US embassy cable - 03HARARE2332

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF TAKES PARLIAMENTARY SEAT FROM MDC - TWO 
THIRDS MAJORITY STILL ELUSIVE 
 
REF: HARARE 2179 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: ZANU-PF took a parliamentary seat from the 
MDC in a by-election held on November 29 - 30 in Kadoma 
Central.  Neither candidate articulated a campaign message in 
interviews with poloff who visited the area the day before 
voting began.  The MDC candidate alleged intimidation and 
voting irregularities but a larger factor was probably the 
difficulty of finding a credible candidate, and organizing 
and mobilizing effectively in the midst of ZANU-PF's 
Mashonaland heartland.  ZANU-PF still needs four more seats 
to obtain a two-thirds parliamentary majority.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Voting Days 
----------- 
 
2. (C) On December 1, MDC candidate Charles Mupandawana 
reported to poloff that " Ishmael Tichafa Mutema, the ZANU-PF 
candidate had won the poll with 9,282 votes to Mupandawana's 
6,038.  Mupandawana was present for the entire counting 
session and said the counting process was transparent.  He 
attributed his failure to win the seat to three factors: 1) 
intimidation, 2) insufficient resources, and 3) a lack of 
persistence among his supporters, i.e. when they were turned 
away inappropriately at one polling station they gave up 
rather than trying to vote at a different location. 
 
3. (U) Mupandawana claimed in a press interview that war 
veterans had fired shots into the air near one polling 
station on November 29 to scare away potential opposition 
voters.  Thomas Bvuma, Spokesperson for the Electoral 
Supervisory Commission (ESC), denied that any shots had been 
fired, and said voting proceeded peacefully on both days. 
 
4. (C) There was also an election for one rural district 
council seat in Nkayi.  Preliminary results from Harare MDC 
MP Trudy Stevenson were that the MDC won the seat; however, 
final voting counts are unavailable. 
 
MDC Candidate a Political Freshman 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Poloff was supposed to meet with Mupandawana, a 
secondary school teacher living in Harare and a political 
freshman contesting his late father's seat, on November 28 at 
Mupandawana's Kadoma home and MDC campaign command center; 
however, Mupandawana failed to arrive.  Other campaign 
officials said Mupandawana was otherwise engaged or groggy; 
during an hour-long meeting with his campaign staff, the 
candidate remained consistently "10-minutes away from 
arriving".  Members of Mupandawana's campaign team included 
MDC Mashonaland West Provincial Chairman Isaac Muzimba, 
Provincial Vice-Chair Charles Sibanda, Provincial Secretary 
Edgar Sithole and other officials.  About 50 MDC youths 
appeared to be camped out outside Mupandawana's 4-bedroom 
family home near a nickel refinery just outside Kadoma. 
 
6. (C) Sibanda and Sithole described various problems they 
had in the run-up to these elections.  On October 28 at the 
nomination court police officers blocked Mupandawana from 
entering.  MDC officials had anticipated this problem and had 
submitted the appropriate paperwork the previous day.  At the 
nomination court, Sithole claimed ZANU-PF youths stoned and 
egged MDC members.  Mupandawana said that he was nominated to 
be candidate after a meeting and voting process in which MDC 
regular, women's and youth wings from each of Kadoma's 16 
wards proposed names and voted as wings on who would be the 
candidate for the district.  This is in contrast to ZANU-PF 
candidates, who Mupandawana said are selected directly by the 
membership. 
 
7. (C) According to Mupandawana's campaign staff, ZANU-PF 
youths had camped out near the Mupandawana command center and 
on November 26 threw stones toward the house, injuring some 
MDC youths and damaging property.  Police arrived and 
arrested some 33 MDC members, including Mupandawana's 
campaign manager.  On November 27 police arrested six other 
MDC members during a similar incident.  Sibanda complained 
that 16 of their necessary 21 polling agents were among those 
arrested and still detained on November 28--the day before 
voting was to begin.  Sibanda said that the MDC usually 
prepares 2-3 extra polling agents for each polling station in 
case of arrests, but the secondary polling agents were not 
fully trained. 
8. (C) Sithole said that four of Kadoma's 21 polling stations 
would be "mobile", servicing areas recently resettled under 
the government's land reform program.  MDC officials 
anticipated that ZANU-PF would bus in extra voters from 
outside the district and make fraudulent additions to the 
voter's roll. 
 
9. (C) Sibanda said they tried to hold a rally on November 
22, but police canceled it because ZANU-PF booked the same 
venue at the same time--and then failed to hold an event. 
10. (C) Sibanda and Sithole said that although Mupandawana's 
father had won the 2000 election for this seat with 14,000 
votes to the ZANU-PF candidate's 5,000, voter apathy in the 
face of intimidation was their biggest enemy and could cause 
them to lose this time around.  (Note.  In August 2002 Kadoma 
elected a ZANU-PF Mayor, and in August 2003 a 16-member 
ZANU-PF city council.  End Note.) 
 
Beer with War Vets - Reality TV Zimbabwean Style 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
11. (C) Ishmael Tichafa Mutema, the ZANU-PF candidate, war 
veteran leader of mine invasions in Kadoma, and former 
Central Intelligence Office Presidential Guard member arrived 
1.5 hours late to a lunch meeting he requested with poloff. 
Poloff joined Mutema over a few rounds of beer in a 
conversation with seven other campaign staffers in military 
drab.  Soon after poloff sat down, a man with a video camera 
started filming the group and was introduced as a Zimbabwe 
Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) reporter.  Mutema made 
accusations that U.S. sanctions were hurting ordinary 
Zimbabweans, and that the U.S. was no longer helping the 
people of Zimbabwe but instead was funding the MDC.  The 
cameraman panned around the group and when it reached Mutema, 
the candidate launched into minutes long monologues 
condemning the violence perpetrated by the MDC during the 
campaign, noting that ZANU-PF would trust the police to 
maintain law and order, and saying that his victory was a 
forgone conclusion.  Mutema had no responses to poloff's 
queries about a campaign message or programs or projects he 
planned for Kadoma. 
 
ZANU-PF Mayor Open to Dialogue 
------------------------------ 
 
12. (C) On November 28 poloff also had a very cordial meeting 
with the ZANU-PF Mayor of Kadoma Phanuel Phiri, and the Town 
Clerk Malachia Chidimu.  Phiri described Kadoma's financial 
woes where inflation made the value of the town budget shrink 
monthly, but where unemployment from mine closures was 
widespread, and Phiri could not raise taxes to keep up.  He 
said the town desperately needed new water pumps but he was 
instead spending scarce resources just maintaining the town's 
old systems.  In years past Phiri said the town received 
funds from the GOZ for schools, health clinics and roads, but 
those had not been forthcoming for the past 3-4 years.  As 
head of the Urban Council's Association, Phiri said the GOZ 
was continuing to support rural councils financially, but not 
urban ones like Kadoma. 
 
13. (C) Phiri said ZANU-PF had just completed its 
restructuring exercise in Mashonaland West in preparation for 
the annual party conference.  He said Kadoma hoped to send 
some 48 representatives to the conference, contingent on 
resources. 
 
14. (C) Phiri and Chidimu expressed interest in soliciting 
funds from the USG to assist specifically with the water 
pumps problem.  They noted that their inquiries to 
U.S.-funded organizations to do projects in Kadoma had gone 
nowhere, they sensed because they were ZANU-PF members.  They 
noted that differences between the USG and GOZ were hurting 
ordinary Zimbabweans and hoped the situation would not 
continue indefinitely. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
15. (C) In many ways this was a very typical Zimbabwean 
election.  The ZANU-PF candidate was a war veteran who 
benefited from intimidation and possible improper 
manipulations.  He had no campaign message to speak of other 
than calling for unity with the MDC, and claiming to have won 
the poll before voting began.  The MDC candidate was a 
27-year old political freshman who claimed widespread popular 
support but alleged that intimidation, lack of resources, and 
lack of popular fighting spirit kept him from actually 
winning the election.  He had no apparent campaign message. 
 
16. (C) Although MDC officials have previously said that they 
needed to improve the vetting process for their candidates 
(Ref), the party faces an uphill battle as few charismatic, 
savvy and capable people would want to give up whatever 
successes they currently have to face the threats, 
intimidation and possibly worse, of an MDC campaign and 
public office. 
 
17. (C) While this was previously an MDC seat, ZANU-PF still 
needs four more seats to obtain a two-thirds parliamentary 
majority.  There are currently two more seats vacant, but no 
election date has been set for either one.  Gutu North fell 
vacant with the death of Vice-President Simon Muzenda, and 
Zengeza (near Harare) has been unfilled since November 2002, 
when MDC MP Tafadzwa Musekiwa moved to the U.K. and was 
granted asylum.  So far, the MDC has blocked the 
Parliamentary Speaker from declaring the Zengeza seat vacant. 
 It would also seem in the interest of the ruling party to 
keep the seat unfilled because it would be very expensive and 
controversial for the ZANU-PF to mount a successful campaign 
in an urban high-density suburb, traditionally a stronghold 
for the MDC. 
SULLIVAN