US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1562

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, BM, NLD 
SUBJECT: WAITING FOR GODOT: NLD LEADERS IN A HOLDING 
PATTERN? 
 
REF: RANGOON 1534 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Recently released senior leaders of the NLD 
indicate they will remain politically active and press ahead 
with the challenge of reviving the democracy movement and 
protecting the survival of their political party.  However, 
the "Uncles" admit that they find it difficult to form a 
political strategy in the absence of their detained CEC 
colleagues, including ASSK.  In the interim, they welcome 
external pressure and encourage more of the same.  End 
Summary. 
 
The Uncles Re-Emerge 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) On December 2, COM and Emboffs called on the recently 
released members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) 
Central Executive Committee (CEC).  The Burmese regime lifted 
house arrest restrictions on U Nyunt Wei, U Than Tun, U Hla 
Pe, U Soe Myint, and U Lun Tin on November 23 and 24 and the 
five leaders have been meeting regularly at U Than Tun's 
modest Rangoon residence.  Although the NLD "Uncles" did not 
suffer any serious health problems while under house arrest, 
the leaders, who average 80 years of age, are clearly coping 
with the aches and pains of aging. 
 
3. (C) The Uncles, who have only met with British and 
Americans among the diplomatic corps (reftel), described 
themselves as actively picking up NLD party activities where 
they left off before house arrest in early June.  They 
convene every work day of the week and within recent days met 
with several NLD division leaders to discuss regional party 
activities.  The NLD leaders said that they have been meeting 
freely without military intelligence interference, although 
they have experienced periodic phone outages and do not have 
authorization to reopen party offices (note: a bevy of MI 
agents conducted surveillance of our meeting with the Uncles. 
 End note). 
 
No Political Games 
------------------ 
 
4. (C) U Nyunt Wei described the current environment as "an 
exciting, important period of change," but acknowledged that 
the Uncles were operating "somewhat in the dark" without the 
remaining four members of the CEC, including ASSK.  They 
Uncles said they do not know if or when their colleagues will 
be released, but they plan to initiate communications with 
ASSK.  "However," U Nyunt Wei insisted, "we will not march 
down University Avenue to knock on her door so that Radio 
Free Asia can report the regime turned us away."  He 
explained that the Uncles will not play political games with 
the SPDC, but will go about their business quietly, including 
opening a back channel to communicate with ASSK and other CEC 
members. 
 
5. (C) U Nyunt Wei reiterated an NLD position that the party 
would refuse to participate in the SPDC's reconvened National 
Convention (reftel).  "We walked out in 1995 for good 
reason," he said, "and our concerns still remain valid."  The 
SPDC's road map, said the Uncles, will not succeed.  U Hla Pe 
said that for the past 15 years the SPDC had harassed and 
intimidated the NLD, but now "we face the worst situation 
possible" in which the regime can indiscriminately "do what 
they want," detaining NLD members and supporters without any 
warning or indication of their intent.  "The Depeyin attack 
was our darkest moment," he said, "and now the regime has 
physically split the party leadership in half." 
 
Keep Up the Pressure 
-------------------- 
 
6. (C) The NLD Uncles expressed full support for U.S. 
sanctions and international pressure, observing that these 
actions had secured their release.  They urged continued 
pressure, "as a means to support the NLD's policy of change 
through non-violence" and to help revive the NLD party's 
ability to operate.  Each of the Uncles expressed their 
desire to see the United Nations remain engaged in the 
political process and said they hoped the U.N. Security 
Council would address the situation in Burma.  The CEC 
members were pleased to learn from us that the UNGA Third 
Committee had adopted a tough resolution on Burma, including 
a call for a full and independent investigation of the May 30 
assault, but they observed that the SPDC is "not the first 
government to ignore U.N. resolutions." 
 
7. (C) COM expressed strong support for the CEC leaders and 
briefed the Uncles on policy developments since their 
detention in June.  She noted that new U.S. sanctions had 
received overwhelming support from Congress and that the 
Administration remained focused on keeping up the pressure. 
She also told the Uncles that recent video footage of the NLD 
convoy, broadcast on November 28 by the BBC, had demonstrated 
to the world the phenomenal support that the democracy 
movement enjoys from the Burmese people.  COM also urged the 
Uncles to be realistic about expectations of UNSC action, 
given other, ongoing crises and opposition from some UNSC 
members.  U Than Tun replied to the latter point by asking 
"How can we neutralize the Chinese?"  We suggested as a 
starting point that the CEC members seek out a meeting with 
the Chinese Ambassador to exchange views. 
 
8. (C) We queried the elderly CEC members about plans for the 
future of the NLD party and how they intend to develop 
leaders from younger generations.  "We don't need them," 
replied U Nyunt Wei, explaining that young NLD members want 
democracy, but were raised under Burmese socialism and "know 
nothing about life and liberty."  The NLD leaders explained 
that the party and the CEC were formed in the midst of the 
1988 democracy demonstrations on a "consensus" basis and that 
the NLD's core leadership would continue to guide the party 
for the foreseeable future. 
 
Comment:  Change from Within or Without? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The released NLD CEC members are determined to remain 
politically active and to press ahead with reviving the 
democracy movement.  However, their immediate focus is on 
logistics, such as freeing ASSK and their other CEC 
colleagues and seeking to reopen party offices.  Without 
ASSK's direct leadership, however, the Uncles do not intend 
to implement any new party initiatives or develop a strategy 
to deal with an imminent National Convention and other SPDC 
actions.  The NLD Uncles see their hands as tied by ASSK's 
continued detention and may be hoping the answer to the 
political crisis lies in additional international pressure. 
"We don't want more sanctions, we want you to invade," said U 
Nyunt Wei as we departed.  Though his smile indicated he may 
have been joking, like many Burmese, the CEC members may have 
diminishing hopes that internal efforts can ultimately thwart 
authoritarian rule.  End comment. 
Martinez