US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL1760

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISTANBUL 001760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2013 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, PGOV, ASEC, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: A NEW FRONT FOR INTERNATIONAL TERROR 
 
REF: A) ISTANBUL 1703 & 1711 B) ISTANBUL 1744 & 1752 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d) 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: Istanbul is slowly recovering from the shock 
of two separate sets of terrorist bombings that claimed over 
50 lives and wounded 750 in one week.  Although both the 
synagogue bombings (ref a) and the latest bombings of the 
British Consulate and HSBC Turkey headquarters (ref b) appear 
to have had specific targets, there is little doubt among 
public opinion that Turkey has become a new front for the war 
against international terror.  Even as investigators continue 
their search for the perpetrators and their accomplices, 
there is widespread speculation regarding the possible 
motives, targets, and messages of the attacks.  Despite some 
calls for disassociating Turkey from U.S. policies in Iraq 
and Israel, the attacks do not appear to have changed 
people's minds, but only to have reinforced what people 
already believed.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (U) Who dunnit?: Public reaction to the attacks has moved 
from shock to anger.  The thrust of the anger appears to be 
directed at a faceless, nebulous terrorist threat.  Most 
accept official government statements that the attacks were 
carried out by Turkish citizens linked to extreme Islamic 
groups like IBDA-C (the Great Islamic Eastern Anatolian 
Raiders) and Hizbollah (an indigenous Turkish group, 
reportedly sponsored by Iran).  A majority also believe that 
these groups probably had some support from the Al-Qaeda 
international terrorist network.  On the other hand, there is 
a minority that questions whether Turks, or at least 
Islamists, were involved at all.  Some believe instead that 
the terrorists may have been secretly funded and supported by 
the U.S. or Israel in an effort to poison Turkey against 
radical Islamic groups (this viewpoint has also been 
articulated by several television commentators and printed in 
the local Islamic press).  Asked whether such a conspiracy 
theory seems a little far-fetched, a shopkeeper and barber 
separately told poloff cryptically that "anything is possible 
in politics." 
 
 
3. (U) Why?: Among those who accept the apparent links with 
international terrorism, there is still widespread 
disagreement over what motivated the bombers.  Were the 
attacks designed to send a message to Israel, the U.K. and 
the U.S.?  Or, were they aimed at Turkey for supporting those 
governments and designed to destabilize Turkey's secular 
democracy?  This debate is likely to continue for some time. 
Protestors at a "peace rally" over the weekend reflected the 
diversity of opinions, with some calling for cutting ties 
with the U.S. and others calling for greater international 
cooperation against terrorism.  Our sense from our contacts 
here is that neither Turkey's democracy nor its relationship 
with the U.S. is directly threatened in the wake of these 
attacks. 
 
 
4. (U) What now?: Hotels and shopkeepers are already 
lamenting the negative impact that these attacks have had on 
one of the city's economic mainstays: tourism.  Shopkeepers 
in the Grand Bazaar remarked that the flow of visiting 
tourists had slowed to a trickle since the attacks.  The Four 
Seasons and other five-star hotels have already had numerous 
cancellations.  Most Turks here now anticipate, moreover, 
that with these attacks some sort of invisible line seems to 
have been crossed by international terrorists and that there 
will be more such attacks in the future.  Consequently, they 
are supportive of the government's intentions and efforts to 
investigate, apprehend, and prosecute the perpetrators as 
quickly and efficiently as possible.  Asked by poloff what 
Turkey should do now, a taxi driver shrugged and said that 
Turkey "must continue to work with other countries in the 
struggle against international terrorism." 
 
 
5. (C) Comment: Reaction to the attacks is still settling in, 
but like Americans after September 11, many here see that 
their world has changed and wonder what will happen next. 
This reflectiveness does not characterize everyone, of 
course: those who were previously anti-American and did not 
believe that al-Queda carried out the September 11 attacks 
have not abandoned their views, but now want to see a U.S. 
hand either directly or indirectly causing the attack on 
Turkey.  But the mainstream of the population, including the 
Government and Security Services, seems to recognize the 
international cooperation is essential to fight this scourge 
and that Turkey's western democratic orientation must 
continue. 
ARNETT