of losing Izmir, 
Saglar asserted.  Our political party and man-in-the-street 
contacts in Ankara assert that the same is true in the 
capital: if the left unites, it has a shot against incumbent 
mayor Gokcek; if not, Gokcek is a shoe-in. 
 
 
----------------------- 
Bitterness in the Ranks 
----------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) Tanla's optimism notwithstanding, CHP's Parliament 
group has recently evinced a lack of optimism about the 
party's general direction and is pointing fingers at outside 
actors, who they claim are thwarting the party's chances. 
Number one on their list is the Turkish media.  M.P.s Gaye 
Erbatur and Gokhan Durgun, both of whom have been reasonable 
interlocutors in the past, recently asserted to poloff that 
the Turkish media is beholden to the AK Government.  The 
Dogan Group, in particular, they claimed has been decidedly 
anti-CHP in its newspapers, which include the mass dailies 
Hurriyet and Milliyet.  In addition, Durgun averred that 
television channels are not granting Baykal or other senior 
CHP members air time to explain the party's policies.  "It's 
as if they want us to fail and the Government to succeed," he 
complained. 
 
 
6. (C) Immediately following the Nov. 2002 elections, CHP 
members from central committee members to sub-provincial 
party bosses accused the USG of undermining CHP in order to 
bring AK Party to power.  In recent meetings with us, CHP 
M.P.s have reprised this theme.  Erbatur falsely claimed that 
the USG does not support her efforts to improve women's 
rights in Turkey.  She only half jokingly told poloff that 
the only reason AK Party is still in power is that the USG 
wants it to succeed.  M.P. Berhan Simsek told poloff late 
November that the USG keeps the "religious people" (i.e. AK 
Party) in power because the U.S. wants a successful "Islamist 
Government" (sic) to be used as a model for the Middle East. 
 
 
------------ 
Same old CHP 
------------ 
 
 
7. (C) The inability to criticize the party reflected in the 
above comments will carry over into the party's policies at 
least until local elections, according to our CHP contacts. 
In private conversations recently, several party deputies 
told us that they do not expect any major shift in the 
party's direction following the late October general 
convention that manipulated Baykal's reelection as CHP 
leader.  Close Embassy contact and CHP M.P. from Hakkari Esat 
Canan, who admitted to poloff that he has contemplated 
leaving the party, said there will be no change in party 
policy before local elections.  He asserted that while many 
in the party are looking for former State Minister Kemal 
Dervis -- now CHP Vice Chairman -- to assert himself and make 
the party more appealing to the public, Dervis lacks the 
courage and political skill to pull it off.  He added that 
Dervis is not fit to lead. 
 
 
8. (C) Dervis' newfound prominence in the party hierarchy 
could be short-lived, according to our contacts.  Baykal has 
accommodated Dervis by allowing the former State Minister to 
be nominally responsible for CHP's foreign relations but has 
not given him any real authority, according to Bulent Tanla. 
Meanwhile, Dervis supporter and CHP M.P. Memduh Hacioglu told 
poloff recently that there is growing pressure from CHP 
leadership for Dervis to be the party's candidate for 
Istanbul Mayor in March.  Hacioglu said he advised Dervis not 
to pursue the position because he is likely to lose, which 
would put Dervis' political career in jeopardy.  Hacioglu, 
whom Baykal publicly criticized for advocating lifting the 
ban on headscarves in universities, said that is exactly what 
the CHP leader hopes will happen.  When asked whether Dervis 
will be a candidate, Baykal crony Tanla would only say that 
he might be. 
 
 
9. (C) Esat Canan noted that former Ambassador Onur Oymen -- 
the party's most outspoken critic of U.S. policy in Iraq and 
now CHP Vice Chairman -- is actually running the party's 
foreign policy.  "This should tell you where our party is 
going," a visibly dejected Canan explained.  Oymen gave an 
interview for the Nov. 30 issue of the national-socialist, 
anti-American, Russian-financed weekly Aydinlik in which he 
questioned whether the U.S. had ever been Turkey's strategic 
ally.  Asking "Would a strategic ally ever impose a military 
embargo on Turkey?  Would a strategic ally ever puts bags 
over the heads of Turkish soldiers?" Oymen scoffed at U.S. 
efforts to combat the Kurdish terrorist PKK. 
 
 
10. (C) Indeed, our CHP contacts tell us that what CHP sees 
as both the USG and the GOT's gross mishandling of Iraq is 
likely to figure prominently in the party's public propaganda 
in the months leading up to local elections.  Despite 
asserting that CHP is a strong believer in close U.S.-Turkey 
ties, Simsek told us his party is using the Iraq issue as a 
political tool to curry favor with voters.  In a discussion 
with us recently, M.P. Ozlem Cercioglu, a newcomer to 
Parliament who serves on Parliament's Human Rights Committee, 
said, "it's true that my party is using anti-American 
rhetoric for political purposes." 
 
 
11. (C) Comment: The willingness of people like Oymen, whose 
apparent patina of experience makes him a favored guest on TV 
talk shows, to indulge in anti-American harping, including in 
Aydinlik, shows how much CHP and its leadership have 
degenerated.  End comment. 
EDELMAN