US embassy cable - 03KINSHASA3015

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 003015 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2008 
TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PINS, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: WANTED: LEADERSHIP AT DRC'S HELM 
 
REF: KINSHASA 2653 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF EDWARD BESTIC FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  AFTER AN INITIAL BURST OF ACTIVITY, THE 
DRC'S TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS LOST MOMENTUM TOWARDS 
REUNIFYING THE COUNTRY.  PRESIDENT KABILA IN PARTICULAR HAS 
FAILED TO ENERGIZE HIS CUMBERSOME GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE, BUT 
PARLIAMENT AND MINISTERS HAVE LIKEWISE FAILED THE LEADERSHIP 
CHALLENGE.  FAILING TO BREAK THE LEADERSHIP LOGJAM COULD 
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED SOLDIERY AND POPULACE, 
AND POSTPONED NATIONAL ELECTIONS.  POST, IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
OTHER KEY DIPLOMATIC ACTORS, IS WORKING TO JUMP-START JOSEPH 
KABILA AND HIS STALLING TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
STUCK AT FIRST BASE 
------------------- 
2. (C) AFTER AN INITIAL BURST OF ACTIVITY--SWEARING-IN OF THE 
NEW GOVERNMENT IN JULY, INAUGURATION OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST, 
CREATION OF AN INTEGRATED MILITARY COMMAND STRUCTURE IN 
SEPTEMBER, AND APPOINTMENT OF MILITARY REGION COMMANDERS IN 
OCTOBER--THE DRC'S TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS SETTLED INTO A 
LAZY PATTERN OF DRIFT AND NEGLECT.  THE COUNTRY IS STILL 
DIVIDED IN FACT, WITH EACH OF THE FORMER WARRING FACTIONS 
STILL EFFECTIVELY IN CONTROL OF "ITS" TERRITORY.  THERE HAS 
BEEN VIRTUALLY NO ORGANIZED PROGRESS ON DEMOBILIZATION OF 
FORMER COMBATANTS OR UNIFICATION OF THE VARIOUS ARMIES.  THE 
POLICE, INTELLIGENCE, IMMIGRATION, TERRITORIAL 
ADMINISTRATION, DIPLOMATIC SERVICES AND STATE-OWNED 
ENTERPRISES ALL REMAIN UNINTEGRATED.  APPARENTLY LULLED BY 
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS, ITURI HAS VIRTUALLY FALLEN OFF THE 
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT'S RADAR SCREEN. 
 
3. (C) ENGROSSED IN SELF-ORGANIZATION, PARLIAMENT HAS ADOPTED 
ONLY TWO SETS OF MINOR LEGISLATION SINCE IT WAS INAUGURATED 
IN LATE AUGUST, NAMELY, THE 2003 BUDGET (COVERING ONLY THE 
LAST SIX WEEKS IN CY2003), AND A SERIES OF AGREEMENTS ON 
INTERNATIONAL LOANS.  THE LIST OF KEY OUTSTANDING LEGISLATION 
IS LONG AND INCLUDES THE 2004 BUDGET PLUS LAWS ON THE 
ELECTORAL SYSTEM, NATIONALITY, DECENTRALIZATION, POLITICAL 
PARTIES AND THE FIVE "CIVIL INSTITUTIONS."  (NOTE:  ACCORDING 
TO THE TRANSITIONAL CONSTITUTION, ORGANIC LAWS ON THE LATTER 
WERE SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN ADOPTED WITHIN THE FIRST THIRTY 
DAYS OF PARLIAMENT.  END NOTE.)  KABILA'S DEPUTY CABINET 
DIRECTOR, GUILLAUME SAMBA KAPUTO, TOLD DCM 26 NOVEMBER THAT 
PARLIAMENT WOULD LIKELY HAVE A JANUARY RECESS.  GIVEN THAT 
THE OVERALL PACE IN KINSHASA TENDS TO SLOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS, 
THIS MEANS THAT PARLIAMENT WOULD NOT REALLY BEGIN TO WORK 
AGAIN UNTIL FEBRUARY. 
 
 
A LEADERSHIP VACUUM 
------------------- 
4. (C) INSTEAD OF WORKING TO SOLVE PROBLEMS, THE TOP 
POLITICAL LEADERS IN KINSHASA ARE MORE INTERESTED IN 
APPORTIONING BLAME FOR INERTIA.  IN RECENT MEETINGS WITH THE 
AMBASSADOR, THREE OF THE FOUR VICE-PRESIDENTS EACH BLAMED 
OTHERS FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S INACTION.  PRESIDENT JOSEPH 
KABILA, HABITUALLY SLOW TO MAKE DECISIONS, SHOWS FEW PUBLIC 
SIGNS OF INITIATIVE OR LEADERSHIP.  HE MEETS WITH HIS FOUR 
VICE-PRESIDENTS ONLY SPORADICALLY; THERE IS LITTLE 
SUBSTANTIVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THEM.  SAMBA KAPUTO HIMSELF 
TOLD DCM ON 26 NOVEMBER THAT THE CUMBERSOME 61-MEMBER COUNCIL 
OF MINISTERS RATHER THAN THE "PRESIDENCY" (KABILA AND HIS 
VP'S) IS SUPPOSED TO SERVE AS THE MAIN DECISION-MAKING BODY. 
 
5. (C) THE INERTIA BEGINS AT THE TOP, BUT THROUGHOUT THE 
GOVERNMENT THERE IS A MARKED LACK OF ENERGY AND ATTENTION TO 
THE IMMEDIATE ISSUES.  FEW OFFICIALS APPEAR TO BE DEVOTING 
LONG HOURS TO THEIR WORK WHEN THEY ARE IN KINSHASA.  KABILA 
HIMSELF CHOSE TO SPEND A FULL WEEK IN KATANGA IN 
MID-NOVEMBER, MEETING WITH LOCAL POLITICOS AND REPORTEDLY 
DRIVING HIS 4X4 HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS TO PERSONALLY INSPECT 
ROAD CONDITIONS.  OTHER OFFICIALS HAVE PREFERRED TO SPEND 
THEIR TIME TRAVELING ABROAD, INCLUDING NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
PRESIDENT OLIVIER KAMITATU, WHO RECENTLY SPENT TWO WEEKS IN 
EUROPE.  ON 27 NOVEMBER THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT ON THE DAY OF 25 NOVEMBER, FIVE DIFFERENT 
CONGOLESE MINISTERS WERE IN PARIS. 
 
 
TIME, PATIENCE WEARING THIN? 
---------------------------- 
6. (C) ONE IMMEDIATE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT'S 
LEISURELY PACE IS AN INVOLUNTARY DISSEMINATION OF AUTHORITY 
TO THE PROVINCES, WHERE REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDERS ARE 
RUNNING AD-HOC DDR PROGRAMS AND SOME GOVERNORS ARE 
CONSOLIDATING THEIR FIEFDOMS.  ANOTHER EFFECT OF FAILING TO 
MEET--OR AT LEAST MANAGE--PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS IS RISING 
LEVELS OF DISCONTENT AMONG THE POPULACE.  THERE HAVE BEEN 
INITIAL SIGNS OF FRUSTRATION AMONG THE MOSTLY-UNPAID FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY, DUE TO NON-PAYMENT OF SALARIES. 
ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS--IN A MASSIVE COUNTRY WITH DEVASTATED 
INFRASTRUCTURE AND VIRTUALLY NO DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE--HAVE ALSO 
STALLED AT THE INITIAL PLANNING STAGE.  THE TRANSITIONAL 
GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY USED UP ALMOST A QUARTER OF ITS 
SELF-IMPOSED 24 MONTH DEADLINE FOR HOLDING NATIONAL ELECTIONS, 
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL EXTEND PAST TWO PERMISSIBLE 
SIX-MONTH EXTENSIONS INTO LEGAL NEVER-NEVER LAND. 
 
 
GROUP INTERVENTION FOR DRC'S DYSFUNCTIONAL LEADERS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
7. (C) THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT URGENTLY NEEDS TO FOCUS ON 
REGAINING ITS LOST MOMENTUM, AND JOSEPH KABILA NEEDS TO BE 
GOADED INTO ASSUMING HIS RESPONSIBILITIES AS HEAD OF STATE--A 
POSITION HE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN.  THE AMBASSADOR WILL 
PARTICIPATE IN A DECEMBER 2 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMITTEE TO SUPPORT THE TRANSITION (CIAT), WHICH HAS A 
THREE-FOLD AGENDA:  FIRST, TO REQUEST A MEETING WITH KABILA, 
THE VICE-PRESIDENTS, AND THE LEADERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND SHARE 
THE CIAT'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION WITH THEM;  SECOND, TO 
URGE THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT TO GET BACK TO WORK;  AND 
THIRD, TO PROPOSE SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO REENERGIZE THE 
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT SUCH AS SENDING MIXED OFFICIAL 
DELEGATIONS TO EASTERN CONGO, REMITTANCE OF REVENUES 
COLLECTED IN EX-REBEL TERRITORIES TO THE CENTRAL COFFER, AND 
ADOPTION OF A NATIONAL DEMOBILIZATION PLAN. 
 
 
HOOKS