US embassy cable - 03ABUJA2029

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002029 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI, OVIP 
SUBJECT: ANPP CHAIRMAN ETIEBET ON THE PAST ELECTION, 
NIGERIA'S FUTURE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
 
1. (C) Don Etiebet, Chairman of Nigeria's main opposition 
party, the ANPP, met with PolOff on the margins of a hearing 
at the election tribunal of ANPP presidential candidate 
Buhari's appeal against the April 2003 elections.  Etiebet 
commented that the case was going well but that he remained 
concerned about whether the judges could decide without 
interference from the Presidency.  He provided an assessment 
of the elections and USG responsibility for their outcome, 
and offered advice for upcoming elections.  He then expressed 
concern about insecurity in Nigeria and the potential for 
future problems.  Etiebet said that he and Buhari were likely 
to visit Washington soon and were putting together a team, a 
timeline and an agenda for a visit.  Etiebet's assessment of 
Nigeria's future was gloomy, and not just because his party 
lost the election.  He is a businessman and politician who 
has been through both good times and bad, and is concerned 
that worse is coming.  End Summary. 
 
 
BUHARI SUIT HEARINGS CONTINUE PROBE OF 2003 ELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
2. (C) ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet met with PolOff November 20 
during a hearing of the Buhari suit against the April, 2003 
elections.  Etiebet, a founding member of the ruling PDP and 
a presidential candidate at its 1999 convention, switched to 
the ANPP after his becoming disillusioned with the PDP during 
Obasanjo's first term.  Etiebet claims that when he made the 
switch, he lost a long-term information consulting contract 
with Shell Oil, and all of the employees of his business were 
hired away by the new contractor to manage the proprietary 
software his company had installed. 
 
 
3. (C) Etiebet said that Nigeria "held no elections" in 2003. 
 He pointed to the logistical failures in the runup to the 
elections and claimed that he had expressed his reservations 
at every turn.  Etiebet claimed INEC Chairman Guobadia is a 
personal friend, and that he had warned Guobadia about the 
faulty ballot papers, the lack of a voters list and 
logistical issues throughout the runup to the elections. 
Etiebet commented that Buhari's case was going well and 
expressed pleasure that the intimidation and manipulation 
during the election were finally coming out.  Etiebet 
expressed concern, however, about the ultimate outcome of the 
case. 
 
 
4. (C) Etiebet said he and Buhari believe there are two 
possible outcomes.  He speculated that if the judges bowed to 
Presidential pressure and found in Obasanjo's favor (or 
declared that new elections would be "disruptive," as 
Obasanjo's lawyer was contending in court), Nigerians would 
decide that neither the government nor the judiciary is "for 
the common man."  If the appeal went on to the next level, 
and the Supreme Court ordered fresh elections after judging 
the case "on its merits," in Etiebet's view, "Obasanjo would 
ignore the ruling of the court."  Etiebet commented that in 
either situation, "the likelihood for civil unrest and 
anarchy would be high."  He stated that he had never seen 
such disillusionment with a government as Obasanjo 
engendered, "not even during the Abacha days."  Etiebet said 
that according to his sources, the military, civil society 
and even the President's own party were all aligning against 
what he termed a "do-nothing" administration.  "Obasanjo 
takes all challenges personally and devotes himself to 
exacting revenge on anyone who dares to question him," 
Etiebet said. 
 
 
CRITICISM OF THE U.S. ROLE 
-------------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) ANPP Chairman Etiebet only partially blamed the 
international community for the failure of the elections, but 
said the public viewed the USG as the "culprit" who had 
engineered Obasanjo's second term.  "Nigerians believe that 
Obasanjo was America's candidate, and that creates 
difficulties in mounting pressure to clean up the corrupt 
system," he commented.  Etiebet said U.S. and European 
technical support for the elections was appreciated but 
"ineffective."  "Nigerians are among the most politically 
aware people in the world," he said, "and there is no need to 
train them how to run elections."  Etiebet instead suggested 
that all the international resources would be better spent in 
sending an observer team of sufficient size to cover the 
entire country, and empowering them to at least "broadcast 
the deficiencies on election day."  Even better, he mused, 
would be giving the international observers authority to 
suspend or cancel elections in areas where problems were 
observed. 
 
 
6. (C) Etiebet lamented, "We have the knowledge to hold a 
free election, but we lack the political will to see it 
through."  He suggested that at least three international 
observers should be "embedded" in INEC:  one at the 
commissioner level with broad authority to participate in the 
decision-making process there, one at the logistics level to 
ensure proper handling and delivery of materials, and a third 
in the information systems area to guard against manipulation 
of voters lists and returns.  INEC told the Buhari court 
judges yet again on November 20 that it still cannot produce 
the National Voters Register nor polling station tally 
sheets, seven months after they were required for the 
election and six months after the court subpoenaed them. 
 
 
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE 
--------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Etiebet then turned to Nigeria's future political 
landscape.  "The next (2007) election is a long way off,"  he 
said.  He identified the continuing discontent with 
Obasanjo's "dictatorial" approach to governance and the 
steadily deteriorating state of security in the nation as the 
two things which could cause Nigeria's Fourth Republic to 
fail.  Etiebet claimed the ANPP leadership was responsible 
for maintaining the relative calm on Nigeria's streets in the 
wake of the "worst rigging in Nigeria's history."  By taking 
the issue to court first rather than directly to the streets, 
Etiebet averred, Nigerians were being patient and relatively 
nonviolent.  "Nigerians will not remain complacent forever -- 
if the courts do not take action, it will be difficult to 
control the street," he warned.  He also expressed concern 
over the level of discontent in the military, commenting that 
talk of a coup was now "the rule rather than the exception." 
 
 
8. (C) Etiebet said that he had been working with Buhari to 
plan a trip to Washington to press the case against the April 
2003 elections.  He said they hoped to meet with ranking 
Department officials as well as National Security Advisor 
Rice, congressional and media contacts.  Etiebet said that no 
firm date had been proposed, but that mid- to late-January 
was most likely.  The group's agenda was primarily to spread 
the word about the election's irregularities and the 
potential for a military coup or other civil unrest in the 
coming months. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
9. (C) All of this would seem sour grapes coming from a 
politician who lost out within the PDP in 1999, and then 
chaired the ANPP to losing in 2003.  But Etiebet was speaking 
immediately after one of the best days yet for Buhari's suit 
against President Obasanjo and INEC.  Obasanjo's defense 
lawyer was arguing that INEC's election materials did not 
meet the standards of evidence, while INEC's defense lawyer 
was telling the court again that the "Independent" National 
Electoral Commission still did not have materials the 
Election Act had required before the April 2003 election 
could have been legally held.  The ANPP views the court 
hearings as proving Buhari's case, and Etiebet was thus less 
the fox of the fable than the Bible's widow continuing to 
beseech the judge.  Given ANPP supporters' doubts that 
Nigeria's courts will be permitted to overturn the election, 
Buhari's U.S. trip will be played to ANPP supporters as an 
appeal to the Washington they believe has the final say. 
MEECE