US embassy cable - 03SANTODOMINGO6931

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 006931 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL; NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #4 -- RE-ELECTIONISM 
 
 
Classified By: DCM LISA KUBISKE.  REASON: 1.5 (B/D). 
 
1.  (SBU) Following is the fourth in our series on the 
Dominican presidential election: 
 
RE-ELECTIONISM 
 
(U) Why does Dominican President Hipolito Mejia continue to 
drive toward re-election, in the face of increasingly vocal 
dissent?  The business sector and politicans are deeply 
worried about government finances and the possibility of 
runaway inflation.  Many Dominicans are seeking irrationally 
for a "magic bullet" against the financial crisis; some think 
that all will be well once again if only Mejia will face the 
facts and renounce his attempt at re-election. 
 
(SBU) The deeply personalistic nature of Dominincan politics 
encourages this simplistic view.  In fact, the crisis is 
systemic, rooted in the casual dealings, influence peddling 
and corruption of Dominican institutions.  Mejia is a winner 
in this environment and has shown great ability to get along. 
 Although he bears some responsibility for the financial 
crisis (because of the administration's decision to guarantee 
all -- repeat all -- the deposits in the failed Baninter), 
Mejia's early departure from the political scene would not 
solve the economic problem.  Just the opposite: he would 
forfeit all credibility in the tough dealings needed to meet 
the conditions for the IMF agreement.  To get that standby, 
this President needs to deliver in very short order a 2004 
budget which will include additional further taxes to 
increase revenue by about 0.6 percent of GDP.  That probably 
means obliging a nervous Congress to raise the value-added 
tax (VAT) for 2004 from 12 percent to 14 or 15 percent, a 
measure which must be voted by late December as part of the 
next budget. 
 
(SBU) Mejia is already walking a fine line between courting 
political support and accepting budget reality.  Perhaps to 
make the medicine of the coming austerity go down more 
smoothly, he just boosted hopes concerning medicine prices by 
issuing a decree exempting from import taxes the inputs and 
capital goods for the pharmaceutical industry, and he 
exempted books and magazines entirely from the VAT.  This 
week he publicly fudged comments on the IMF terms ("I will 
not sign any agreement which raises electricity rates" -- 
this at a time when his economic team is proposing monthly 
price adjustments, scaled according to consumption).  At the 
same time, he has reaffirmed privately to us his intention to 
sign an agreement with the IMF that includes both sharp 
spending cuts and tax increases. 
 
Voices against Re-election 
 
(C) Supreme Court President Jorge Subero Isa told an emboff 
in early November that pressure against Mejia's re-election 
effort was growing.  Respected intellectual Hugo Tolentino 
Dipp -- the former foreign minister who resigned over his 
disagreement with Mejia about sending Dominican troops to 
Iraq -- is among the notables talking against re-electionism. 
 He gave his "valued friend" Hipolito Mejia a good hard shove 
in that direction on November 13, publishing an elegantly 
worded, hard-hitting "Public Letter to the Honorable Hipolito 
Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic" in the 
government-owned daily Listin Diario. 
 
(U) Among Tolentino,s  grave, courtly  comments: 
 
"Can it perhaps be true that the fascination with the power 
to command, with the delight of seeing the obedience of the 
governed, and the vanity induced by ceremony and deference, 
have managed to bring the long-time PRD stalwart Hipolito 
Mejia to betray one of the most democratic traditions of the 
Dominican people and of the PRD?  I do not wish to believe 
it, despite the heavy doubts that weigh on my understanding 
and despite the strictly personal arguments of justification 
you used when casting yourself forward from the seat of power 
into a re-election effort.  In your justification, Mr. 
President, there was not a single consideration, not even an 
inappropriate one, which could be interpreted as addressing a 
national interest." 
 
 and 
 
"The tradition of continual presidential re-election - - 
'continuism' - - has been a heavy burden for the Dominican 
people, Mr. President.  Do not go along that road believing 
you will be the exceptional man who will justify yourself and 
overcome the severe damage that 're-electionism'  has 
inflicted on the Dominican Republic.  Vehement ambition 
followed in pursuit of remaining in power has always been 
linked with the deliberate frustration of popular will.  And 
this is even more so, for when dealing with elections in 
which the President of the Republic is a candidate, our 
institutions lack the necessary independence and sufficient 
moral stature to guarantee complete transparency of the 
results.  Refusing to recognize this reality, our 
're-electionists' have marked their futures with the stigma 
of illegitimacy and even of despotism." 
 
(SBU) Tolentino Dipp does not speak for any particular 
faction of the PRD, but his lofty exposition of the PRD's 
traditional opposition to presidential re-election has all 
the more resonance for that. 
 
(U) The Catholic Church, a traditionally influential voice in 
civil society, has felt called upon to express its concern at 
a time of perceived national crisis.  On November 26, the 
Conference of Dominican Bishops, comprising 19 prelates 
headed by Archbishop Nicolas de Jesus Lopez Rodriguez, 
asserted in a document demanding reforms to deal with the 
crisis, "There are those who believe that the renunciation by 
the honorable President of his candidacy for re-election 
would highly favor social peace, confidence, and 
governability.  We leave this to his conscience."  To their 
credit, the bishops also called for called for cuts in public 
spending, removal of corrupt government officials, and public 
and private efforts to restore business confidence. 
 
(U) Two Protestant evangelical organizations also recommended 
this past week that the President "examine his conscience" on 
the issue. 
 
(U) Elena Viyella, president of the National Council of 
Private Enterprise, has consistently characterized the 
President's re-election effort as a source of uncertainty and 
concern for the private sector.  Marisol Vicens, the lawyer 
who heads the National Young Entrepreneurs Association, is 
unambiguous in urging the President not to run. 
 
A PPH vision 
 
(C) President Mejia is playing a forceful, calculated 
re-election game. On November 22 he opened a new headquarters 
for his PRD/PPH (Proyecto Presidencial Hipolito), and on 
November 30 he officially registered his candidacy for 
nomination at a party convention December 14.  To a question 
about his re-election bid, he shot back, "Stop asking me 
that.  No way I'm going to withdraw."  PRD insiders tell us 
that his campaign is basing its approach on the results of 
privately commissioned polls showing he can take 58 percent 
of the votes in the PRD convention.  These players believe 
that PRD President Hatuey Descamps can gather less than 10 
percent of party support for his rival convention on December 
7 intended to reject re-electionism.  The mid-levels of the 
national PRD machine -- including mayors, city councils, and 
legislators who have benefited from Mejia's public works 
projects and other government spending -- provide a still 
considerable base of support.  Looking further out, Mejia 
loyalists think that the President has a good prospect of 
besting Leonel Fernandez (PLD) in a second round on June 30, 
in part by attracting voters who will have supported 
Reformista (PRSC) candidate Eduardo Estrella in the first 
round May 16.  Working on those assumptions, the PPH is not 
paying much attention to the anti-re-electionistas. 
 
The Burden of History 
 
(U) Mejia's critics oppose his re-election not only because 
of their objections to his policies, but because of the 
Dominican Republic's history of manipulated voting in 
presidential elections.  The late strongman Joaquin Balaguer, 
operating in a formally democratic political system, 
accumulated 22 years in power through repeated use of 
military intervention, violence, press restrictions and fraud 
during elections.  International and domestic outrage forced 
him to step down in the face of an overwhelming opposition 
victory (in 1978) and to accept an abbreviated term and a 
constitutional change prohibiting re-election (in 1994). 
Mejia used his control of Congress to abolish the 
constitutional ban in 2002. 
 
(end text) 
 
2.  (U) Drafters:  Michael Meigs, Bainbridge Cowell 
HERTELL