US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2496

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (KABUMOTO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: WHO WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL? HDZ LOOKS FOR COALITION 
PARTNERS 
 
REF: ZAGREB 2487 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) DESPITE HIS OVERWHELMING VICTORY IN THE NOVEMBER 23 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, HDZ PRESIDENT IVO SANADER MAY HAVE TO 
WORK OVERTIME TO FORM A COALITION.  THE HDZ WON 66 OUT OF 152 
SEATS IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT, MAKING 77 THE "MAGIC NUMBER" 
FOR A GOVERNMENT PROPOSED BY IVO SANADER TO WIN A VOTE OF 
CONFIDENCE.  WHILE WE EXPECT SANADER WILL BE ABLE TO CUT THE 
NECESSARY BACK-ROOM DEALS TO MAKE UP THIS ELEVEN-SEAT 
SHORTFALL, IT MIGHT TAKE MORE TIME THAN HE ORIGINALLY 
EXPECTED.  IT MAY BE AS LATE AS DECEMBER 5 BEFORE PRESIDENT 
MESIC FORMALLY NAMES SANADER AS THE PM-DESIGNATE, AND 
THEORETICALLY IT COULD BE EVEN LATER.  SANADER WOULD NOT 
BECOME PRIME MINISTER UNTIL LATE DECEMBER AT THE EARLIEST. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) HDZ PRESIDENT IVO SANADER HAS ALREADY TAKEN HIS 
VICTORY LAP AND SDP PRESIDENT (AND FORMER PM) IVICA RACAN HAS 
ALREADY CONCEDED DEFEAT AFTER THE NOVEMBER 23 ELECTION, BUT 
SANADER STILL NEEDS TO LINE UP COALITION PARTNERS TO ENSURE 
HE HAS A MAJORITY IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT.  BEFORE PRESIDENT 
MESIC WILL OFFICIALLY NAME SANADER AS THE PM-DESIGNATE AND 
INSTRUCT HIM TO FORM CROATIA'S NEXT GOVERNMENT, SANADER MUST 
DEMONSTRATE THAT HIS PROPOSAL WILL PASS A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE. 
 
 
3.  (C) THE NUMBER OF SEATS IN CROATIA'S PARLIAMENT IS NOT 
FIXED BEFORE ELECTIONS.  PARLIAMENTARY SEATS ARE AWARDED TO A 
DISTRICT MADE UP OF OUT-OF-COUNTRY VOTERS (THE "DIASPORA 
DISTRICT") BASED ON VOTER TURNOUT.  ENOUGH DIASPORA VOTERS 
TURNED OUT ON NOVEMBER 23 TO SEAT FOUR MPS, BRINGING THE 
    TOTAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN CROATIA'S NEXT PARLIAMENT TO 152. 
THAT MEANS SANADER NEEDS 77 VOTES TO WIN A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE 
FOR HIS GOVERNMENT. 
 
4.  (C) SANADER HAD EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO RELY ON THE 
SUPPORT OF A GROUPING OF THE HSLS/DC, BUT THOSE PARTIES FARED 
FAR POORER THAN EXPECTED ON ELECTION DAY AND TOGETHER WON 
ONLY THREE SEATS.  THE HDZ TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON NOVEMBER 24 
(REF) THAT THE HDZ WOULD SEEK TO MAKE A DEAL WITH THE 
CROATIAN PEASANTS' PARTY (HSS) TO AVOID HAVING TO FORM A 
GOVERNMENT WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE RIGHT-WING CROATIAN PARTY 
OF RIGHT (HSP).  THE HSS HAS ALREADY INDICATED THAT IT IS 
WILLING TO DEAL, BUT WITH ONLY TEN SEATS, THE HDZ WILL HAVE 
TO MAKE AN OFFER TO THE HSLS/DC AS WELL. 
 
5.  (C) HSS PRESIDENT ZLATKO TOMCIC WILL TRY TO DRIVE A HARD 
BARGAIN.  WHILE THE HSS WAS A RELIABLE COALITION PARTNER FOR 
RACAN'S SDP, IT OPPOSED SOME ECONOMIC REFORMS AND BLOCKED ANY 
AGGRESSIVE PRIVATIZATION POLICY.  SINCE THE ELECTION, TOMCIC 
HAS MADE PUBLIC THE HSS CRITERIA FOR JOINING A COALITION: A 
MORE DELIBERATE PACE OF ECONOMIC REFORM WITH A STRONGER STATE 
ROLE; WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW FAR SANADER IS WILLING 
TO BEND.  THE HSP, HOWEVER,  HAS BEEN PUBLICLY SIGNALING ITS 
WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE ON ANY ISSUE -- EVEN COOPERATION 
WITH ICTY -- JUST TO GET INTO GOVERNMENT.  THE HDZ WELL 
UNDERSTANDS THAT THE HSP'S NATIONALIST BAGGAGE WOULD NOT HELP 
CROATIA'S ASPIRATIONS FOR EU AND NATO MEMBERSHIP.  BUT IF 
SANADER CANNOT MAKE A DEAL WITH TOMCIC, HE WILL NEED EVERY 
ONE OF THE HSP'S EIGHT SEATS AND ALL THREE FROM HSLS/DC TO 
HAVE A ONE-VOTE MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT. 
 
    6.  (C) IN A NOVEMBER 25 MEETING WITH THE DCM, PRESIDENT 
MESIC'S ADVISER IVICA MASTRUKO TOLD US THAT MESIC WOULD BEGIN 
FORMAL CONSULTATIONS WITH POLITICAL LEADERS ON NAMING SANADER 
AS PM-DESIGNATE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
MASTRUKO SAID THAT MESIC WILL INSIST ON SEEING SIGNED 
AGREEMENTS FROM SANADER'S FUTURE PARTNERS PLEDGING THEIR 
SUPPORT.  MASTRUKO WAS CERTAIN THAT SANADER WOULD EVENTUALLY 
BE NAMED AS PM-DESIGNATE, BUT REJECTED HDZ ASSERTIONS THAT 
THE ETHNIC SERB PARTIES MIGHT SERIOUSLY CONSIDER ENTERING A 
FORMAL COALITION TO SUPPORT SANADER. 
 
7.  (C) "OFFICIAL" RESULTS OF THE NOVEMBER 23 ELECTION MAY BE 
DELAYED.  BECAUSE ONE EXTRA, UNACCOUNTED-FOR BALLOT WAS FOUND 
IN A BALLOT BOX, ELECTIONS WILL BE REPEATED IN ONE DISTRICT 
OUTSIDE OF ZAGREB ON NOVEMBER 30.  THE RESULT OF THIS RE-VOTE 
CAN IN NO WAY AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION, BUT THE 
OVERALL RESULTS MAY NOW NOT BECOME OFFICIAL UNTIL AS LATE AS 
DECEMBER 5.  MASTRUKO SAID THE PARLIAMENT'S FIRST SESSION  -- 
WHERE SANADER AND HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD RECEIVE AN OFFICIAL 
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE -- COULD POSSIBLY TAKE PLACE IN LATE 
DECEMBER OR MORE PROBABLY IN EARLY JANUARY. 
FRANK 
 
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